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Posts Tagged ‘Facebook’

Almost two million Facebook users will die this year

Wednesday, 19 January 2011 13:03 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

This sounds like a story lede so inflammatory and sensational that it wouldn’t even make it onto the local TV news. Yet, statistically, its just a fact of life that many, many people who use Facebook will die this year.

Nothing sinister is at play. Remember, as investors pile millions into the company with the big blue F, they back up the soundness of their reasoning by telling themselves that there are nearly 600 million active users of Facebook. That’s a pretty significant population – twice the size of the United States. And when you talk populations that big, you can make predictions based on public health statistics, which is what Fast Company has just done:

It’s a question of percentages. Sure, there is mortality rate of just 0.100% for people between the ages of 20 and 24, but when you start talking about massive sample sizes, that’s going to be a number that sounds shocking – 22, 640.

Then again, let’s think this through – how many people who use doorknobs will die this year? How many people who leave this mortal coil in 2011 will have consumed PEANUT BUTTER at least once in the past 12 months. IT COULD BE THOUSANDS. MILLIONS!

The real point is that Facebook is reaching a scale at which it become a public utility. Skype – which has around 27 million users at any one moment, users that pay nothing – released a profuse apology for letting their largely free service go down for a few hours. Now, as someone who remembers a time when rural areas like where I grew up only got one TV station in dubious quality, I find it fascinating that CEOs now apologize when they cease giving away free intra-planetary telecommunications for 24 hours. The world sure has changed. Social media is not consider a frivolous entertainment,  it is more like water, sewer and electricity – people expect it to just be there.

Facebook is getting more publicity that the average religious deity because they are hip and relevant. Then again, think of the hipness and brand awareness of your typical utility company. Does anyone write feverish, excited prose about the new business model of the water company in your city? Apple CEO Steve Jobs has just taken another medical leave of absence, and markets are holding their breath. When was the last time that happened for the CEO of an electricity distribution company? Who can name a SINGLE natural gas provider?

Utilities tend not to stay on the front page forever.

China, Google, and two notions freedom

Thursday, 08 July 2010 16:55 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Paul Denlinger, a very astute observer of U.S.-China business relations has a fascinating piece up at China Vortex discussing two very different notions of freedom of information that are colliding soon.

One view, ostensibly “American,” is being espoused by Google, Facebook, and their respective CEOs. In short, this view is the early Internet mantra of “Information Wants to Be Free.” Opposing them is the Chinese government, which obviously believes that government should play a role deciding which information goes where in a society.

Read Denlinger’s analysis and decide whether the issue of “information sovereignty” and “individual rights” are as clear as you might think. It just goes to show the incredible role culture needs to play in all of our analyses of the market.

Facebook will be worse than an abandoned shopping mall

Tuesday, 25 May 2010 10:09 Written by Eric Garland 4 Comments

Facebook will be worse than an abandoned shopping mall, and Twitter is doomed – or so sayeth my favorite comic, Patton Oswalt. (While it may seem to strange to cite standup comics for business insight, I submit that there’s nothing more comical than most of mainstream business television right now.) As such, I thought that his announcement that he is joining Twitter contained some cutting analysis on the future of social networks and the stability of their business models in an era of ultra-easy product substitution:

So, I’m joining Twitter this Saturday.

And, eventually, whatever replaces it.

I was on Friendster. It collapsed. I jumped on MySpace, and now it’s pretty much an abandoned shopping mall. I still get about 30 Friend Requests and 15 messages in my Inbox every day, but they’re all mailing list bullshit for bands I’ll never listen to, or porno-bots promoting some young Eurasian hottie. Even the comments are clearly all bot-generated. An abandoned mall still had trash, heating and cleaning services drop by, I guess.

I’ll still update my calendar and galleries here, but that’ll be about it.

Don’t feel bad, MySpace. Facebook is also, clearly, on the way out. Constant spam ads, weird privacy wormholes — yuck. Any social networking site, like a great punk band or TV show, has entropy and collapse built into its biography.

Remember how fun Friendster was for those three or four months?

His scenarios, however, are my favorite:

And Twitter will collapse, too. What will replace it? Here are my 3 predictions:

BlipBlap: Basically Twitter, but only 17 characters allowed, and no vowels. Xclnt!

Wh1ff: The first-ever “scent site” — you update your status from an “odor board” of 170 different scents. “(Snnnnnnfff) Patton had chili for lunch and he’s somewhere humid.”

DanzaQuip: Every single status update on this site is first sent to Tony Danza’s personal e-mail. He then decides which ones to post, and is the only one who can respond or comment. (*This site will replace the U.S. Post Office in 2027)

Really, is it any stranger than a prediction that 400 million people would voluntarily post embarrassing photos online in an ultra-complex social web of their coworkers and former elementary school classmates?

Thoughts from the howling edge of privacy

Tuesday, 17 February 2009 18:08 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Many people on the Interwebs are becoming exercised about the new terms of service of Facebook:

You hereby grant Facebook an irrevocable, perpetual, non-exclusive, transferable, fully paid, worldwide license (with the right to sublicense) to (a) use, copy, publish, stream, store, retain, publicly perform or display, transmit, scan, reformat, modify, edit, frame, translate, excerpt, adapt, create derivative works and distribute (through multiple tiers), any User Content you (i) Post on or in connection with the Facebook Service or the promotion thereof subject only to your privacy settings or (ii) enable a user to Post, including by offering a Share Link on your website and (b) to use your name, likeness and image for any purpose, including commercial or advertising, each of (a) and (b) on or in connection with the Facebook Service or the promotion thereof.

On one hand, this does sound a bit like King Henry VIII on The Tudors, granting himself powers over all matters royal, legal, theological and temporal and starting a new church all at once. This blog, for example, gets posted to my personal Facebook account: can Facebook now make derivative products of ALL futurists on Facebook, print a compendium of foresight blogs? (Who knows, maybe it would be cool?) But it sounds like a lot of power.

On the other hand, I saw one young person comment, “You probably should expect anything you put on the Internet to be available for free, forever.” This is probably the more rational approach.

As Gerd Leonhard is fond of saying, “Compensation, not control.”


Is Facebook the eighth-largest country on Earth?

Thursday, 08 January 2009 13:38 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Mark Zuckerberg makes that comparison in a recent post on his blog. At 150,000,000 inhabitants, Facebook would be a country with more population than Japan, Nigeria, and Russia.

I’m not sure about this comparison, but the implication for politics are very real indeed. We have typically defined the nation-state as a collective that shares ethnicity, borders, language, and a common set of myths and historical beliefs.

As jobs shift back and forth across continents, old industries die, ideas flow effortlessly, and governments seem a bit clue-less about what to do next, it seems that self-organizing systems will affect how humans design their politics.

How exactly will this change the world? I’m still working on that one…

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This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


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