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Posts Tagged ‘China’

Is the West radically misunderstanding the future of business?

Friday, 15 October 2010 13:46 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

Forget what we have to say on the subject, take it from the CEO of financial giant HSBC: The world’s economy is shifting with terrible swiftness toward China and India. Now, you’ve heard that opinion expressed a million times – but what Michael Geoghegan is saying is that this is NOT an incremental transition, as many leaders still perceive it.

We still meet executives who believe that a global outlook is a luxury – nice if you have one, but you can live without it. It is hard to imagine understanding the message presented here and persisting in that worldview.

Paul Denlinger: China’s Strategic Future

Wednesday, 11 August 2010 17:40 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

In this episode of the Competitive Futures Podcast, we interview Paul Denlinger of China Vortex, an author, investor, and executive advisor who specializes in U.S. – China commercial activity. He’s a rare bird indeed, completely fluent in Mandarin and English and totally familiar with the executive leadership mentality of both countries. In this episode, he gives the audience some forecasts about China that you (unfortunately) just won’t be hearing in other media:

  • The crash of 2008 shook China’s faith in the U.S. and sent their strategy away from engagement to the creation of a massive Chinese middle class they hope to drive the world economy
  • China will ramp their use of coal significantly on the way to dominating the world market for renewable energy
  • The markets for many raw materials are being cornered by China today and may leave other countries in the lurch if they don’t act soon

All of this, plus invaluable insight about how the Chinese mentality on the future differs considerably from that in the West.

We hope you enjoy listening to this interview as much as we did making it.

Rebirth of the “made in America” brand

Friday, 09 July 2010 12:28 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

Most consumer purchases in the United States, large and small, involve reading the tag “Made in China.” Everywhere. Everything. Baby toys, shower curtains, plastics of any sort, iPods, furniture – it seems lately that the only thing in America that isn’t made in China is AMERICANS. Maybe we’ll even figure out how to outsource that…

A tip for trend analysis – every major trend has a counter trend. The megatrend of Asian manufacturing is now leading to a powerful counter trend of repatriating operations to America, or at least to make it look like it’s a key component of your brand.

You can see this movement in the “manifesto” commercial for the new Jeep.

Will others competitors follow along?

China, Google, and two notions freedom

Thursday, 08 July 2010 16:55 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Paul Denlinger, a very astute observer of U.S.-China business relations has a fascinating piece up at China Vortex discussing two very different notions of freedom of information that are colliding soon.

One view, ostensibly “American,” is being espoused by Google, Facebook, and their respective CEOs. In short, this view is the early Internet mantra of “Information Wants to Be Free.” Opposing them is the Chinese government, which obviously believes that government should play a role deciding which information goes where in a society.

Read Denlinger’s analysis and decide whether the issue of “information sovereignty” and “individual rights” are as clear as you might think. It just goes to show the incredible role culture needs to play in all of our analyses of the market.

Failed states are great for the Chinese economy

Tuesday, 06 July 2010 09:19 Written by Eric Garland 10 Comments

Go to your newsstand and pick up a copy of Foreign Policy magazine’s July/August 201o issue entitled “The Committee to Destroy the World.” It’s a fascinating, broad analysis of all those countries who don’t play by the rules set out by industrial powerhouses – and why they don’t. If you sweat about the failure of American pension funds, Icelandic treasury bills, or German austerity, then cast also an eye toward North Korea, Zimbabwe and Iran for contrast.

One particular item of interest – failed states aren’t all bad, according to the magazine. They make for cheap and pliable partners for China when it comes to natural resources. We reported on this trend back in 2007 with our STEEP Report series, how China’s massive investment in infrastructure requires a broad range of partners, most of whom then become warmer to the rest of the Middle Kingdom’s strategic goals.

Click on the image for a map of China’s investments in natural resources.

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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