We don’t believe in conspiracies, nor do we believe the future is impossible to see. Rather, the information is there, hiding, waiting to be researched and analyzed.
Many executives fall into a cognitive trap – that if something is important enough to affect their business, then the business media will call it to their attention. Our experience says that this is not so. You need to do your own research and reach your own conclusions.
Take this graphic showing how long it would take to sell both existing and “shadow” real estate inventory. “Shadow inventory” is that which sits on a balance sheet, but yet is never offered to the market, and there’s tons of it out there now that neighborhoods and commercial developments are succumbing to foreclosure. This graphic says that we’ve got nearly ten YEARS worth of inventory, assuming we keep things the way they are for a decade.
How many of your colleagues know about this? Do you know how this fact might affect the much vaunted “recovery?” If it’s not your industry, would you come across this information by accident?
Likely, you need customized research. If you’re interested, we can help.
as tried, to no avail during the 1980s by now-depressed executives. As a result, these jaded, weary bureaucratic warriors will attempt to shoot down anything that even smacks of an earlier attempt at greatness. Their tool of choice will be to compare the current strategic situation to the decade of neon and shoulder pads.
*Note of caution!* Some classic strategic blunders will always apply, and should be taken mostly at face value. Pay attention when you hear, “Don’t invade Afghanistan. We got the Soviets to do it in the 1980s, and it’s really nasty.” This one is true! They learned it in the 1980s, 1950s, 1920s, 1890s, 1120s, and so forth back to Alexander the Great. It’s a good bet.
Now, let’s explore this technique in an economic situation rapidly unfolding before us. Many of my regular readers may be aware of the somewhat significant difficulties in the banking industry due to developments in the housing sector. (Ahem.) Everything – how do you say? – caught on fire and burned to the ground after people around the world decided that their three-bedroom ranch with a 1950s kitchen was worth EIGHTEEN MILLION DOLLARS, and then the banks developed ingenious financial instruments around this unusual state of affairs.