I spoke recently with an American diplomat who outlined the larger importance of having the European currency succeed. Her concern is for the geopolitical balance that will be affected if the eurozone is not stabilized.
“Think of the Euro currency as the first baby in a marriage. Sure, there’s a difference between marriage and dating, but a baby is a real, concrete, serious output from that union, a tangible expression of your interaction. Think of the countries of Europe as participants in a somewhat new marriage. Right now, if the euro turns out to be a failure, if it is no longer considered as a reserve currency, it will be significant embarrassment on the parents – sort of like if their first kid ends up in prison.
Before, the European nations were just dating, nothing serious. They allowed passport-free travel between countries; they liberalized trade policies and labor pools; they didn’t go to war for the first time in a while. This currency has been their first major project as a group. Even their military assistance in Afghanistan isn’t truly an expression of Europe as a force – it is a NATO action. The currency, on the other hand, is designed to show Europe as a major economic counterbalance to China, Japan, and the United States. If that currency fails on the first try, essentially the rest of the world may – rightfully – see Europe as a collection of diverse states that are not able to coordinate even simple policies.
The world may be left with a more bipolar world between China and the U.S., with Europe left as nothing more than a tourist destination full of aging populations and delicious cheeses.”
Time to put your scenario-planning hats on, especially if Europe figures prominently as a market or as a supplier for your organization.
