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Posts Tagged ‘Euro’

The stakes of the Euro’s survival

Tuesday, 18 May 2010 09:09 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

I spoke recently with an American diplomat who outlined the larger importance of having the European currency succeed. Her concern is for the geopolitical balance that will be affected if the eurozone is not stabilized.

“Think of the Euro currency as the first baby in a marriage. Sure, there’s a difference between marriage and dating, but a baby is a real, concrete, serious output from that union, a tangible expression of your interaction. Think of the countries of Europe as participants in a somewhat new marriage. Right now, if the euro turns out to be a failure, if it is no longer considered as a reserve currency, it will be significant embarrassment on the parents – sort of like if their first kid ends up in prison.

Before, the European nations were just dating, nothing serious. They allowed passport-free travel between countries; they liberalized trade policies and labor pools; they didn’t go to war for the first time in a while. This currency has been their first major project as a group. Even their military assistance in Afghanistan isn’t truly an expression of Europe as a force – it is a NATO action. The currency, on the other hand, is designed to show Europe as a major economic counterbalance to China, Japan, and the United States. If that currency fails on the first try, essentially the rest of the world may – rightfully – see Europe as a collection of diverse states that are not able to coordinate even simple policies.

The world may be left with a more bipolar world between China and the U.S., with Europe left as nothing more than a tourist destination full of aging populations and delicious cheeses.”

Time to put your scenario-planning hats on, especially if Europe figures prominently as a market or as a supplier for your organization.

Local currencies in distressed towns

Tuesday, 16 February 2010 08:03 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Between the Greeks staying in the European monetary union, or Detroiters keeping their dry cleaners and doggie-daycares afloat, there is a considerable amount of talk about the role of currency. The crux of the European issue is that the Portuguese and Greek economies are so different from the French and German ones, it is difficult to keep one currency with the same rules and assumptions in play. The fringe actors are no longer able to keep up the facade required for membership in the club.

We are seeing a microcosm of this in local towns in America, and the issue comes down to the ability to maintain a central currency. We note with interest an uptick in stories about local currencies not seen since the banking meltdown of 2008 and 2009.

Last year, two Detroit tavern owners were sitting at the bar, sampling their beverages and bemoaning the local economy — no one in the city had cash, and when they did, they spent it in the suburbs. Then the pair hit on a solution: Print their own money.

It is, after all, perfectly legal for anyone to issue currency, as long as it doesn’t look too much like a U.S. dollar. Thus was born the Detroit cheer, a local scrip accepted by a handful of city businesses, including a pizzeria, an electrician and a doggy day care center.

But why would people go to such trouble? Money is money, right?

When the Treasury prints billions to bail out banks and automakers, people look for alternatives. These folks may look nutty now, goes the quip, but wait till the dollar goes the way of the Argentine peso. Then you’ll be exchanging a wheelbarrow of cash for a bay buck, local currency boosters say.

What could this mean in terms of business strategies? One of the most likely implications would be a return to local distributors, those able to deal best with the local market and even local currencies. Compare this to the recent trend of market consolidation in a variety of industries. It just doesn’t match.

First Greece and Portugal, but they are on the outskirts of civilization. First Detroit and Western North Carolina, but those places aren’t prime time.

Next…California? Spain? Iceland? New York State?

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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