God bless YouTube, this is very cool.
In case you want a taste of the logic behind major change, this is JFK reading the Declaration of Independence, in its entirety.
Words written by fallible human beings, but powerful, and remembered.
This post comes from the fabulous Caribou Coffee on East-West Highway in Silver Spring, Maryland. It’s a calm, gray day here across from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration building as people mill dreamily about, trying desperately to adjust to the time change as the morning’s caffeine sets in.
Tomorrow we will have a national election. My district’s voting will be right here, at NOAA. My neighbors and I will gather, likely to sit in line for what we will perceive to be an absurd amount of time. Out of pure faith, we assume that these votes will be accurately counted, and that the policy direction of this nation will be changed.
Does any of this matter? Aren’t we the prisoners of demographic and economic shifts? Don’t the entrenched and powerful cancel out any change we might try to engender? Can a leader really get anything done in just a few years?
Yes, it matters deeply. Leadership is still critically important in these complex, confusing times – perhaps
moreso. I think that people in Western countries have been in stable political and economic systems for so long, that we are sometimes skeptical about the ability to change for good or for bad. That change is made possible – or impossible – by individual leaders, their mindsets, their skills, and the actions they take. The world is a different place because of them.
I am currently reading about Caesar Augustus, a man who said on his deathbed, “I found Rome made of clay; I give it to you made of marble.” His actions, in a few short decades, likely led to the establishment of Europe as a coherent cultural and political entity for two millennia after his death.
OK, so he’s probably credited as the most effective leader ever – how can we match up to historical standards on a daily basis?
By using the same process of long-term vision, tempered by modern management techniques. How do you do that?
We’re working on it. In fact, today, a group of like-minded managerial philosophers are meeting today for a project we call the “Next Generation Leadership Institute.” Over the next year, we’ll be exploring these questions in great detail. The moment is too important to let pass.
More to come.
At a conference in Charlotte, North Carolina, working with executives on future trends and their relationship
to risk management. It’s an exciting time to be discussing global change and potential scenarios, especially in the wake of the financial debacle where real things are changing at a breakneck pace.
One woman put a fine point on our predicament. “The worst part of this is that our leaders are being revealed as the emperors who have no clothes. We require a certain degree of strength and trustworthiness in our authority figures. But a lot of these guys are looking ignorant, fraudulent, or worse.”
I think the answer here is not anarchy. Our economic system is far too complex to ever revert to operating our countries and industries without some degree of hierarchical leadership.
Trust in leadership is already shaken by the terrifying sudden meltdown of the world credit market. Thinking in terms of scenarios, if we have one or two or crises to follow up the financial catastrophe, how much less power will our institutions carry? Why listen to the news? Why pay attention to cabinet ministers? What does the boss know? He might be out of a job tomorrow too.
The fact remains, we will need leadership to guide institutions through the many challenges on the horizon. Reputation will be an important part of maintaining influence.
We live in a rapidly changing world, yet it often seems that our leaders are more terrified than ever inĀ
admitting mistakes. Think of the standard Washington political non-denial-denial, the expert blame deflection, the passive-voice “mistakes were made” begrudging semi-admission of responsibility.
Imagine how rarely we hear the words, “I got it wrong. I thought the world was one way, but it turned out to be more complex than that. Now I know better.” It’s as if authority figures are afraid that anybody who admits error will never be trusted again.
Yesterday, I expressed shock that Greenspan did not see the broader picture of the United States financial system, new kinds of risk, and the complex interaction with world markets. For somebody with so many advisors and access to information at any price, I am still a bit surprised.
Still, I don’t want to let the moment pass without simply expressing gratitude to a man big enough to admit his assumptions did not match the moment. More than ever I believe that we are on the verge of a new paradigm in leadership, in management, in economics, and in society. Paradigm has been overused and badly used, but I think it’s finally appropriate. If there is change this significant on the horizon, many people will make mistakes.
For our institutions to survive and thrive we must possess the ability to admit mistakes, take responsibility, seek new perspectives, and move forward. I read people who are surprised that Greenspan was willing to “take abuse” and “take part of the blame” in his testimony to Congress. Yes, it’s that rare. But far more important is the example of a man of the highest position in society willing to admit that his assumptions were invalid.
I remain critical, but I am impressed and grateful.
With everything that has happened in recent days, we here at Competitive Futures are really examining what we do as trend analysts.
Trends are the result of decisions human beings have made. Track them all you want – it’s the leaders that count.
What kind of leader are you? Are you thinking about the future?
Yes, it’s a marketing message for our firm, but more than ever we realize that the answer to those questions impact us all.
This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.
For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co