When forecasting what could happen next, it’s important to remember that this is a social science, the study of how people are likely to behave. The wildcard in all of these prognostications is that the moment people no longer agree to a certain standard of behavior, the world changes. Geopolitical analysts, economists, futurists – everyone would do well to remember this.
Stability, then, is an illusion.
Wouldn’t you agree?
Perverse incentives are leading to more and more “graduates” from American universities leaving without learning to write or think, according to this report from NPR.
Because of some of our ahead-of-the-curve research into the talent crunch, Competitive Futures follows trends in careers and education quite closely. One of the issues we see as particularly interesting is the tension between pervasive unemployment and a shortage of crucial skills. We may end up with lots of people unemployed while businesses are simultaneously clamoring for ready-to-go individuals who can replace the aging Baby Boom population.
Adding another layer of complexity to this dynamic is the massive debt bubble created by all of the individuals in the United States paying inflated prices for educational credentials that are in no way a guaranteed path to a lucrative career. The National Inflation Association has written a compelling analysis of this debt bubble, which we include in its entirety. (With a h/t to Zero Hedge.)
The National Inflation Association believes that the United States has a college education bubble that is set to burst beginning in mid-2011. This bursting bubble will have effects that are even more far-reaching than the bursting of the Real Estate bubble in 2006. College education could possibly be the largest scam in U.S. history.
NIA’s advice to the youth of America today is to think for yourselves. Don’t get suckered into overpaying for a college degree that is worthless because everyone else has one. College is only worth attending if you plan on actually learning something there. If you are only going to college because you think a piece of paper is going to help you find a job, you would be much better off skipping college and entering the workforce right now at any entry level job. Your experience will benefit you more than any piece of paper.
The median U.S. home price is currently $170,600, down 26% from its peak of $230,200 in July of 2006. The Dow Jones is currently 11,672, down 18% from its peak of 14,198 in October of 2007. Oil is currently $91 per barrel, down 38% from its peak of $147 per barrel in July of 2008. After the financial panic of 2008, the U.S. saw a collapse in the prices of just about all assets, goods, services, and commodities. Between lost stock market and home equity wealth, Americans lost $10.2 trillion in paper wealth in 2008, and have only recouped a fraction of it since then.
The New York Times has a nice piece on futurism entitled “Why do we need predictions?” which features several compelling voices on the subject. Some are new to the futures debate such as Robert Shiller of home price analysis fame and Stacy Schiff, author of “Cleopatra: A Life.” Others are the “Usual Suspects” of the futures field, Jaron Lanier on computers and Ray Kurzweil speaking on the singularity for the billionth time.
Speaking of forecasts, this series of articles follow what I’ll call “Garland’s Law” which dictates that every 18 months a news organization will denigrate the notion of foresight only to praise it a year and a half later like nothing happened. See the Economist, WIRED, TV news, major papers and many others for this schizophrenia.
After all, what was hotter in 2009 that proclaiming that nobody should care about the long term future, as banks still teetered on the verge of armageddon? And now it’s 2011…right on time to act like its OK to think beyond next quarter. Again.
See you in late 2012!