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Posts Tagged ‘debt’

Student loans outpace credit cards in the United States

Tuesday, 12 April 2011 10:04 Written by Eric Garland 3 Comments

From the New York Times, college students are graduating with increasing amounts of debt, a sum that totals more than Americans are spending on credit cards for the first time.

American labor policy has been to increase the number of college-educated workers as much as possible since the end of the Second World War. Still, the cost of education has been outpacing wages by a factor of 2.5 since 1980. Given the amount of the cost that is borne by student loans, this number is deceptive as to its real impact. The actual amount of wealth spent on education will also have to include interest payments as well.

We believe that there has been a critical error in policy, such that the American government has equated credentials with critical skills. The American economy could end up with millions of college-graduates with credentials on which they are paying interest, but without the skills required by the emerging world economy.

Energy shortage will constrain future economic growth

Saturday, 15 January 2011 08:24 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Though many sources have been making this point, it is notable that the American Institute of Biological Sciences is taking a macroecological approach to the future of human economic activity. In a purely scientific fashion, they look at the relationship between energy consumption and economics, and conclude – not surprisingly – that you can’t have one without the other.

If, then, we are running into stalling production and skyrocketing demand – lots of places simply won’t grow economically, they conclude.

Makes sense. Now, if your government is projecting massive deficits into the future, and in the future economic growth will be constrained, what does that mean to the debt?

I always thought that debt which will never be paid back is either inflation or bankruptcy.

PIMCO’s Bill Gross talks implications of eternal deficit spending

Wednesday, 05 January 2011 09:40 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Zero Hedge has a copy of the latest newsletter from PIMCO’s CEO Bill Gross to his customers. The topic is the quasi-certainty of the U.S. Government continuing its deficit for decades. His tone is very unusual – especially for this member of Generation X – in that he talks about the ethical obligation to future generations in this piece called “Off with our heads!”

  • American politicians and citizens alike have no clear vision of the costs of a seemingly perpetual trillion-dollar annual deficit.
  • Policy stimulus is focused on maintaining current consumption as opposed to making the United States more competitive in the global marketplace.
  • Dollar depreciation will sap the purchasing power of U.S. consumers, as well as the global valuation of dollar denominated assets.

“This isn’t about growth, it’s about fragility”

Friday, 11 June 2010 11:24 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

We couldn’t loveĀ  Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work any more here at CompFutures. His book The Black Swan has become an instant classic for its application of scenario planning to financial markets, showing us that humility and constant skepticism are our constant allies when thinking about future. His work shows us that past performance is not necessarily future reality, and that we probably aren’t as smart as we think we are when making predictions about an ultra-complex, superconnected world.

Plus, he called the financial crisis well before 2008. It’s a small group of contrarians who got that one right. (Ahem.)

For a while, Taleb was in a self-imposed media blackout, terribly weary of having expressed the same ideas time and time again about how “eternal growth” isn’t the only scenario nations and companies should expect. Black swans, he contended in endless interviews, were still on the horizon, circling with plans to challenge the orthodoxies of Keynesianism, Hayekian free markets, or any other old fashioned 20th century notions.

With the new round of economic stimulus, bailouts, and other such faith-based superstitious economic rituals, Taleb is back on the scene to discuss why, contra Krugman, debt-based stimulus packages are making us less safe, giving us growth wrapped in a dangerous package of fragility.

A wonderful, weary, frank interview.


China’s debt risk management isn’t much better

Saturday, 06 February 2010 11:18 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

It looks like the United States and England aren’t the only countries facing billions in bad loans.

When you read “trillions of renminbi of defaulting loans already in China that no one is doing anything about,” you perk up about the coming crises in sovereign debt and realize it is truly global, with global repercussions.

Sign up for the free Competitive Futures Trend Report for more analysis on this topic.

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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