One of the world’s top energy analysts, Gregor MacDonald is firmly calling out the boondoggle of biofuels, saying that young plant growth will never have enough energy content to replace oil in a meaningful way. Now, that doesn’t mean he sees no brighter future for alternatives:

After spending nearly ten years myself studying energy, coal, uranium, natural gas, solar, wind, government policy, and of course the master commodity, oil, I have pretty much come up with a working model for how I think the next decade or two will play out. As for biofuels, they will play no significant role in the world’s energy mix. And while all the other fossil fuels show some possibilities for enhanced use–and here I am thinking mainly of natural gas and coal–I remain committed to oil as the miracle, concentrated energy source that can be increasingly leveraged to build out a future energy architecture. That future energy architecture in my view will have at its core solar energy. Which is kind of a nice story, poetically speaking, because oil itself is ancient solar energy.

Many people right now, most notably James Howard Kunstler, see our economy woes as a reaction to the end of cheap oil. Any growth scenarios in macroeconomics must be seen in the light of the future of energy supply. And if you don’t like growth, then start talking about subsistence and sustainability.

Either way, you’re dealing with coal, natural gas, and oil on the way to solar.