Cisco and Google to converge at the tablet computer
by Eric Garland
First, a headline from the Motley Fool: Cisco Taps Google for an Office Assault. Sounds serious. We think it is, too, and for a variety of reasons.
You may notice that the tech sector has been experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, all angling to find a future of profitability in a world where our information needs all converge into multi-use devices and mobile infrastructure. Whether it’s smart phones, search, or telepresence, it seems that when one megacompany is involved, they are ALL involved.
Just consider the short- and long-term implications of the Cisco Cius – a Google Android-run tablet computer that will allow entreprise-grade video, video and data collaboration.
Business-wise, does your company just specialize in one form of telecommunication? You had better have a serious commitment to a special niche – finance, healthcare, defense, or other – because the mass market will be eaten by some very, very large players.
In terms of business communications, email, phone, and video will finally come together into one smooth package. Meetings will be infused with all kinds of rich content. Quick email messages (so easy to misconstrue!) will likely be replace by short video bursts in which your facial expression will be transmitted along with your words! Collaboration between colleagues around the globe will finally become easy enough to make telecommuting more of a reality than ever.
In this is just one device – think of what lies ahead in the next ten years, both for the companies involved and for those who will use these products and services.
Giant tablet computers for every kid
by Eric Garland
Tell me that when every kid has one of these that education won’t change forever.
Also, let me know how colleges will keep charging $1000 per semester for books when no printing is required.
This is the stuff that makes you say, “Awesome, I think the future just arrived.”
Kno Movie from Kno, Inc. on Vimeo.
The telephone: an even BIGGER threat than I thought
by Eric Garland
With a hat tip to August Jackson, Lloyd’s of London schools us further in the outlandish corporate risk due to the telephone.
Had I not seen this, we might have started using such dangerous technology recklessly.
The telephone: a disruptive technology
by Eric Garland
I loved this graphic, picked up on Twitter. (Click to enlarge) Not sure who Bozarth is, but it’s a clever comparison of social media to the original electric social medium, the telephone.
A few observations, picked up from our years of discussing innovative technologies and new social trends with leaders:
- When people say “It can’t be done,” they usually mean, “We can’t control what will be done with it.” Control, or more accurately the perception of control, is considered FAR more important than creating the forward motion of innovation. Control is almost always the most important value in a large bureaucracy, more important than revenue generation and even profit.
- Most new communication technologies are tested out informally before they become official way of doing “work,” and thus are usually classified as “fooling around, wasting time.” Consider that back in 1996, in the days before Competitive Futures, while using the Internet to research competitors for my then-CEO, I was taken aside by a junior manager who accused me of “playing video games at work.” The video game in question, incidentally, was the EDGAR database of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
- Most every generation underestimates the tech savvy of the generation succeeding it, while simultaneously overestimating the complexity of the next generation of technology. Back in 2000, we did a landmark study of the future of information technology for the construction industry in which we predicted the increased use of cell phones, laptops, GPS, and electronic building plans. Many of the older executives rejected the notion that “construction guys” would be using “the Internet and computers” by 2010. Two assumptions here were faulty: that computer skills were the dominion of the educated, and that “computer” meant “giant, clunky desktop” instead of a smart phone or Toughbook. Today, even the poor kids have Playstation and cell phones, and intrinsically understand electronic menus and text messaging. The generation is more tech savvy, and the tech is simpler.
- The argument of late technology adopters is usually predicated on the idea that they have a CHOICE as to whether the new technology impacts their business. If history is any guide, you can either adopt major technology shifts or wait to see what your competitors will do with the technology. If this is still a question in your mind, why don’t you ask the music industry what it’s like to deny the inevitable.
As such, Competitive Futures is bullish on the long-term impact of social media. It seems inevitable for a host of technological and sociological reasons. Pause for a moment to consider its impact on your customers and your internal management.
A video compression standards war
by Eric Garland
Yes, it sounds dorky, but these are the weak signals that portend the coming revolution in telepresence.
Will h.264 prevail? What about Ogg Theora? This may seem like a strange debate for anyone not deeply involved in technology analysis for enterprise-quality video, but consider Cisco’s recent purchase of Tandberg, Logitech’s purchase of strange bedfellow LifeSize – there is a clear megatrend for video becoming a mission-critical technology for running businesses and keeping in touch with friends.
