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Posts Tagged ‘financial meltdown’

“Nobody could see it coming,” schadenfreude edition

Friday, 14 November 2008 14:08 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

One of the most outrageous things I heard about this current financial crisis was that “Nobody could see it coming.” Early warning was written all over this systemic collapse – and people actively made fun of this view.

Watch this video of economist Peter Schiff and the ridicule he must endure for accurately predicting the systemic weaknesses in the economy.

Think about this kind of dynamic the next time you need to spread news of a systemic disruption in your organization.

Why Greenspan’s admission of error matters

Friday, 24 October 2008 14:19 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

We live in a rapidly changing world, yet it often seems that our leaders are more terrified than ever inĀ admitting mistakes. Think of the standard Washington political non-denial-denial, the expert blame deflection, the passive-voice “mistakes were made” begrudging semi-admission of responsibility.

Imagine how rarely we hear the words, “I got it wrong. I thought the world was one way, but it turned out to be more complex than that. Now I know better.” It’s as if authority figures are afraid that anybody who admits error will never be trusted again.

Yesterday, I expressed shock that Greenspan did not see the broader picture of the United States financial system, new kinds of risk, and the complex interaction with world markets. For somebody with so many advisors and access to information at any price, I am still a bit surprised.

Still, I don’t want to let the moment pass without simply expressing gratitude to a man big enough to admit his assumptions did not match the moment. More than ever I believe that we are on the verge of a new paradigm in leadership, in management, in economics, and in society. Paradigm has been overused and badly used, but I think it’s finally appropriate. If there is change this significant on the horizon, many people will make mistakes.

For our institutions to survive and thrive we must possess the ability to admit mistakes, take responsibility, seek new perspectives, and move forward. I read people who are surprised that Greenspan was willing to “take abuse” and “take part of the blame” in his testimony to Congress. Yes, it’s that rare. But far more important is the example of a man of the highest position in society willing to admit that his assumptions were invalid.

I remain critical, but I am impressed and grateful.

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This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


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