August Jackson: social network analysis for intelligence (part four of four)
The thrilling conclusion, in which we talk about social network analysis from a real-life perspective and why it represents a powerful holistic world view.
August Jackson: social network analysis for intelligence (part three of four)
August Jackson shares how studying the link between people, companies, and technologies makes social network analysis a very powerful strategic tool.
August Jackson: social media analysis for intelligence (part two of four)
August keeps on a roll, telling you how to run a network analysis yourself, how to pick good sources (not necessarily LinkedIn!) and how this type of thinking represents a more holistic way to see your markets.
August Jackson: social network analysis for intelligence – (part one of four)
Sure, your teenager may hear the word “social networks” and think of a great way to coordinate a social life. August Jackson, Competitive Intelligence and Strategy Professional, Tech Pundit and Social Software Evangelist working for Verizon, knows that social networks are the key to advanced competitive intelligence analysis and extremely relevant, accurate business forecasts.
In part one of this four part interview, August gives us the nearly fifty year background of this analytical discipline, how we can better understand competitors, partners and customers alike, and why you should NOT start with software but make your first attempts at this work just with your brains and pen and paper.
Social media, authority and intelligence
We finally have video and audio of last week’s Intelligence Collaborative event at which I discussed the impact of social media on what passes for authoritative information, and thus on decision making.
The Future Intelligence Methodology
People often ask us what kinds of information they should be collecting if they want to see what’s coming next. This short video explains what kinds of intelligence you should be gathering and why if you want to maintain profitability and growth in the years to come.
The revolution of algorithmic authority
Clay Shirky recently began exploring a significantly important idea in Intelligence 2.0, that of algorithmic authority, a new form of trust that befits the complex informational environment of the 21st century. For those of us who assemble large amounts of data for decision makers, authority is critical, and it is under major stress due to the Internet. Until recently, you could help leaders make the most informed decisions by assembling the most authoritative sources, interpret the implications of that data, and go forth understanding several potential courses of action. Today, we must also add a new dimension – evaluating the validity of the information as the barriers to entry fall in the world of printing and distribution. Shirky’s theory helps us in this regard:
Algorithmic authority is the decision to regard as authoritative an unmanaged process of extracting value from diverse, untrustworthy sources, without any human standing beside the result saying “Trust this because you trust me.” This model of authority differs from personal or institutional authority, and has, I think, three critical characteristics.
First, it takes in material from multiple sources, which sources themselves are not universally vetted for their trustworthiness, and it combines those sources in a way that doesn’t rely on any human manager to sign off on the results before they are published. This is how Google’s PageRank algorithm works, it’s how Twitscoop’s zeitgeist measurement works, it’s how Wikipedia’s post hoc peer review works. At this point, its just an information tool.
Second, it produces good results, and as a consequence people come to trust it. At this point, it’s become a valuable information tool, but not yet anything more.
The third characteristic is when people become aware not just of their own trust but of the trust of others: “I use Wikipedia all the time, and other members of my group do as well.” Once everyone in the group has this realization, checking Wikipedia is tantamount to answering the kinds of questions Wikipedia purports to answer, for that group. This is the transition to algorithmic authority.
New Ways of Knowing 2.0: Social Media and the Future of Intelligence
We’re so excited about this upcoming SCIP meeting, I need to repost the entire meeting description:
It’s January 28th in Washington DC. You should come and be part of this discussion!
New Ways of Knowing 2.0: Social Media and the Future of Intelligence and Decision-Making
Intelligence is at a watershed moment. After decades of developing a profession to collect information and provide early warning, we find ourselves in a broad-reaching financial catastrophe that was unknown or ignored by decision makers. Despite a collection and analysis of economic information, most businesses walked unknowingly into a ruined banking sector, retail distribution on the brink of bankruptcy, housing grotesquely overvalued, American automobiles at the point of extinction – all while most leaders continued to view change as incremental.
This unprecedented current economic crisis seems to represent a failure of intelligence. After all, if intelligence cannot motivate leaders to action, then as professionals we must ask – what good is it? Many analyst voices in the desert warned about the risks in real estate, derivate markets and reliance on leverage, but it’s not clear that this led to action. Are we in our current mess because the leaders in business and government simply didn’t listen? If so, how can intelligence professionals deliver analysis that drives appropriate action?
The next generation of intelligence might solve the inherent weaknesses of Intelligence 1.0 by relying on a broad range of information, focusing on relationships over hierarchy and replacing official dogma with a continuous dialogue. Technology will be a major driver in this evolution: Web 2.0 and social media tools are moving into the mainstream– not just in the consumer space but also in business. 2008 has seen the year of “Enterprise 2.0.” Web 2.0 has gone to work to enable collaboration, smash silos and change business processes. Intelligence analysts have new tools and methods at their disposal for primary research, secondary discovery, collaborative analysis and communicating actionable insight.
“New Ways of Knowing 2.0″ will be an interactive educational event in which we will examine the potential of social media to improve the intelligent organization of the future. Participants can expect to teach as much as they learn and see connections among diverse concepts, tools, intelligence practices and business processes. Our panelists will include:
- Suki Fuller, social media maven and CI consultant
- Eric Garland, strategic forecaster, intelligence thought leader, author of Future Inc: How Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from What’s NEXT, and principal of Competitive Futures, Inc.
- August Jackson, market and competitor intelligence analyst and Enterprise 2.0 evangelist at Verizon Business.
You will come away with this program with immediate and actionable advice about how you can incorporate Enterprise 2.0 tools into your intelligence processes to improve your ability to adapt to our ever-changing world. Discussions and highlights from the program will be posted to the new SCIP DC chapter blog at http://scipdc.wordpress.com.
Executives must re-establish their strategic radar
Tim Powell, a colleague and expert in competitive intelligence, sees the financial crisis as a complete failure of scientific management. We use numbers all the time because measurement is better than superstition. Numbers aren’t perfect. but if we don’t restore confidence in these techniques, the whole economy will suffer.
When people—and I include institutions here, they’re run by people—can’t trust the numbers, they can’t trust the capital markets. When they can’t trust the markets, they will not invest in those markets. If they don’t invest in the markets, the markets will freeze up. When the markets freeze, business can’t operate and will itself freeze—and that is exactly what is happening.
Without honest, quantifiable management techniques, our economy will look like the Soviet block – based on raw power, cult-of-personality warlord leadership.
Metrics can get onerous, but without them, we’re in the Stone Age.
About Eric Garland
Eric is one of the world's pre-eminent thoughtleaders in forecasting and strategy. He helps leaders of business and government make critical decisions about their futures.Connect with us
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