But many chess pieces are about to be moved. Check it out.
Music’s digital decade
by Eric Garland
Courtesy of Forrester Research, a great graphic describing the innovation of the music industry, from 25 billion euros in 2000 down to 10 billion euros today.
Competitive Futures has been using the music industry as the poster child for strategic disruption since the beginning of the decade. I remember discussions with music executives around the turn of the millennium. Mostly, they were caught in the “moral” indignation of “kids” “stealing” music when they should be paying $18 (closer to $30 in Europe!) for static music media.
My favorite discussion was with an industry exec who attempted to sell me on the notion that “Compared with going to the movies, which is $8, a CD is a great investment because you can play it again and again. It probably should be $100 or something.” Nice. Try.
The conclusion: just because you don’t want to face reality doesn’t make it have less impact.
Classic futurist bait: digital androids
by Eric Garland
The future of video conferencing: having a physical representation of you in a room, a mannequin with your face digitally projected onto it.
Creepy? Uh, yes, that’s a word that comes to mind. But people in a few years may look for all kinds of ways to enhance long-distance communications, and this may not be as disturbing.
In the meantime, it’s an interesting technology in a phase of rapid growth.
AT&T ads from 1993 describe services we use today
by Eric Garland
Further to our series of “Forecasting Works” blog posts, dig these ads for AT&T from 16 years ago, 1993. They forecast, based on their own knowledge of technology and some educated guesses:
- E-books
- Telepresence
- EZ-Pass digital toll collection
- Online concert ticket sales
- In-car GPS navigation
Were they completely accurate in these visions? Not entirely, but you’ll have to admit that it is all frighteningly close.
They engaged in a rational process of thinking about the impact of current trends, and it helped light the way.
You can do likewise.
Thoughts from the howling edge of privacy
by Eric Garland
Many people on the Interwebs are becoming exercised about the new terms of service of Facebook:
You hereby grant Facebook an irrevocable, perpetual, non-exclusive, transferable, fully paid, worldwide license (with the right to sublicense) to (a) use, copy, publish, stream, store, retain, publicly perform or display, transmit, scan, reformat, modify, edit, frame, translate, excerpt, adapt, create derivative works and distribute (through multiple tiers), any User Content you (i) Post on or in connection with the Facebook Service or the promotion thereof subject only to your privacy settings or (ii) enable a user to Post, including by offering a Share Link on your website and (b) to use your name, likeness and image for any purpose, including commercial or advertising, each of (a) and (b) on or in connection with the Facebook Service or the promotion thereof.
On one hand, this does sound a bit like King Henry VIII on The Tudors, granting himself powers over all matters royal, legal, theological and temporal and starting a new church all at once. This blog, for example, gets posted to my personal Facebook account: can Facebook now make derivative products of ALL futurists on Facebook, print a compendium of foresight blogs? (Who knows, maybe it would be cool?) But it sounds like a lot of power.
On the other hand, I saw one young person comment, “You probably should expect anything you put on the Internet to be available for free, forever.” This is probably the more rational approach.
As Gerd Leonhard is fond of saying, “Compensation, not control.”
Business models: Compensation, not control
by Eric Garland
Gerd Leonhard is one of the hardest working guys in the world right now, criss-crossing the globe and trying to figure out the future of making money off music, books, movies, and other content. (Guys like me really appreciate that!)
He has noticed that the “sue the customer” trick didn’t work (ahem) and that a new business model for content is badly needed.
Here, his mantra is “compensation, not control.” Watch the whole thing:
About Eric Garland
Eric is one of the world's pre-eminent thoughtleaders in forecasting and strategy. He helps leaders of business and government make critical decisions about their futures.About Dan Vecchi
Dan Vecchi is the director of economic risk analysis for Competitive Futures. He helps leaders examine their investments in countries around the world, exploring future options and ensuring profitability in the years to come. He speaks natively fluent English, Spanish, Italian and works regularly in South America as well as Europe.New project: Manufacturing 2020!
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