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Posts Tagged ‘business models’

The future is watching the Cosby Show and Cheers

Thursday, 13 January 2011 10:57 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Back in the ancient days of, say, 1996 – back when we were erecting large stone monoliths in honor of the various tree gods in exchange for their mercy during the winter months – there was this strange superstition that one should pay authors and musicians and filmmakers for individual copies of their work. You got to “own” these copies and you were able to listen or read or watch anytime you wanted. Some people even got rich from this business of selling copies of artistic work.

Bizarre, isn’t it?

Now we have a host of digital music services that offer unlimited music for fractions of a penny per listen. But even stranger, we now even have things like Grooveshark which work like the original, gangster, Wild West, lawless version of filesharing circa 2000 – only prettier and easier to use. I’m listening to it now. It is positively baffling how well it works and how free it is.

We have entered into an age like no other, in which a human being born today will essentially have unlimited entertainment from the artistic output of a number of centuries available anywhere he/she goes, and for free.

Future generations will be able to spend a year watching situation comedies from the year 1985 – in real time – commercials and all – available for free in some far off Burbank computer server. Next year, do you want to do nothing but listen to Dixieland jazz and Glenn Miller-era swing? No reason not to. When you have finished, you can read every book published in Scotland in 1820 while listening to Creedence Clearwater Revival. Don’t forget to tune in for our free streaming marathon of Greek and Albanian soap operas! Followed by 2000 straight hours of the Manga Channel, a specially curated webzone for people who love extreme tentacle-centered Japanimation.

And not a dollar will change hands.

Let the implications of that development sink in. It means a lot for how future generations will act.

iPad: does anyone need another computer?

Thursday, 01 April 2010 09:15 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

I answered that question in the negative out of pure instinct, but when you hear that Lulu is already signed on for a publishing distribution deal for iPad, you think – oh yeah, once again Apple doesn’t make devices, they make new business models. And exceedingly few companies are comfortable in that game.

Andy Ihnatko at the Chicago Sun-Times is just flat -out ebullient, in way that transcends fanboy excitement:

In fact, after a week with the iPad, I’m suddenly wondering if any other company is as committed to invention as Apple. Has any other company ever demonstrated a restlessness to stray from the safe and proven, and actually invent things?

Good question: Is your company restlessly invented new things?

Apple’s true killer app: disruptive business models

Tuesday, 05 January 2010 23:26 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Apple Tablet Great analysis from Paul Denlinger at The China Vortex about the upcoming Apple Tablet, and what its real impact will be on the market.

As Denlinger points out, most people assume that the secret of Apple’s success is their reliably sexy user interface. Sure, that’s a critical factor in its dominance of the premium computing market – the stuff works and is beautiful. What makes Apple so influential as a company is its ability to change business models, making everyone else a follower.

Sure, iPod was a great little device, but others had portable MP3 devices, however ugly. It was iTunes that got people thinking of MP3s as legitimate purchases instead of illicit stolen files. The music publishing world is still reeling, and Apple is the number one music retailer in the world. The iPhone is not only cool, it introduced the App Store that allows each phone to be user-customized, with prices set by the free market. They don’t yet own the market, but the word “app” is now an accepted concept in the business lexicon. Sexy brings you to the dance, and wonky, quantifiable, innovatively-engineered business models take you home.

And so what awaits the Tablet?

Now, in order to make the Apple Tablet a real success, it has to have certain functionality which will not cannibalize iPhone and Mac notebook sales. This is why it’s point of attack will have to be on books, magazines and the publishing industry. It will offer developer tools for Apple’s digital publishing solution. Already there is talk about Apple’s new SDK for this new platform.

My prediction is that this new SDK will make it apparent why Apple has not been friendly about offering Adobe’s Flash access to the iPhone, since Apple’s solution will offer much of the same feature set as Adobe Flash, but will be more tightly bundled in on the front and back ends to the device and to the store. (Steve Jobs likes closed ecosystems where he controls the whole experience.) Tough times for Adobe’s Flash and Microsoft’s Silverlight: all dressed up and nowhere to go.

Speaking as an author, the industry is ripe – no, begging – for disruption. And as usual, it’s the Googles and Apples who notice first.

This will be fun to watch.

Music’s digital decade

Monday, 04 January 2010 19:37 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Music Digital DecadeCourtesy of Forrester Research, a great graphic describing the innovation of the music industry, from 25 billion euros in 2000 down to 10 billion euros today.

Competitive Futures has been using the music industry as the poster child for strategic disruption since the beginning of the decade. I remember discussions with music executives around the turn of the millennium. Mostly, they were caught in the “moral” indignation of “kids” “stealing” music when they should be paying $18 (closer to $30 in Europe!) for static music media.

My favorite discussion was with an industry exec who attempted to sell me on the notion that “Compared with going to the movies, which is $8, a CD is a great investment because you can play it again and again. It probably should be $100 or something.” Nice. Try.

The conclusion: just because you don’t want to face reality doesn’t make it have less impact.

2009: Collective disaster / 2010: Individual success

Sunday, 03 January 2010 16:59 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Psychologically, many are glad to have 2009 behind us. It is difficult for people to work in conditions where so much seems out of control, ready to collapse at any moment. The moment seems to have passed. The one facet of 2009 that was clear was the willingness, often at great long-term cost, for government policymakers to keep the status quo with our major institutions. For 2010 – 2020, we can use this political reality, and make more solid plans.

This is not to say that we think that everything is back to “normal.” Have a look at our strategic outlook last year on the major drivers of disruption; none of them are fundamentally different.

Disruption will continue to be the theme of 2010 -2020; those megatrends still hold. Still, the likely stability of 2010 is something you can use.

We have one lesson for clients about studying the future: Just because there is a crisis doesn’t make it a crisis for everyone. When you make solid strategies, disruption can become massive opportunity. In the past decade, the music industry has melted down. It is not a catastrophe for Apple, who launched billion-dollar devices that changed the landscape of media, and then followed up by becoming the world’s largest music retailer. The oil crisis of the 1970s took Shell to the top of the petrochemical industry. Look ahead, think differently, make bold decisions and catastrophe for some can mean success for you.

Perhaps last year many were attempting to avoid the collective catastrophe that comes when all of our institutions catch on fire at the same time. This year, choose your own success.

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This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


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