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Posts Tagged ‘digital’

Music’s digital decade

Monday, 04 January 2010 19:37 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Music Digital DecadeCourtesy of Forrester Research, a great graphic describing the innovation of the music industry, from 25 billion euros in 2000 down to 10 billion euros today.

Competitive Futures has been using the music industry as the poster child for strategic disruption since the beginning of the decade. I remember discussions with music executives around the turn of the millennium. Mostly, they were caught in the “moral” indignation of “kids” “stealing” music when they should be paying $18 (closer to $30 in Europe!) for static music media.

My favorite discussion was with an industry exec who attempted to sell me on the notion that “Compared with going to the movies, which is $8, a CD is a great investment because you can play it again and again. It probably should be $100 or something.” Nice. Try.

The conclusion: just because you don’t want to face reality doesn’t make it have less impact.

Vive La France…Vive La France NUMERIQUE! (Long live digital France)

Monday, 20 October 2008 08:29 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Hard times sure can spur innovative action. The current economic chaos could be complemented by some tight, disciplined, creative thinking.

France is in the same hot water as America when it comes to stagnant economic growth and teetering banks. Housing sits vacant or unsold, cars are stuck in the show rooms. While they haven’t had the spectacular fireworks of watching their governments purchase twelve failed banks, the average Frenchmen knows that the status quo won’t endure.

Today, president Nicolas Sarkozy unveiled a major step in the spirit of innovation, France’s digital economy 2012 plan. This program will offer the French people 150 ways to transition to a digital lifestyle and workstyle in the hopes of creating new markets, launching new companies, and ultimately spurring economic growth in a country of crippling social obligations and sub-2% GDP progress. In the next three years, we’ll see a major push toward converting to digital television signal, 100% penetration of broadband internet, the sale of analog TV frequencies to new users, and more.

I believe that Korea was at this level about three years ago, but never mind that. It’s an important move, one that will have dividends.

France has a funny approach to technology leapfrogging. Those who lived in France prior to the Internet remember a revolutionary device known as Minitel, run entirely by France Telecom’s Soviet-style business/politburo, that provided many of our favorite Internet services (stock trades, plane tickets, sports info, etc) as far back as the 1980s. It was way, way ahead of its time. Then, in true French style, the whole country celebrated this world beating progress by tucking in for a nine course meal, talking about how they got there before the Germans, going on strike, and doing nothing for around a decade while the Internet rendered it obsolete.

If you find this a grotesque caricature of French technology policy, have a look at their defense technology after 1918. Having finally beaten back the Prussians, they innovated all sorts of munitions, communications, and aerospace technology. In the 1920s and 1930s, France was a scientific and cultural hotbed, and everybody was pretty impressed with themselves, right up until the moment they discovered that the Panzer tank was even better technology. Historically, the French love to prove they are world class – look at their high-speed trains – but don’t necessarily want to trade their nine weeks of vacation for jittery paranoia in order to stay on top.

This is hard to argue with.

Socio-technological stereotypes aside, I take this as a pretty good sign that France will step up to the plate to compete on the world stage again. It’s right on schedule.

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


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