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Posts Tagged ‘finance’

Youth unemployment, the root of disruption

Tuesday, 14 December 2010 17:45 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

Our educational and economic institutions of the future are more likely to be disrupted in the future by the millions of young people around the world unable to find meaningful employment in a timely fashion. After all, people are much less likely to see institutions as infallible when they weren’t very helpful.

José Manuel Salazar, Executive Director of the International Labor Organization reports that youth unemployment around the world is between 2.5 and 3.0 times higher than those of older, more experienced adults. He gives a variety of reasons, from lack of financial resources to move for work, to the fact that employers in times of strife can choose from more experienced talent.

This trend meets with another trend as we go forward, the increase of the cost of education. In the United States, four-year universities have increased in price between three and four times in real, inflation-adjusted dollars, within 30 years. That means young people coming out with more debt than ever, needing real employment in their fields making good money as soon as possible to begin to offload the heavy yoke of that obligation.

Those young people need work more than ever and aren’t finding it. Why then will they continue to believe that $50,000 per year universities are necessarily the way to success? How many of them are going to be faced with modern indentured servitude, unable to walk away from those debts no matter what the outcome?

The system is frontloading too much risk onto the youth of the industrialized world, and that risk is not resulting in increased returns as it might in other types of investment. Who will blame them if they can imagine a system of learning and work that does not involve a multi-billion dollar educational-financial cartel?

Bernanke’s angry about AIG, not ready to look into the future

Wednesday, 04 March 2009 14:11 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

I don’t think the government will show us the future of the economy, and maybe that’s just fine:

Mr. Bernanke defended the latest government injections into AIG — putting the total commitment at more than $170 billion — and said the actions would help stabilize the firm and carry out spinoffs and sales of noncore units.

“We don’t know for sure what the future will bring. We don’t know how the financial system will evolve or how the economy will evolve. But I do think that this does give us the best chance both to achieve financial stability and as well to ultimately recover most or all of the investments that the public has made in AIG,” he said.

It is not clear to me how nation-states will be able to justify allowing banks to merge to the size of AIG in the future. Companies of that size are so big, the government appears powerless to stop them, and yet that same government ends up responsible for keeping them solvent in the face of disastrous business decisions:

“AIG exploited a huge gap in the regulatory system. There was no oversight of the financial-products division. This was a hedge fund, basically, that was attached to a large and stable insurance company, made huge numbers of irresponsible bets, took huge losses. There was no regulatory oversight because there was a gap in the system.”

This isn’t a moralistic forecast, but a practical one – what smart country would allow this situation to be repeated in the next 50 years? What investor would risk his capital in the same manner? We won’t have to wait for some government to outlaw this behavior; capitalists will take the lead by being more skeptical about investments.

More importantly: Bernanke claims he has no idea what the future will bring. That’s OK – it’s our job anyhow.

The future is NOT in more bank lending

Friday, 27 February 2009 10:29 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

I studiously avoid day-to-day politics into the discussion of strategic trends, but in this moment of critical government decision it is unavoidable.

Listening to President Obama’s speech before a joint session of Congress, I tried to imagine the impact of the trillions in deficit spending on the global economy. America’s recapitalization of banks, according to the President, is to stabilize the economic system but also to get banks lending again.

The concern is that if we do not re-start lending in this country, our recovery will be choked off before it even begins.

You see, the flow of credit is the lifeblood of our economy. The ability to get a loan is how you finance the purchase of everything from a home to a car to a college education; how stores stock their shelves, farms buy equipment, and businesses make payroll.

But credit has stopped flowing the way it should. Too many bad loans from the housing crisis have made their way onto the books of too many banks. With so much debt and so little confidence, these banks are now fearful of lending out any more money to households, to businesses, or to each other. When there is no lending, families can’t afford to buy homes or cars. So businesses are forced to make layoffs. Our economy suffers even more, and credit dries up even further.

That is why this administration is moving swiftly and aggressively to break this destructive cycle, restore confidence, and re-start lending.

I have placed several graphics on this blog about the trillions of dollars in debt that have been created through this culture of debt in the past twenty years. This crisis is due largely to that culture. Surely, rolling lines of credit are necessary to running most businesses. There are fluctuations in cash flow that require a certain percentage of your annual revenue to be offered to you in credit to keep things functioning.

debt-adusted-real-gdp

That’s not what has been going on. We’ve financed trillions of dollars of GDP through rampant debt. Note the difference between real GDP and economic activity financed through leverage:

This culture has destroyed the Anglo-American banking system. Many corporate mergers have been made possible only through billions in available debt. Education prices shot well ahead of wages due to availability of private student loans. Housing is crushing the middle class now that the bubble has burst – a bubble that would have been impossible without a reckless culture of debt.

