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Posts Tagged ‘Energy’

Energy shortage will constrain future economic growth

Saturday, 15 January 2011 08:24 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Though many sources have been making this point, it is notable that the American Institute of Biological Sciences is taking a macroecological approach to the future of human economic activity. In a purely scientific fashion, they look at the relationship between energy consumption and economics, and conclude – not surprisingly – that you can’t have one without the other.

If, then, we are running into stalling production and skyrocketing demand – lots of places simply won’t grow economically, they conclude.

Makes sense. Now, if your government is projecting massive deficits into the future, and in the future economic growth will be constrained, what does that mean to the debt?

I always thought that debt which will never be paid back is either inflation or bankruptcy.

Russia is the new energy power player while America barbecues

Wednesday, 04 August 2010 16:46 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

While the media was arguing about whether Ben Bernanke knows what he’s talking about, while America was discussing the meaning of “double dip” recession, or hockey stick recession, or V-neck, or crew cut, or whatever, while Sarah Palin’s daughter got back with Levi or didn’t because he’s maybe got another girl pregnant or maybe she set it up to sell books or not -  something real and important was happening. As usual, Gregor MacDonald was on top of it:

“Russia has now surpassed Saudi Arabia to become the number one oil producer in the world. This is not an event that happened last month, either. The leap forward emerged as far back as 18 months ago, in October of 2008.”

It is usually a source of alarm when the Russians start taking the upper hand in things, but you would never know it by listening to American media, which is still in a tizzy over whether any major secrets were spilled by the Wikileaks documents showing us that Afghanistan is a tricky place to govern.

Incidentally, I hear that Wikileaks may come out next week with a chilling set of leak documents showing that fire is hot, puppies are cute, and that the trend for the sun setting in the west may continue.

Meanwhile, back in the rest of the evolving world:

It’s clear that Saudi Arabia has been a very different kind of oil producer than Russia, in the past ten years. I would encourage readers to think about, in particular, the period starting in late 2005 through late 2007 when against a backdrop of steadily increasing prices Saudi Arabia production fell by nearly a million barrels per day.

Obviously a major power shift will be going on as a result of this development. The priorities of the Middle East could change rapidly if the sheiks perceive a permanent contraction, and you can read history if you want to see what the Russians tend to do with significant power over their neighbors.

Low energy consumption is the new hotness

Wednesday, 07 April 2010 09:26 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Two events in Europe point to a significant industrial trend: Using lots of energy simply isn’t hip.

First, an experimental plane just launched from Switzerland without any fuel on board – the Solar Impulse.

Second, Daimler (having lost weight and colored its hair and bought a new wardrobe following its breakup with Chrysler) and Renault-Nissan signed an alliance in Brussels to make small, energy-efficient engines destined for a variety of innovative, small vehicles destined for city living.

Meanwhile, General Motors failed to find a buyer for Hummer, the symbol of energy-guzzling American military triumphalism.

None of this is “green” business – it’s purely in line with the emerging reality of energy scarcity.

Interview with Pam Atherton on A Closer Look radio

Monday, 15 February 2010 15:39 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Last week I had the enormous pleasure to speak with Pam Atherton on A Closer Look radio. She’s a bona fide radio professional with a profound understanding of society, the Pam Athertonmedia, information, wisdom, and how to ask great questions. This hour-long interview on the future of energy and local communities could have gone on much longer, and felt like in went by in a few moments.

We delve into the implications of peak oil, why local gardens are the new hotness, and how organizations deal with information about the future. Definitely worth a listen.

Gregor MacDonald: It’s a coal world, we just live in it

Saturday, 12 December 2009 11:42 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Not a happy scenario, but one you must consider:

“The November issue of Gregor.us Monthly, Coal World, has now been published and it carries an unhappy message. I am forecasting that the world will not successfully transition from oil to a broad basket of renewable energy and power sources over the next twenty years. Instead, I strongly favor an outcome in which oil, the construction fuel for the global buildout of new power generation, becomes so expensive that the world becomes energy poor, and turns instead back to coal. In case you hadn’t noticed, the process of energy impoverishment has already begun.”

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This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


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