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Posts Tagged ‘strategy’

Peak conglomeration?

Friday, 14 January 2011 09:30 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

One of the most important trends in corporate governance and business strategy in the last decade has been the feverish drive toward conglomeration. Banking, telecom, heavy industry, energy, pharmaceuticals, and funeral homes have been on the path of combining into ever large corporate entities. This has a broad reaching impact for everybody – workers, other companies, governments, and the investors who provide public capital.

There’s a fascinating piece from CNBC, which features some insight from Reformed Broker’s Josh Brown. It seems that for years, the business media has accepted that giantness is always a great strategic move. Here, there is some real discussion (!) about whether it makes sense to have a single corporate culture attempting to compete intelligently in a broad variety of businesses.

Brown’s point is cogent – sometimes conglomeration a good idea (Berkshire Hathaway) and sometimes…it’s just a whole lot of people with the same letterhead.

You are not crazy, and forecasting works

Wednesday, 26 August 2009 09:10 Written by Eric Garland 4 Comments

jugeotteIf you watch the TeeVee Box, the world and its institutions seem inherently irrational. It’s a world of crazy risk, cataclysmic downfalls, nonsensical solutions from people who ought to know better.

One of America’s high priests, Ben Bernanke, has just been taken on for a second term at the head of the powerful and enigmatic Federal Reserve bank. See my post from yesterday to understand why this surprised me. For a moment I had the all-too-common though:

In a world this nuts, why even forecast? I mean, why study housing prices, water tables, healthcare expenditures, and all the rest if the world comes down to the actions of a select, semi-rational few.

Then I thought it over. The last year has unfolded in a strictly rational way. The trick to understanding the future (and the method I teach) is to analyze a combination of three things:

  • structural trends
  • actor decisions
  • wildcards

Understand what’s happening, the options available to actors in a system, and the crazy stuff that can happen when you’re not looking.

Look at the economics of 2008 – 2009 through that lens and it all makes sense.

This is the subject of today’s podcast, so KEEP THINKING.

Forecasting and rational thinking Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

The culture of big rolls on…

Monday, 26 January 2009 09:45 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

As Pfizer prepares to buy Wyeth for $68 billion.

The details state that Pfizer helped finance the deal by raising $22 billion dollars in debt from “a consortium of banks.” Who had $22 billion laying around in this credit crisis? Just curious.

The financial crisis and what it means for leaders

Tuesday, 14 October 2008 19:15 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

With everything that has happened in recent days, we here at Competitive Futures are really examining what we do as trend analysts.

Trends are the result of decisions human beings have made. Track them all you want – it’s the leaders that count.

What kind of leader are you? Are you thinking about the future?

Yes, it’s a marketing message for our firm, but more than ever we realize that the answer to those questions impact us all.

What happens after the meltdown

Tuesday, 16 September 2008 17:14 Written by admin 0 Comments

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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