• Home
  • About
    • About Competitive Futures
    • About Eric Garland
    • News
  • Case studies
    • Competitive strategy
    • Economic development
    • Opportunity assessment
  • Services
    • Research
      • Technology foresight
      • Future customer profiles
      • Competitor positioning
      • Investment due diligence
    • Training
      • Future Intelligence course
      • Real Forecasting
  • Media
    • Best practice reports
    • Books by Eric Garland
    • Articles by Eric Garland
    • Podcast episodes
    • STEEP Reports
    • Presentations
  • Blog
  • Contact

Posts Tagged ‘Economic Development’

Africa may be self-sufficient for food by 2025

Friday, 03 December 2010 11:18 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

The interesting thing about studying the future, is that trends are usually developing while we’re busy looking at other things. This is a very positive trend coming from Africa:

Currently a net food importer, Africa has the potential to become a food exporter through a combination of modern technology, improved infrastructure and better technical education, according to the study.

Calestous Juma, professor of the practice of international development at the Harvard Kennedy School in the United States, led the research, which was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

“Seventy percent of employment in Africa comes from agriculture, so you can argue that in Africa agriculture and economy are synonymous,” he said. “In effect, you cannot modernize the economy in Africa without starting with agriculture.”

Future of economic development: Countries cannot possibly be poor

Tuesday, 07 September 2010 13:27 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Competitive Futures is currently partnering with a wonderful organization that deserves your support, Haiti Futur, a group that is working tirelessly on the revitalization of Haiti from a foresight point-of-view. Since the country has essentially been leveled, there is a magnificent opportunity to build a new, future-focused infrastructure using the broadest vision and most modern techniques for sustainability. Its chief mission is revitalizing the intellectual capital of the country through education, a great place to start when you think of building a foundation for a brighter future.

Talking with the group’s director, Josette Bruffaerts-Thomas, some fascinating points about economic development, and its future, arise. For example, Mme Bruffaerts dismantles the phrase “poor country.” To hear her tell it, economic development is not about increasing riches, but reducing suffering. This makes sense as soon as she brings out examples – Nigeria is a hundred times richer than Denmark or the Netherlands in any material sense. There are more natural riches of all kinds, but most everyone would say that between education, illness, and joblessness, Nigerians suffer more on average than the Dutch. But this is not to say that Nigeria is poor – just that its people are suffering, and that policies can be undertaken to improve things. To say that a country is poor is to subconsciously condemn it to one definition of economic wealth.

When you think about it, this is a completely different frame for economic development, which is usually focused on bringing in industries or creating tax base. In this frame, the central focus of all activity is improving social and intellectual capital, which may indeed be aided by the invitation of foreign direct investment, the establishment of new industries, or the building of new infrastructure such as bridges and hospitals. Yet the true measurement remains the well-being of the people.

When you consider how the numerically-based monetary system may soon be collapsing under its too-numerous contradictions, this frame of reference for economic development may be useful to us all.

In praise of slow economic development: St Louis versus Baltimore

Wednesday, 24 February 2010 11:48 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

It’s blue skies over the Midwest as I travel to work with clients here in St Louis. Driving into the orderly, clean, rapidly-revitalizing downtown district, I cannot help but make a comparison in how different this city’s economic development has been compared with Baltimore.

Both cities had thriving manufacturing sectors early in 20th Century. Both cities hollowed out in the 1970s, expanding in endlessly-sprawling suburbs in all directions. Both cities left the infrastructure of their downtowns to rot. And both began projects of revitalization in the 1990s, hoping to heal the scars of gross economic inequity and re-center their civic life.

Baltimore launched a massive redevelopment centering around national big-box retail and major attractions. It is bankrupt.

St Louis redeveloped slowly, around local retailers, local investors, small projects. Block by block, it has gotten a little better each year, improving real estate, increasing access to services, getting a bit cleaner, a bit prettier. Nothing too drastic.

The value in slow growth seems to be showing itself…slowly.

Cities: the real driver of future economic prosperity

Monday, 24 August 2009 20:36 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

For the first time ever man is becoming a majority urban creature. It’s hard to overestimate this change. Since the Fertile Crescent in 10,000 B.C., cities were only a fraction of human population, even if they were the centers of technology and culture. Humans throughout history have been mostly villagers, mountain people, hunter/gatherers.

