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Posts Tagged ‘Twitter’

Twitter “worth” twice the New York Times

Thursday, 16 December 2010 15:48 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Yes, that’s the headline making the rounds, and I suppose it is a signpost on the way to the future of media. Twitter just raised an additional $200 million, bringing its market cap to $3.7 billion. We are then reminded that this is twice the market capital of the “New York Times Company,” which apparently produces a small local weekly shopper tabloid in the Long Island metropolitan area, so the comparison is a Big Deal.

Question: What does Twitter do to make money?

Google: They have a clear business model: give search and YouTube and mail away for free, and stuff them full of target ads based on what the user is doing at the moment. Brilliant, profitable, and results in a $500 per share stock price.

Facebook: They have managed to get every human being on the planet to connect to each other and post pictures of their respective pets and undignified moments from high school. The humans all agree tacitly to let this data be harvested, which is bought by market researchers and advertisers. Clear, a bit more complex ethically, but likely monetizeable.

New York Times: Long form, urbane in-depth journalism with ads on every other page. Clear, 20th century , maybe-profitable-again-one-day business model.

Twitter: …sponsored tweets? Some people pay for them?

First, while I love Twitter and find it functional, until I understand what they buy low and sell high, I will reserve judgment on their business model and what it means for other companies.

Second, they shouldn’t be compared to the New York Times. Yes, newspapers are on hard times. Yes, their model was more successful in the 20th century. But the insight provided by long-form journalism is not remotely equivalent to 140 character blasts about “Dang, it’s snowy and mah car is burried!”

Just because something is no longer hip does not mean you should underestimate its importance. If I said “railroads” and “Chevy Volt,” which term would have more relevance to the “hotness” of 2010? Well, Berkshire Hathaway dropped $44 billion to acquire the Burlington Northern Sante Fe railroad. Very 19th century in terms of hipness, I’ll grant you, but Buffett is no dummy.

Facebook will be worse than an abandoned shopping mall

Tuesday, 25 May 2010 10:09 Written by Eric Garland 4 Comments

Facebook will be worse than an abandoned shopping mall, and Twitter is doomed – or so sayeth my favorite comic, Patton Oswalt. (While it may seem to strange to cite standup comics for business insight, I submit that there’s nothing more comical than most of mainstream business television right now.) As such, I thought that his announcement that he is joining Twitter contained some cutting analysis on the future of social networks and the stability of their business models in an era of ultra-easy product substitution:

So, I’m joining Twitter this Saturday.

And, eventually, whatever replaces it.

I was on Friendster. It collapsed. I jumped on MySpace, and now it’s pretty much an abandoned shopping mall. I still get about 30 Friend Requests and 15 messages in my Inbox every day, but they’re all mailing list bullshit for bands I’ll never listen to, or porno-bots promoting some young Eurasian hottie. Even the comments are clearly all bot-generated. An abandoned mall still had trash, heating and cleaning services drop by, I guess.

I’ll still update my calendar and galleries here, but that’ll be about it.

Don’t feel bad, MySpace. Facebook is also, clearly, on the way out. Constant spam ads, weird privacy wormholes — yuck. Any social networking site, like a great punk band or TV show, has entropy and collapse built into its biography.

Remember how fun Friendster was for those three or four months?

His scenarios, however, are my favorite:

And Twitter will collapse, too. What will replace it? Here are my 3 predictions:

BlipBlap: Basically Twitter, but only 17 characters allowed, and no vowels. Xclnt!

Wh1ff: The first-ever “scent site” — you update your status from an “odor board” of 170 different scents. “(Snnnnnnfff) Patton had chili for lunch and he’s somewhere humid.”

DanzaQuip: Every single status update on this site is first sent to Tony Danza’s personal e-mail. He then decides which ones to post, and is the only one who can respond or comment. (*This site will replace the U.S. Post Office in 2027)

Really, is it any stranger than a prediction that 400 million people would voluntarily post embarrassing photos online in an ultra-complex social web of their coworkers and former elementary school classmates?

The attention model for Web 2.0 is different than the advertising model

Thursday, 19 March 2009 12:44 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Great column from Andrew Keen regarding the different business models represented by Twitter and by the rest of Media 2.0.

He points out, correctly, that Twitter values attention, while advertising only values the likeliness of people to purchase something. You can do whatever you would like with attention: start a political movement, encourage sales, provoke conversation. Advertising is measured solely by the likelihood that the target market will open their wallet.

It will be interesting to see what business model Twitter ultimately chooses. At some point, they will need to ask people for money.

Google CEO thinks Twitter is “poor man’s email” – and misses the point

Friday, 06 March 2009 10:55 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Andrew Keen thinks he just saw Google flash a bit of uncharacteristic fear. Asked about Twitter at the Morgan Stanley technology conference, his reaction to the rapidly-expanding service was:

Speaking as a computer scientist, I view all of these as sort of poor man’s email systems.

It’s not the first time I have seen established players take potshots at Twitter. A couple weeks ago, the Washington Post released some snark about, “Who cares what you have for breakfast?” And here, Google’s Schmidt think that Twitter fails because it’s not a very good email system.

He misses the point entirely – it’s not an email system, it’s a true social network, an unprecedented conversation.  What I find important about Twitter is that I had forgotten about Andrew Keen since his book Cult of the Amateur came out slaying the sacred cows of Web 2.0 populism. A good book, but not enough to get me following the author’s every move. But his Twitter posts show what he’s up to, which is interesting and refreshing in a sea of likeminded herd-followers. Twitter connects me (@ericgarland) with thousands of people discussing future trends, competitive intelligence, strategy and all kinds of fun things. What is so seductive – to this writer, anyhow – is that these people have taken to informing and entertaining each other instead of waiting for media from official sources.

If this seems trivial even for a second, consider the amount of useless data you received from official sources in the area of war, politics and business. People in mass numbers are wretchedly disappointed with the business press, with coverage of geopolitics, of the media in general. Rather than slink away, people are simply connecting to one another, forming their own digital tribes as they see fit, and informing themselves in what is probably a much more Socratically-pure intake of knowledge.

This kind of conversation has never been possible before Twitter. Even if Twitter itself ceases to exists, the horse has left the barn; people are taking one more step in understanding the power of connection.

If you then think that this is narcissism or dilapidated email, you’ve missed the point

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


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