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Category: telecommunications

A video compression standards war

Friday, 05 February 2010 20:37 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Yes, it sounds dorky, but these are the weak signals that portend the coming revolution in telepresence.

Will h.264 prevail? What about Ogg Theora? This may seem like a strange debate for anyone not deeply involved in technology analysis for enterprise-quality video, but consider Cisco’s recent purchase of Tandberg, Logitech’s purchase of strange bedfellow LifeSize – there is a clear megatrend for video becoming a mission-critical technology for running businesses and keeping in touch with friends.

But many chess pieces are about to be moved. Check it out.

Music’s digital decade

Monday, 04 January 2010 19:37 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Music Digital DecadeCourtesy of Forrester Research, a great graphic describing the innovation of the music industry, from 25 billion euros in 2000 down to 10 billion euros today.

Competitive Futures has been using the music industry as the poster child for strategic disruption since the beginning of the decade. I remember discussions with music executives around the turn of the millennium. Mostly, they were caught in the “moral” indignation of “kids” “stealing” music when they should be paying $18 (closer to $30 in Europe!) for static music media.

My favorite discussion was with an industry exec who attempted to sell me on the notion that “Compared with going to the movies, which is $8, a CD is a great investment because you can play it again and again. It probably should be $100 or something.” Nice. Try.

The conclusion: just because you don’t want to face reality doesn’t make it have less impact.

Classic futurist bait: digital androids

Monday, 16 November 2009 14:30 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

The future of video conferencing: having a physical representation of you in a room, a mannequin with your face digitally projected onto it.

Creepy? Uh, yes, that’s a word that comes to mind. But people in a few years may look for all kinds of ways to enhance long-distance communications, and this may not be as disturbing.

In the meantime, it’s an interesting technology in a phase of rapid growth.

AT&T ads from 1993 describe services we use today

Sunday, 20 September 2009 14:24 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Further to our series of “Forecasting Works” blog posts, dig these ads for AT&T from 16 years ago, 1993. They forecast, based on their own knowledge of technology and some educated guesses:

  • E-books
  • Telepresence
  • EZ-Pass digital toll collection
  • Online concert ticket sales
  • In-car GPS navigation

Were they completely accurate in these visions? Not entirely, but you’ll have to admit that it is all frighteningly close.

They engaged in a rational process of thinking about the impact of current trends, and it helped light the way.

You can do likewise.

Thoughts from the howling edge of privacy

Tuesday, 17 February 2009 18:08 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Many people on the Interwebs are becoming exercised about the new terms of service of Facebook:

You hereby grant Facebook an irrevocable, perpetual, non-exclusive, transferable, fully paid, worldwide license (with the right to sublicense) to (a) use, copy, publish, stream, store, retain, publicly perform or display, transmit, scan, reformat, modify, edit, frame, translate, excerpt, adapt, create derivative works and distribute (through multiple tiers), any User Content you (i) Post on or in connection with the Facebook Service or the promotion thereof subject only to your privacy settings or (ii) enable a user to Post, including by offering a Share Link on your website and (b) to use your name, likeness and image for any purpose, including commercial or advertising, each of (a) and (b) on or in connection with the Facebook Service or the promotion thereof.

On one hand, this does sound a bit like King Henry VIII on The Tudors, granting himself powers over all matters royal, legal, theological and temporal and starting a new church all at once. This blog, for example, gets posted to my personal Facebook account: can Facebook now make derivative products of ALL futurists on Facebook, print a compendium of foresight blogs? (Who knows, maybe it would be cool?) But it sounds like a lot of power.

On the other hand, I saw one young person comment, “You probably should expect anything you put on the Internet to be available for free, forever.” This is probably the more rational approach.

As Gerd Leonhard is fond of saying, “Compensation, not control.”


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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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