Posts Tagged ‘mindsets’

Paul Denlinger: China’s Strategic Future

Wednesday, 11 August 2010 17:40 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

In this episode of the Competitive Futures Podcast, we interview Paul Denlinger of China Vortex, an author, investor, and executive advisor who specializes in U.S. – China commercial activity. He’s a rare bird indeed, completely fluent in Mandarin and English and totally familiar with the executive leadership mentality of both countries. In this episode, he gives the audience some forecasts about China that you (unfortunately) just won’t be hearing in other media:

  • The crash of 2008 shook China’s faith in the U.S. and sent their strategy away from engagement to the creation of a massive Chinese middle class they hope to drive the world economy
  • China will ramp their use of coal significantly on the way to dominating the world market for renewable energy
  • The markets for many raw materials are being cornered by China today and may leave other countries in the lurch if they don’t act soon

All of this, plus invaluable insight about how the Chinese mentality on the future differs considerably from that in the West.

We hope you enjoy listening to this interview as much as we did making it.

Short-term and long-term business planning – what timeframe?

Thursday, 21 January 2010 21:47 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

We spied a very interesting interesting graph from Rick Telberg, who may possibly be the only competitive intelligence professional I know focused on strategic trends for tax, finance and accounting professionals. His company surveyed a very interesting question – what do you consider short-term planning?

The answer, after a billion articles about futurism, The Art of the Long View, scenario planning, technology foresight, and all the rest, is still a bit shocking.

Half of people interviewed actually considered short-term to be within three months. One out of five thought of their short-term as one week.

What could they possibly think of as super long-term? A year? Eighteen months?

How can you discuss peak oil, Boomer retirement, housing trends, the rise of Asia Pacific?

Bear this in mind as you try to discuss strategic trends.

Next Generation Leadership: Jingoism Vs. Kool-Aid-ism

Friday, 14 November 2008 11:42 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

At Competitive Futures, we’re thinking long and hard these days about what the next generation of leadership will need to look like. 2009 will feature a variety of new events, services, and dialogues around what we need to do to thrive in the face of all of these crises.

Just found a great way to describe the leadership mindsets of the different generations via Jessica Margolis, a futures-oriented thinker on this subject, and wanted to post her insights in their entirety. Go check out the whole thing.

As we transition to a kind of leadership that is equal to our challenges, we will need to enter into many such deep philosophical discussions.

KOOL-AID-ISM

Baby Boomers had Jingoism, and Generation X has Kool-Aid-ism.  For the Boomers, Viet Nam was the question:  Would you go?  Would you NOT go?  If you didn’t go, would you protest? Leave the country?  What is a hero?  Where are your national duties?  You may have relatives who served or even died during World War II; how can you oppose your government’s call to duty?

Generation X has had a similar pivotal issue:  Will you go to work in corporation?  Will you refuse?  If you don’t go, will you start your own business?  How should you support yourself; what role should your livelihood play in your life? What about your family? Where are your obligations?  How should you effect change?

“Drinking the Corporate Kool-Aid” is an expression often used to mean the degree to which an employee buys into the goals and objectives as stated by the executives in the firm they work.

The degree to which (US-raised) Generation Xers bought into to the framework of unfettered capitalism is as much a litmus test as the degree to which Boomers bought into the framework of unfettered nationalism. It even has the same polarizing issues: If you’re going to do it, do it right! (Be much more aggressive in Viet Nam; make a LOT of money in the corporate world.)  If you object to the powerful treating you badly, then you’d better not do the same thing yourself  (“Make love not war”; “First, do no evil”).

The first global crisis?

Saturday, 11 October 2008 12:03 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

It’s great to hear from Thomas P.M. Barnett, author of the Pentagon’s New Map, and one of the top thinkers on foresight in the world. This recent article posits that the current global credit crisis may be the first time we get to truly see the interconnected nature of globalization in action.

As always, the question will be: What new rules and rule-setting venues emerge? Because eventually they must. The Asian Flu didn’t do it, nor have any of the other more regional shocks since, but eventually you need some entities to emerge to monitor and manage these cross-border financial flows. This gap has been clear for many years, but as long as informal collusion among the largest economies has worked–just well enough–no one’s been willing to surrender the power. Maybe this perturbation, then, is really the one.

I agree. The terrorist attacks and wars have really been managed through nation-states, so the fundamental calculus of governance has not really changed. It’s not like the Chinese, French and Canadian militaries started Facebook pages to share data on al Qaeda – we mostly went back to our old system of armies and allies. (And perhaps this is why the results are so mediocre.)

This crisis is different. We’re all in this together, but there’s no government to look over these international transactions. And maybe we don’t want one. Or can’t have one. But maybe it would be useful. It’s complex. In any event, new institutions will be required, hopefully ones more adapted to current realities than old ideologies.

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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