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Posts Tagged ‘financial crisis’

Common sense, key to clairvoyance

Thursday, 23 October 2008 16:21 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Alan Greenspan is apparently shocked that the financial crisis was so broad reaching.

Greenspan also blamed the problems on heavy demand for securities backed by subprime mortgages by investors who did not worry that the boom in home prices might come to a crashing halt.

A quick question: did nobody in the banking industry stop to ask whether doubled home prices might cause a problem for future homebuyers?

Did they really think that Generation X and Y would start their lives with massive student loans and a $500,000 starter home?

Nobody even pondered whether doubling home prices would have a impact on other systems. All it would have taken is to talk with a young person and ask them if they can imagine purchasing such a home.

Not everyone is so blind to the broader implications:

“It wasn’t deregulation that allowed this crisis,” Rep. Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican said. “It was the mish-mash of regulations and regulators, each with too narrow a view of increasingly integrated national and global markets.”

Broad thinking is the answer. Short-term, parochial thinking locked in the current business model leads to missing even the biggest trends.

Executives must re-establish their strategic radar

Wednesday, 22 October 2008 17:01 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Tim Powell, a colleague and expert in competitive intelligence, sees the financial crisis as a complete failure of scientific management. We use numbers all the time because measurement is better than superstition. Numbers aren’t perfect. but if we don’t restore confidence in these techniques, the whole economy will suffer.

When people—and I include institutions here, they’re run by people—can’t trust the numbers, they can’t trust the capital markets.  When they can’t trust the markets, they will not invest in those markets.  If they don’t invest in the markets, the markets will freeze up.  When the markets freeze, business can’t operate and will itself freeze—and that is exactly what is happening.

Without honest, quantifiable management techniques, our economy will look like the Soviet block – based on raw power, cult-of-personality warlord leadership.

Metrics can get onerous, but without them, we’re in the Stone Age.

The financial crisis and what it means for leaders

Tuesday, 14 October 2008 19:15 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

With everything that has happened in recent days, we here at Competitive Futures are really examining what we do as trend analysts.

Trends are the result of decisions human beings have made. Track them all you want – it’s the leaders that count.

What kind of leader are you? Are you thinking about the future?

Yes, it’s a marketing message for our firm, but more than ever we realize that the answer to those questions impact us all.

A Critical Moment for Next Generation Leadership

Friday, 10 October 2008 14:28 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

A phrase continues to run through my head: “The future called. It’s waiting to see what you do before it happens.”

It’s an interesting moment to be involved with the long-term future – a moment when most people are too traumatized to see past the next few days. My next book is about the psychology of the future – not just how to study the future, but why most leaders do not. A concept I am exploring is the two levels of fear in organizational thinking.

The first level of fear occurs when the status quo is threatened. This might be exemplified by the events of mid- to late September, when the first banks started to buckle due to the subprime mortgage fiasco. Then, people started to worry about their stocks, their retirements, their home values – they were worried, in general, that if we changed too far from the current system, it would do them harm. People become more likely to rally around current institutions, defend them from fundamental change, because there is potential, undetermined harm on the other side of that shift.

If things get worse, we encounter a deeper, more interesting second level of fear. This occurs when people sense their institutions themselves are the problem, and there is much greater probability of harm from doing nothing. Now, people are much more likely to seek new structures, new intellectual frameworks, new rules. This is when leaders can take action and improve – or dramatically worsen – a situation.

This brings me to a lovely moment this past Tuesday, where I had the pleasure of speaking before the International Association of Corporate and Professional Recruiters. These are the people who seek out the leaders of tomorrow’s organizations, often interviewing and selecting potential CEO candidates for their clients. Their international meeting was in Manhattan, on 48th and Park Ave. Next to Wachovia, JP Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, etc. The mood is grim, shocked, calm, worried, and in many cases, angry.

This emotionally and intellectually charged atmosphere led to one of my favorite speaking events of the year. It was a great opportunity to speak before people who were interested in hearing about the challenges of the future, AND about what they could do to pick leaders with the appropriate mentality for those challenges. I could tell these executive recruiters, not to mention most of New York City, was open and willing to see how our institutions could realign with the future, to create a more just, prosperous humane world.

All this, followed up by world-class restaurants and guitar shops. Despite the crisis, I STILL love New York.

Think about the leaders we need for these challenges. Then, be those leaders. Or at least think like them.

Bank failure, “early warning,” and the leadership of the future

Thursday, 18 September 2008 17:47 Written by admin 0 Comments

This financial meltdown was foreseeable. Still, it seems that the concept of “early warning” is really called into question. In the intelligence business, we pride ourselves on scanning the horizon, nominally to look out for bad things and potential good things on behalf of leaders.

If early warning and business intelligence is truly taken seriously, how could this have happened?

Surely, somebody among the myriad of financial giants and government agencies has a system of intelligence, futures analysis, early warning, whatever you want to call it. Why was so little action taken? Everybody involved in management must take note of the post-mortem of this situation and the lessons we can learn – lessons we must learn.

Often, we are called upon to deliver bad news to leaders, that a real threat is on the horizon that does not match their current strategy. There is a powerful psychological force that makes people reject bad news, or to accept it very slowly. I wonder if recent events won’t make leaders more psychologically flexible, more prepared to accept early warning.

The 21st Century requires leaders with these skills. When major institutions are lead without these skills, the consequences are evident to us all.

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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