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Posts Tagged ‘General Motors’

General Motors’ new concept car for dense urbanization

Friday, 07 January 2011 10:23 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

General Motors EN-VThough General Motors has had a rough few years, what with bankruptcy, you couldn’t be blamed if you thought that the company was just trying to get through the short term. It may surprise you, then, to hear that the company was actually one of the world’s most reliable sponsors of foresight, constantly scanning science, tech, demographic and ecological trends to inform new products and practices.

The press release for the Electric Networked Vehicle, pictured here at the CES show in Las Vegas, sounds like it was penned directly by a futurist:

Shanghai – By 2030, urban areas will be home to more than 60 percent of the world’s 8 billion people.  This will put tremendous pressure on a public infrastructure that is already struggling to meet the growing demand for transportation and basic services.

General Motors and its strategic partner, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. Group (SAIC), share a common vision for addressing the need for personal mobility through a radical change in personal urban transportation.  They are exploring several solutions for tomorrow’s drivers.  Among the most promising is a new vehicle form called EN-V.

I look at it and think it taps two megatrends – urbanization and aging populations. You can see it equally comfortable to zip around downtown Ho Chi Min City or the adult retirement/entertainment community.

And cripes – LOOK AT IT. This is futurist bait!

Assuming a bright future – pensions drag down General Motors

Thursday, 08 April 2010 09:38 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

One of our more accurate predictions at the end of 2008 was the soon-to-be-discovered catastrophe of unfunded pensions. As 2010 develops, we see that many of the current hotspots in the ill-defined “financial crisis” are tied to this one issue of having overvalued the future at the expense of the present.

California is sitting on around $500 billion (!) in liability. The state of Illinois is short $78 billion for it’s pensions. Now, here comes The New General Motors, still losing billions after a taxpayer bailout. The Government Accountability Office has recently released a report about how pensions will likely drag the ailing manufacturer down starting in 2012 or so. (h/t to Megan McArdle at The Atlantic for quality analysis here – also, the comments section is a stitch)

What happens in 2012? The bulk of the Boomers start cashing in those defined-benefit pension plans, heading to the doctor’s more often, and generally turning 65 at the rate of 7000 per day. Aren’t forecasts useful? This is why we call it a megatrend – it will impact car companies, state governments, universities, national governments, baseball teams, travel agencies – everybody.

Nothing is more dangerous than a business decision based entirely on, “sunny, bright scenarios of fantastic success at 8% returns for all of our investors, forever!”

Baby no cry (or, the disassociative fugue of the Crisis)

Thursday, 25 June 2009 16:30 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

Back a few decades ago, when in graduate school, my son, then maybe two years old, was playing outside in a common area. He fell and hit his head pretty hard. A Japanese women, wife of a grad student, saw it and said, managing as best she could with limited English: “Baby hit head, if cry, no problem. Baby hit head, no cry. Problem.”

I would say, about the current reactions to the economic scene, that the baby is not crying.

time_confusionI read this comment this past week over at Gregor MacDonald’s fantastically insightful blog and it really stuck with me. So much news keeps coming at us, so many  headlines informing us of additional $60 billion obligations to our future earnings and yet people seem to be in a daze, tuning out additional rotten information.

An example: I was just in Europe working with clients on economic forecasts and scenarios, typical futurist stuff. A couple of times I was asked a most unusual question. “So, do you think the crisis is really still going on over in America?”

I asked, “Did you see that General Motors, one of the most venerated companies in the history of American capitalism went bankrupt last week?” The quick reply, “Sure.”

Me: “Well, that’s gonna sting a little.”

Them: “So, you think that’s bad.”

Me: “The bankruptcy of GM and the impending meltdown of California and stuff? Yes, that’s pretty gnarly.”

Them: “Oh…I guess…I guess that’s true.” *silence*

People, at what point did the destruction of America’s top car manufacturer become easily forgettable? Are we just so overstimulated by bad news that we’ve stopped thinking about the consequences?

Five years ago, if you had suggested a scenario that by 2010 unemployment would be at 11% and General Motors would be nationalized, your colleagues would immediately seize you and force feed you antidepressants and romantic comedies until your hyper-gloominess passed. Today, it barely provokes a response.

Are we in a fog or what? And what will it take to get us thinking again?


About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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