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Posts Tagged ‘music’

The future is watching the Cosby Show and Cheers

Thursday, 13 January 2011 10:57 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Back in the ancient days of, say, 1996 – back when we were erecting large stone monoliths in honor of the various tree gods in exchange for their mercy during the winter months – there was this strange superstition that one should pay authors and musicians and filmmakers for individual copies of their work. You got to “own” these copies and you were able to listen or read or watch anytime you wanted. Some people even got rich from this business of selling copies of artistic work.

Bizarre, isn’t it?

Now we have a host of digital music services that offer unlimited music for fractions of a penny per listen. But even stranger, we now even have things like Grooveshark which work like the original, gangster, Wild West, lawless version of filesharing circa 2000 – only prettier and easier to use. I’m listening to it now. It is positively baffling how well it works and how free it is.

We have entered into an age like no other, in which a human being born today will essentially have unlimited entertainment from the artistic output of a number of centuries available anywhere he/she goes, and for free.

Future generations will be able to spend a year watching situation comedies from the year 1985 – in real time – commercials and all – available for free in some far off Burbank computer server. Next year, do you want to do nothing but listen to Dixieland jazz and Glenn Miller-era swing? No reason not to. When you have finished, you can read every book published in Scotland in 1820 while listening to Creedence Clearwater Revival. Don’t forget to tune in for our free streaming marathon of Greek and Albanian soap operas! Followed by 2000 straight hours of the Manga Channel, a specially curated webzone for people who love extreme tentacle-centered Japanimation.

And not a dollar will change hands.

Let the implications of that development sink in. It means a lot for how future generations will act.

Pat Metheny’s Orchestrion: Robots playing music

Sunday, 16 May 2010 11:46 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Often, I think the 21st century may look increasingly like the 19th. Sure, there’s the dominance of coal in the developing world. There’s unprecedented globalization. European disintegration. Resurgence of local agriculture. All this, plus world health is considerably better. Not a bad future, necessarily.

In the musical world, there is a recent event that hearkens back to the 19th century days of the player piano, but will 21st century elegance and complexity. Pat Metheny, one of the top guitarists and composers in the world, has experimented for years with MIDI (Musical Instrument Digital Interface), the technology that allows musicians to connect directly to synthesizers, samplers, and recording devices. This year, his vision has gone steampunk – the Orchestrion project, a centrally-coordinated digital orchestra that triggers actual instruments instead of their synthesized counterparts.

Watch the video – this is an incredibly beautiful sounding vision by a mad professor bent on calling back a more elegant age.

Beats talking about housing and finance for a moment.

Music – fix your business model!

Saturday, 09 January 2010 12:28 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

This presentation from Alexander Osterwalder is a terrific, brief analysis of what is broken in the business model of music, and more importantly, how it can be fixed.

Note the systemic tear down of the different parts of the industry, looking at the value chain in great detail.

This analysis can and should be used by any company in any industry.

The Music Industry – what's broken (excerpt of a keynote)
View more documents from Alexander Osterwalder.

Music’s digital decade

Monday, 04 January 2010 19:37 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Music Digital DecadeCourtesy of Forrester Research, a great graphic describing the innovation of the music industry, from 25 billion euros in 2000 down to 10 billion euros today.

Competitive Futures has been using the music industry as the poster child for strategic disruption since the beginning of the decade. I remember discussions with music executives around the turn of the millennium. Mostly, they were caught in the “moral” indignation of “kids” “stealing” music when they should be paying $18 (closer to $30 in Europe!) for static music media.

My favorite discussion was with an industry exec who attempted to sell me on the notion that “Compared with going to the movies, which is $8, a CD is a great investment because you can play it again and again. It probably should be $100 or something.” Nice. Try.

The conclusion: just because you don’t want to face reality doesn’t make it have less impact.

Business models: Compensation, not control

Thursday, 12 February 2009 12:46 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Gerd Leonhard is one of the hardest working guys in the world right now, criss-crossing the globe and trying to figure out the future of making money off music, books, movies, and other content. (Guys like me really appreciate that!)

He has noticed that the “sue the customer” trick didn’t work (ahem) and that a new business model for content is badly needed.

Here, his mantra is “compensation, not control.” Watch the whole thing:

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This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


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