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Posts Tagged ‘psychology’

Expert technology assessment of vintage innovations

Saturday, 22 January 2011 11:04 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

One of the key elements of writing scenarios is accepting that you are describing people of the future who will most likely not share your assumptions about the world. Their society will look and act differently. Technology will solve new problems and cause new complications. They won’t be, in many ways, like you and me. This is scary, because it makes us feel obsolete and more likely to avoid the real implications of where the world is heading. Nobody likes a bracing shot of mortality with their futures work – but that’s what we get.

Don’t believe that your world will one day look foreign? Watch this group of Quebec schoolkids try to somehow fathom the bizarre world that you and I must have inhabited.

What, after all, could this strange, backward group of people been thinking to be playing with this absurdly inferior technology?

Baby no cry (or, the disassociative fugue of the Crisis)

Thursday, 25 June 2009 16:30 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

Back a few decades ago, when in graduate school, my son, then maybe two years old, was playing outside in a common area. He fell and hit his head pretty hard. A Japanese women, wife of a grad student, saw it and said, managing as best she could with limited English: “Baby hit head, if cry, no problem. Baby hit head, no cry. Problem.”

I would say, about the current reactions to the economic scene, that the baby is not crying.

time_confusionI read this comment this past week over at Gregor MacDonald’s fantastically insightful blog and it really stuck with me. So much news keeps coming at us, so many  headlines informing us of additional $60 billion obligations to our future earnings and yet people seem to be in a daze, tuning out additional rotten information.

An example: I was just in Europe working with clients on economic forecasts and scenarios, typical futurist stuff. A couple of times I was asked a most unusual question. “So, do you think the crisis is really still going on over in America?”

I asked, “Did you see that General Motors, one of the most venerated companies in the history of American capitalism went bankrupt last week?” The quick reply, “Sure.”

Me: “Well, that’s gonna sting a little.”

Them: “So, you think that’s bad.”

Me: “The bankruptcy of GM and the impending meltdown of California and stuff? Yes, that’s pretty gnarly.”

Them: “Oh…I guess…I guess that’s true.” *silence*

People, at what point did the destruction of America’s top car manufacturer become easily forgettable? Are we just so overstimulated by bad news that we’ve stopped thinking about the consequences?

Five years ago, if you had suggested a scenario that by 2010 unemployment would be at 11% and General Motors would be nationalized, your colleagues would immediately seize you and force feed you antidepressants and romantic comedies until your hyper-gloominess passed. Today, it barely provokes a response.

Are we in a fog or what? And what will it take to get us thinking again?


Science magazine: the present is visceral, the future is abstract – so we prefer the present

Saturday, 31 January 2009 10:01 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

One of the great missing pieces in futures research is an adequate understanding of the human psychology of foresight. We have been talking to leaders about a rapidly moving future for around 70 years, and yet most people would agree that we haven’t quite arrived at a “foresight culture.”

The Long Now Foundation just pointed out a new article in the venerable journal Science which is finally seeking to understand The Psychology of Transcending the Here and Now.

People directly experience only themselves here and now but often consider, evaluate, and plan situations that are removed in time or space, that pertain to others’ experiences, and that are hypothetical rather than real. People thus transcend the present and mentally traverse temporal distance, spatial distance, social distance, and hypotheticality. We argue that this is made possible by the human capacity for abstract processing of information. We review research showing that there is considerable similarity in the way people mentally traverse different distances, that the process of abstraction underlies traversing different distances, and that this process guides the way people predict, evaluate, and plan near and distant situations.

From my own experience, the future is certainly abstract to people – something they consider – whereas the present is visceral – something they feel in their guts.

If I tell you the 2007 Case-Schiller price index indicates a once-in-a-lifetime bubble for housing, one that will soon pop, you file this under “interesting ideas to consider.”

When I show you a picture of the 4000 sqaure foot house that you are inexplicably allowed to purchase under lax banking regulations and unverified income, you file this under, “very awesome things.” The abstraction of the banking system is no match for the visceral awesomeness of being able to purchase a suburban castle with six bathrooms.

I think most people in a global economy will not take the time to consider the roots of confirmation bias is such depth. But I sincerely hope that every leader of business and government will.

“Nobody could see it coming,” schadenfreude edition

Friday, 14 November 2008 14:08 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

One of the most outrageous things I heard about this current financial crisis was that “Nobody could see it coming.” Early warning was written all over this systemic collapse – and people actively made fun of this view.

Watch this video of economist Peter Schiff and the ridicule he must endure for accurately predicting the systemic weaknesses in the economy.

Think about this kind of dynamic the next time you need to spread news of a systemic disruption in your organization.

A Critical Moment for Next Generation Leadership

Friday, 10 October 2008 14:28 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

A phrase continues to run through my head: “The future called. It’s waiting to see what you do before it happens.”

It’s an interesting moment to be involved with the long-term future – a moment when most people are too traumatized to see past the next few days. My next book is about the psychology of the future – not just how to study the future, but why most leaders do not. A concept I am exploring is the two levels of fear in organizational thinking.

The first level of fear occurs when the status quo is threatened. This might be exemplified by the events of mid- to late September, when the first banks started to buckle due to the subprime mortgage fiasco. Then, people started to worry about their stocks, their retirements, their home values – they were worried, in general, that if we changed too far from the current system, it would do them harm. People become more likely to rally around current institutions, defend them from fundamental change, because there is potential, undetermined harm on the other side of that shift.

If things get worse, we encounter a deeper, more interesting second level of fear. This occurs when people sense their institutions themselves are the problem, and there is much greater probability of harm from doing nothing. Now, people are much more likely to seek new structures, new intellectual frameworks, new rules. This is when leaders can take action and improve – or dramatically worsen – a situation.

This brings me to a lovely moment this past Tuesday, where I had the pleasure of speaking before the International Association of Corporate and Professional Recruiters. These are the people who seek out the leaders of tomorrow’s organizations, often interviewing and selecting potential CEO candidates for their clients. Their international meeting was in Manhattan, on 48th and Park Ave. Next to Wachovia, JP Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, etc. The mood is grim, shocked, calm, worried, and in many cases, angry.

This emotionally and intellectually charged atmosphere led to one of my favorite speaking events of the year. It was a great opportunity to speak before people who were interested in hearing about the challenges of the future, AND about what they could do to pick leaders with the appropriate mentality for those challenges. I could tell these executive recruiters, not to mention most of New York City, was open and willing to see how our institutions could realign with the future, to create a more just, prosperous humane world.

All this, followed up by world-class restaurants and guitar shops. Despite the crisis, I STILL love New York.

Think about the leaders we need for these challenges. Then, be those leaders. Or at least think like them.

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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