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Posts Tagged ‘construction’

One out of six construction loans in trouble – still a sunny forecast?

Sunday, 06 September 2009 10:10 Written by Eric Garland 3 Comments

Many of my colleagues have been recently wondering how the media regarding the American economy could be so sunny in the face of increasing unemployment. Aug2009U6unemploymentIndeed, how could any recovery happen having doubled the unemployment rate? The U-3 unemployment rate hovers around 9.7%, while underemployment is at a record 16.8%. How can an economy supposedly based on consumer spending come back with twice as many people unable to spend?

Americans have a strong bias toward good news. We are historically, as a people, motivated and entrepreneurial, so rather than dwell on things like history or future trends, we would prefer to get right back to work. This is an admirable trait in general. So long as you are focused on the right things, unthinking hard work is preferable to endless bureaucratic meetings in which you decide a suitable course of action, only after multiple hearings from all parties, et cetera.

There are moments where a sunny disposition is the wrong thing. To be sure, there’s no point in whipping people into a depression-related psychosis, causing a run on the banks and prodding people to fling themselves off bridges because the end is nigh. And economics is at the end of the day a social science; sometimes when people simply think positively, things turn around.

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This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


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