If we are to recover, the culture must change. According to Mish, who should be one of your favorite economic bloggers:

With all due respect Mr. President, you and Congress want to force banks to lend when banks (by not lending) are acting responsibly for the first time in a decade. Mr, President can you please tell us who banks are supposed to lend to? Do we need any more Home Depots? Pizza Huts? Strip malls? Nail salons? Auto dealerships? What Mr. President? What? And why should banks be lending when unemployment is rising and lending risks right along with it?

Note that he mentions retail, also at an all-time high bubble, and which also will come down.

I’m in a mood to make short-term predictions about management: The future is in growing your business from organic growth, recapitalizing cash from operations. It will not be from exuberant bank lending policies, or this malaise will last an extra five years.

In praise of accounting- decoding the market collapse

Wednesday, 15 October 2008 13:19 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

The Washington Post has a worthy piece about the deeper roots of the current financial calamity. Dating back to the 1990s, it seems that the uses of derivatives created an investment zone without accountability.

Unlike the commodity futures regulated by Born’s agency, many newer derivatives weren’t traded on an exchange, constituting what some traders call the “dark markets.” There were now millions of such private contracts, involving many of Wall Street’s top firms. But there was no clearinghouse holding collateral to settle a deal gone bad, no transparent records of who was trading what.

With the establishment of these derivatives, there were places that financial transactions could disappear into and quietly slip out of, changing form, donning disguises, padding away quietly into the night. It was the Mos Eisley cantina of the financial world.

Shortly following the establishments of the derivatives markets, the world was entranced by the disastrous excesses of Enron, Worldcom, and Global Crossing. There, accounting was found ripped to tatters, covered in filth, abused in every way. The result was the establishment of the cantankerous jalopy known as Sarbanes-Oxley, a set of accounting standards so complex they would give a Jesuit an aneurysm. In addition to millions of hours of accounting time required, CEOs now had to sign tax returns in multiple places. Life was different.

Yet the new market for derivatives remained, and despite the hullabaloo in the calls for transparency, the financial world had well enough space to hide gains and losses when necessary.

We don’t just need intangible things like leadership, foresight, ethics, and a sense of social justice to get our economic system back on track. We need ACCOUNTANTS and FLASH LIGHTS. The real issue here is that we have ample trap doors for trillions of dollars to fall into. Sarbanes-Oxley was clearly not enough.

We will need accountants, endless phalanxes of methodical, numbers-minded paladins who are willing to prevent fraud in the financial industry. We don’t need more laws. We need more people enforcing them.

The “dark markets” seem like the source of our woes if they are able to remove trillions of dollars from accountability.

I’d say you can plan on a strong future for forensic accounting.

The future of business: more business, less finance

Monday, 13 October 2008 08:34 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Fareed Zakaria is taking the long view with our current financial crisis, which naturally impresses me. I am quite glad to read his take on the potential upside of the current financial crisis. His view is that we will finally correct some of our fatally bad habits and return to a more disciplined approach to management.

“The financial industry itself is likely to shrink, and that’s not a bad thing, either. It has ballooned dramatically in size. Curry points out that “30 percent of S&P 500 profits last year were earned by financial firms, and U.S. consumers were spending $800 billion more than they earned every year.”

The notion of 30% of profits coming from people who essentially charge fees to borrow money should have been worrisome. Then again, the idea of running your economy on consumers who were borrowing short of a TRILLION dollars per year should have sent us screaming into the hills.

As a result, most of our top math Ph.D.s were being pulled into nonproductive financial engineering instead of biotech research and fuel technology.

I love this point! It seemed for years that simply “being the best” meant a one-way ticket to Wall Street, not a genuine love or talent for finance. It was no wonder why – that’s where the best salaries and bonuses were, no matter what you did. Yes indeed, those brains would be a real help on all the rest of our challenges!

Capital expenditures went into retail construction instead of critical infrastructure.”

This would explain why my hometown of Rutland, Vermont shrank in population over the past decade (from 20,000 to 17,000,) while it received more than one million square feet of new retail space. The average age of the place is 57, most of our manufacturing and farming jobs are gone, but they put in a dozen new giant retailers. Only fundamental problems with the financial sector could have incentivized this.

I agree with Fareed Zakaria – we’re going to have the opportunity to kick some very bad habits! It sounds like instead of shuffling money through the financial sector, we’ll be more motivated to invest in bridges, solar panels, wind farms, factories, roads and things that will actually improve our future.

A silver lining indeed.

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This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


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