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Category: Technology

iPad: does anyone need another computer?

Thursday, 01 April 2010 09:15 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

I answered that question in the negative out of pure instinct, but when you hear that Lulu is already signed on for a publishing distribution deal for iPad, you think – oh yeah, once again Apple doesn’t make devices, they make new business models. And exceedingly few companies are comfortable in that game.

Andy Ihnatko at the Chicago Sun-Times is just flat -out ebullient, in way that transcends fanboy excitement:

In fact, after a week with the iPad, I’m suddenly wondering if any other company is as committed to invention as Apple. Has any other company ever demonstrated a restlessness to stray from the safe and proven, and actually invent things?

Good question: Is your company restlessly invented new things?

The telephone: an even BIGGER threat than I thought

Thursday, 18 March 2010 12:22 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

With a hat tip to August Jackson, Lloyd’s of London schools us further in the outlandish corporate risk due to the telephone.

Had I not seen this, we might have started using such dangerous technology recklessly.

New technology – the threat to our information
View more presentations from normanlamont.

A video compression standards war

Friday, 05 February 2010 20:37 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Yes, it sounds dorky, but these are the weak signals that portend the coming revolution in telepresence.

Will h.264 prevail? What about Ogg Theora? This may seem like a strange debate for anyone not deeply involved in technology analysis for enterprise-quality video, but consider Cisco’s recent purchase of Tandberg, Logitech’s purchase of strange bedfellow LifeSize – there is a clear megatrend for video becoming a mission-critical technology for running businesses and keeping in touch with friends.

But many chess pieces are about to be moved. Check it out.

Music’s digital decade

Monday, 04 January 2010 19:37 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Music Digital DecadeCourtesy of Forrester Research, a great graphic describing the innovation of the music industry, from 25 billion euros in 2000 down to 10 billion euros today.

Competitive Futures has been using the music industry as the poster child for strategic disruption since the beginning of the decade. I remember discussions with music executives around the turn of the millennium. Mostly, they were caught in the “moral” indignation of “kids” “stealing” music when they should be paying $18 (closer to $30 in Europe!) for static music media.

My favorite discussion was with an industry exec who attempted to sell me on the notion that “Compared with going to the movies, which is $8, a CD is a great investment because you can play it again and again. It probably should be $100 or something.” Nice. Try.

The conclusion: just because you don’t want to face reality doesn’t make it have less impact.

Auto-Tune, Internet memes, and future trend analysis

Wednesday, 25 November 2009 09:38 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

It’s Thanksgiving week here in the United States, and I am very grateful to have found a video clip that features three of my favorite things:

  1. Music technology
  2. Weird Al Yankovic
  3. Analytical tools to understand trends

You’ll admit, the Venn Diagram of such varying interests have a tiny intersection, so personally I’m going to enjoy it.

Here’s why the story of Auto-Tune is of interest to intelligence and decision making types. There’s nothing particularly universal about the software itself – it’s a “plugin” used for digital music production for the correction of vocals. If you sing out of tune, Auto-Tune drags you back into A440 pitch, using effects that range from imperceptible to robotic. As of 2009, the term “Auto-Tune” is a verb, and adjective and an Internet meme, for the reasons given in the video below. Unbeknown to the masses who know the effect through artists like T-Pain and The Gregory Brothers, the effect has been in use since 1997. Only now has it come to the cultural forefront. Why?

  • Evolution of Auto-Tune from hardware to a software plugin usable with digital audio workstations
  • Drop in price of Auto-Tune
  • Increase in processing power and bandwidth of computing and the Internet in general
  • Proliferation of free social media sites such as YouTube and MySpace

In short, the technology got cheaper, easier to use, and easier to distribute. This has led to the proliferation of an “Internet meme,” an idea that virally spawns a burst of creativity around the world on the same theme. What I love about this video from Rocketboom is their description of the four stages of an Internet meme, offering us a certain level of predictability for future memes. The stages are:

  1. Introduction
  2. Overexposure
  3. Parody and remix
  4. Equilibrium

You may not connect Lolcatz or dramatic chipmunk with economic forecasting or product management, but at Competitive Futures, we see significant similarities. Short-term fads and memes regularly invade the public consciousness, and as a decision maker you must understand their dynamics. Is green business a meme created by the media, or is it driven by structural factors? What about “ethical business,” is that just a popular reaction to the scandal in the financial world, or a development in the world of management? Is “collaboration” a marketing meme to describe the same old information technologies, or is it truly a driver of business value in the next decade?  We recommend that you collect a variety of data-driven trends to help your analysis – preferably trends that are under-reported and thus immune to the dynamics of Internet- or media-driven memes.

While you consider such heady stuff on the way into a long weekend, think it over with the Gregory Brothers, the world’s most awesome political-remix-Auto-Tuners:

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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