You are not crazy, and forecasting works
If you watch the TeeVee Box, the world and its institutions seem inherently irrational. It’s a world of crazy risk, cataclysmic downfalls, nonsensical solutions from people who ought to know better.
One of America’s high priests, Ben Bernanke, has just been taken on for a second term at the head of the powerful and enigmatic Federal Reserve bank. See my post from yesterday to understand why this surprised me. For a moment I had the all-too-common though:
In a world this nuts, why even forecast? I mean, why study housing prices, water tables, healthcare expenditures, and all the rest if the world comes down to the actions of a select, semi-rational few.
Then I thought it over. The last year has unfolded in a strictly rational way. The trick to understanding the future (and the method I teach) is to analyze a combination of three things:
- structural trends
- actor decisions
- wildcards
Understand what’s happening, the options available to actors in a system, and the crazy stuff that can happen when you’re not looking.
Look at the economics of 2008 – 2009 through that lens and it all makes sense.
This is the subject of today’s podcast, so KEEP THINKING.
The culture of big rolls on…
As Pfizer prepares to buy Wyeth for $68 billion.
The details state that Pfizer helped finance the deal by raising $22 billion dollars in debt from “a consortium of banks.” Who had $22 billion laying around in this credit crisis? Just curious.
The financial crisis and what it means for leaders
With everything that has happened in recent days, we here at Competitive Futures are really examining what we do as trend analysts.
Trends are the result of decisions human beings have made. Track them all you want – it’s the leaders that count.
What kind of leader are you? Are you thinking about the future?
Yes, it’s a marketing message for our firm, but more than ever we realize that the answer to those questions impact us all.
What happens after the meltdown
About Eric Garland
Eric is one of the world's pre-eminent thoughtleaders in forecasting and strategy. He helps leaders of business and government make critical decisions about their futures.New project: Manufacturing 2020!
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