Doug Stephens is the Retail Prophet, one of the few futurists for the retail sector. In this episode of the Competitive Futures Podcast, Doug tells us about why there’s a major strategic shift coming in retail and what it all means for marketing, product management, distribution, city planning and more.
When people think of “radical futures” the words “nanotechnology” or “genomics” are usually not too far behind. Throw in a few comments about “transhumanism” and “the end of biology” and you’ve got a classic futurist-y look at the next twenty years. One concept people rarely think about when they hear of radical future transformation:
Retail.
That’s why Doug Stephens from Canada’s Retail Prophet is such a refreshing speaker on the future of business. He is to our knowledge the only speaker who talks about the upcoming changes in the world and what they mean for the business of retail. It’s counterintuitive when you think about how important that sector is to our economy and how little we discuss its future.
Below are clips from one of Doug’s recent speaking engagements. Look for more interviews from him when Competitive Futures re-launches its Podcast with a new iPhone/iPad application in a couple of weeks.
With a h/t to Calculated Risk, hotel occupancy has reached record low levels:
In terms of the occupancy rate, 2009 was the worst year since the Great Depression (close to 55%). And last week was no exception with Smith Travel Research reporting the occupancy rate fell to 33.8 percent – the lowest weekly occupancy rate on record.
At CompFutures, we are waiting to see what the retail numbers are for Q4 2009, specifically to see if this pushes retail and commercial real estate over the edge.
I was just surfing SlideShare for some competitive intelligence – always a great source of left-of-center information, unusual sources, and stuff that never gets published. I cam across a provocatively titled slideshow about how digital imaging killed the corner camera shop. Even though the market exploded, the model shifted to one where there was no margin for customer service of any sort.
Food for thought for this Monday.
I have received many emails from colleagues this week about their impending layoff. Many of these people have been with their organizations for ten and twenty years. They are some of the most talented people I know, and have decades left of valuable work to offer the world.
So where are they going?
It may not feel like this at first, but they are being set free. Not free, as in free-range chickens, where all your food and shelter is provided, but free as in “released into the wild.” Available to form new organizations, able to contribute in unheard of ways, electronically, in person, part-time, for custom projects, for ONE-NIGHT-ONLY! The opportunities are endless. The insecurity as well.
You know what else will be free? Office space. Retail space. Homes in the suburbs.
A quick statistic: The United States has more than 20 square feet of retail space per person, according to Shopping Centers Today.
Italy has 1.1 square feet per person, and still manages to drink fantastic wine and provide charming shoes to all of its female citizens. They make Ferraris and biotech and electronics and they somehow only require 5% of the retail space that Americans have built.
The retail space, like the suburban homes they were supposed to serve, will come crashing down in price over the next two years. Space, particularly ugly space, will be virtually free.
2011: You want to own your own basketball court? Fine. Thinking of starting a university? It’ll probably be feasible. Want to open a roller rink/flea market, but never could find the space? No problem.
These times will be scary for certain, but maybe even exhilerating as well. People and space are going to be freed. What will you build out of it?