In 1800 only 3% of humans lived in cities. Most people never saw a city, and the vast majority didn’t trust city folk when they came to town. They earned nasty terms like “city slicker” and “vilain,” which is just old French for “city slicker.”

By 1900, in the midst of the Industrial Revolution, only 6% resided in urban areas. Plenty of economic opportunity was to be had in the fields and in the mines of the countryside. Manufacturing and intellectual work still represented a minority of the jobs available.

Now in 2009, more than half of humanity lives in cities. Upward of 88% of all economic activity happens in cities – and this is increasing. Job opportunities in the countryside are disappearing as the knowledge economy makes physical capital less valuable and makes innovation the main driver of competitiveness.

Not all cities are created equal. Amsterdam, San Francisco, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Paris are monuments to culture, economic vitality, and learning, blessed by sufficient infrastructure and social stability. The urban future also means Lagos, Nigeria, Mexico D.F., Cairo, Egypt, Manila, Philippines, Calcutta, India, and more – cities of five, ten and twenty million inhabitants with critical sanitation problems, insufficient water, crumbling roads, and few jobs for the refugees from even deeper rural poverty.

For this reason Competitive Futures took a closer look at the future of what is likely to be our most common environment, the urban area. Enjoy.

Competitive Futures STEEP Report: The Urban Future

View more documents from Eric Garland.

Slides from “Winning the Future” at the New York State Economic Development Council

Saturday, 23 May 2009 08:21 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

It has been a glorious week here on the East Coast of the United States, a welcome reprieve from the grey, damp and interminably depressing winter and spring we endured. I was afforded the wonderful opportunity to drive north, toward my homeland, into the lakes and farmlands of upstate New York, and all for the best of reasons. This past Wednesday I had the chance to speak before the annual meeting of the New York State Economic Development Council on major trends facing states like New York as they plan for their coming decades.

Then again, there are no other states like New York; they are historically, industrially, and culturally unlike any other province on Earth. Present at the birth of the United States, they include one of the world’s most important cities, formed the backbone of the twentieth-century industrial economy, gave rise to several world-class companies (IBM, Kodak, Corning), and most importantly, share a border with Vermont, the single best chunk of land in the world. (With apologies…kinda)

Their future is surely in flux. The financial debacle that has rocked the world happened within their borders and is dragging down their tax revenues as we speak. They seem to accept that the Gilded Age of financial bonus excess may dribble on for a few years, but that a new age of austerity is likely upon us. Their physical infrastructure is significant, but also aging and costly. Despite their world-class university system, young people are seeking opportunities in other lands.

Despite the hyperventilation of those who follow stock indexes as the ultimate measure of global health and happiness, my presentation focused on considerably more positive upside for the Empire State. One of my biggest themes of the year has been SMALL, SMART, and LOCAL. The centrally-controlled, centrally-screwed-up financial system is obscuring more opportunity than it is enabling. Communities are coming together, bartering, printing local currencies, starting new, low-cost social services, educating each other, and creating prosperity.

This is where New York is sitting pretty. The whole place is nothing but a series of communities, small, medium and large, connected by universities, railways, waterways, and interstates. The state could be a hothouse of new experiments in prosperity. Few places on Earth have the mix of agriculture, chemical industry, research, high tech, small retail, tourism, and finance that New York does. Few places boast HUNDREDS of universities.

New York is a state the size of Belgium with a long, proud history and incredible resources to tap. I hope they use the strength of those communities to build a bright future.

WINNING THE FUTURE: Understanding global trends in business and community development

View more PDF documents from Eric Garland.

« Older Entries

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

Get trend updates sent to your mailbox

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Sign up for the CompFutures Trend Report

Trends we’re tracking

Tags

agriculture analysis bailout bailouts banking banks business development business models California China competitive intelligence debt disruption Economic Development Economics economy education Energy Entrepreneurialism Facebook finance financial crisis forecasting forecasts foresight future Futurism Greece healthcare intelligence leadership Media mergers mindsets music oil petroleum psychology publishing Retail scenarios social media social networks strategy urbanization
Podcast powered by podPress v8.8.10.12