A video compression standards war
Yes, it sounds dorky, but these are the weak signals that portend the coming revolution in telepresence.
Will h.264 prevail? What about Ogg Theora? This may seem like a strange debate for anyone not deeply involved in technology analysis for enterprise-quality video, but consider Cisco’s recent purchase of Tandberg, Logitech’s purchase of strange bedfellow LifeSize – there is a clear megatrend for video becoming a mission-critical technology for running businesses and keeping in touch with friends.
But many chess pieces are about to be moved. Check it out.
Music’s digital decade
Courtesy of Forrester Research, a great graphic describing the innovation of the music industry, from 25 billion euros in 2000 down to 10 billion euros today.
Competitive Futures has been using the music industry as the poster child for strategic disruption since the beginning of the decade. I remember discussions with music executives around the turn of the millennium. Mostly, they were caught in the “moral” indignation of “kids” “stealing” music when they should be paying $18 (closer to $30 in Europe!) for static music media.
My favorite discussion was with an industry exec who attempted to sell me on the notion that “Compared with going to the movies, which is $8, a CD is a great investment because you can play it again and again. It probably should be $100 or something.” Nice. Try.
The conclusion: just because you don’t want to face reality doesn’t make it have less impact.
Classic futurist bait: digital androids
The future of video conferencing: having a physical representation of you in a room, a mannequin with your face digitally projected onto it.
Creepy? Uh, yes, that’s a word that comes to mind. But people in a few years may look for all kinds of ways to enhance long-distance communications, and this may not be as disturbing.
In the meantime, it’s an interesting technology in a phase of rapid growth.
AT&T ads from 1993 describe services we use today
Further to our series of “Forecasting Works” blog posts, dig these ads for AT&T from 16 years ago, 1993. They forecast, based on their own knowledge of technology and some educated guesses:
- E-books
- Telepresence
- EZ-Pass digital toll collection
- Online concert ticket sales
- In-car GPS navigation
Were they completely accurate in these visions? Not entirely, but you’ll have to admit that it is all frighteningly close.
They engaged in a rational process of thinking about the impact of current trends, and it helped light the way.
You can do likewise.
Thoughts from the howling edge of privacy
Many people on the Interwebs are becoming exercised about the new terms of service of Facebook:
You hereby grant Facebook an irrevocable, perpetual, non-exclusive, transferable, fully paid, worldwide license (with the right to sublicense) to (a) use, copy, publish, stream, store, retain, publicly perform or display, transmit, scan, reformat, modify, edit, frame, translate, excerpt, adapt, create derivative works and distribute (through multiple tiers), any User Content you (i) Post on or in connection with the Facebook Service or the promotion thereof subject only to your privacy settings or (ii) enable a user to Post, including by offering a Share Link on your website and (b) to use your name, likeness and image for any purpose, including commercial or advertising, each of (a) and (b) on or in connection with the Facebook Service or the promotion thereof.
On one hand, this does sound a bit like King Henry VIII on The Tudors, granting himself powers over all matters royal, legal, theological and temporal and starting a new church all at once. This blog, for example, gets posted to my personal Facebook account: can Facebook now make derivative products of ALL futurists on Facebook, print a compendium of foresight blogs? (Who knows, maybe it would be cool?) But it sounds like a lot of power.
On the other hand, I saw one young person comment, “You probably should expect anything you put on the Internet to be available for free, forever.” This is probably the more rational approach.
As Gerd Leonhard is fond of saying, “Compensation, not control.”
Business models: Compensation, not control
Gerd Leonhard is one of the hardest working guys in the world right now, criss-crossing the globe and trying to figure out the future of making money off music, books, movies, and other content. (Guys like me really appreciate that!)
He has noticed that the “sue the customer” trick didn’t work (ahem) and that a new business model for content is badly needed.
Here, his mantra is “compensation, not control.” Watch the whole thing:
Economic disaster! And, um…MILLIONS OF iPhones!
If we are on the brink of a Great Depression, the run up to it looks a little unusual:
AT&T said Wednesday that it activated 1.9 million iPhone 3Gs in the fourth quarter with 40 percent of those activations representing new customers.
In the back half of 2008, AT&T activated more than 4.3 million iPhones (statement). AT&T also noted that it iPhone customers deliver higher revenue per user and have lower churn rates.
via ยป AT&T: 1.9 million iPhones activated | Between the Lines | ZDNet.com.
Estonia will be voting by mobile phone in 2011
These are the kinds of cool things you can do when your country is:
a) small
b) starting an infrastructure from scratch after Soviet occupation
According to Raul Kaidro, spokesman of the SK Certification Center, which issues personal ID cards in Estonia, security will not be an issue as the cell phone, “is the most secure way to authenticate digital signatures.”
What does this mean for large countries for whom this would be punishingly expensive and/or difficult? As American, I feel like we won’t win the science fair this year…
Faster travel, reduced privacy: France considers the implications of Big Brother Technologies
Since they began to find profitable applications ten years ago, it has been fascinating to the see the degree to which RFID tags are being used in a variety of convenience-enhancing applications. Don’t stop for toll roads! No need to swipe your card! Just get near enough for us to scan you, and you’re on your way
.Naturally, this has an unintended consequence: human being are generating massive amounts of data about their behavior, from travel patterns to shopping preferences. These data are being collected by central databases, both by governments and private entities. Free democracies have certain implicit and explicit expectations of privacy, but we are at the point of unprecedented technological power in tracking human 
beings and most everything they do.
Dialogue is in order – we need to decide what we feel about this, what we expect; our values of right and wrong.
Some have already started: France’s Le Figaro newspaper has an article this morning about how the rail company is sounding the alarm that it cannot necessarily guarantee “anonymous” travel when using the regular RFID-chipped NaviGo pass.
This has led to a higher paid, but anonymous version of the card called “Navigo Decouverte.” But also it leads to a polemic. Is our privacy ours, or must we purchase it just as we purchase other goods and services? Are our laws made with enough foresight to handle the challenges these technologies may pose to liberty and open society?
It’s nice to see that France is paying attention. Let’s dialogue!
Digaband: Tools for young musicians
Man, growing up as a musician in rural Vermont, I would have LOVED to interface with creative musicians around the world. It would have been literally unthinkably cool. Just ran across this company/website/organization called Digaband, which claims to want to replace record companies. Great that they want to increase traffic and fanbase – everybody wants more exposure. But speaking as the former resident of a rural area, it would have been great to simply interact with other people trying to make their way as professional musicians.
In a world with some questionably depressing updates, these are the kinds of developments that tell you ever better stuff is on the way.
About Eric Garland
Eric is one of the world's pre-eminent thoughtleaders in forecasting and strategy. He helps leaders of business and government make critical decisions about their futures.New project: Manufacturing 2020!
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