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Category: Technology

Expert technology assessment of vintage innovations

Saturday, 22 January 2011 11:04 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

One of the key elements of writing scenarios is accepting that you are describing people of the future who will most likely not share your assumptions about the world. Their society will look and act differently. Technology will solve new problems and cause new complications. They won’t be, in many ways, like you and me. This is scary, because it makes us feel obsolete and more likely to avoid the real implications of where the world is heading. Nobody likes a bracing shot of mortality with their futures work – but that’s what we get.

Don’t believe that your world will one day look foreign? Watch this group of Quebec schoolkids try to somehow fathom the bizarre world that you and I must have inhabited.

What, after all, could this strange, backward group of people been thinking to be playing with this absurdly inferior technology?

Competitive Futures, Inc now valued at $325 million as per new investment deal

Thursday, 06 January 2011 16:47 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

I really wish that the title of the above post wasn’t merely a snarky way to call attention to the fact that with hedge fund investment deals like the ones Twitter and Facebook are touting, we’re back to the good old days of irrational tech exurberance. I suppose if it were true, I wouldn’t be typing but would instead be happily playing my absurdly large collection of vintage Stratocasters and D’angelico New Yorker archtops through my vintage Fender Twin amps in our chateau in the Loire valley.

Guitaristic dreams aside, we seem to be back into an interesting of period that recalls the halcyon days of the Dot Com Bubble 1.0. Back then, the glorious days of new-car-smelling Porsche Boxsters, spiffy leather jackets and brand-new bulky cell phones, you didn’t have to prove any piffling details like how much profit you made in order for your company to be worth bazillions of dollars. You even got to say things like, “We’re the company of the future, although we are still searching for a business model.”

Ah, the good ol’ days of making $75,000 just for knowing how to spell “HTML.”

Facebook’s interesting new “valuation” at $50 billion is raising the eyebrows of a few people who understand the basics of how a company’s value is typically computed. So says William Cohen in the New York Times:

Last August, Facebook was valued at $27 billion and now it’s $50 billion — for a company with a reported $2 billion in revenue and negligible profits. If General Electric, with 2010 revenue of around $150 billion, traded at a similar multiple of revenue, it would be worth $3.75 trillion instead of $200 billion. Facebook is now considered to be worth more than Time Warner, DuPont and Goldman’s rival Morgan Stanley.

Something is definitely up. This is why we were intrigued to discover that there is actually more IPO deal activity now than during the late 90s!


Can I have a Porsche Boxster please?

Cisco and Google to converge at the tablet computer

Friday, 02 July 2010 13:24 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

First, a headline from the Motley Fool: Cisco Taps Google for an Office Assault. Sounds serious. We think it is, too, and for a variety of reasons.

You may notice that the tech sector has been experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, all angling to find a future of profitability in a world where our information needs all converge into multi-use devices and mobile infrastructure. Whether it’s smart phones, search, or telepresence, it seems that when one megacompany is involved, they are ALL involved.

Just consider the short- and long-term implications of the Cisco Cius – a Google Android-run tablet computer that will allow entreprise-grade video, video and data collaboration.

Business-wise, does your company just specialize in one form of telecommunication? You had better have a serious commitment to a special niche – finance, healthcare, defense, or other – because the mass market will be eaten by some very, very large players.

In terms of business communications, email, phone, and video will finally come together into one smooth package. Meetings will be infused with all kinds of rich content. Quick email messages (so easy to misconstrue!) will likely be replace by short video bursts in which your facial expression will be transmitted along with your words! Collaboration between colleagues around the globe will finally become easy enough to make telecommuting more of a reality than ever.

In this is just one device – think of what lies ahead in the next ten years, both for the companies involved and for those who will use these products and services.

Giant tablet computers for every kid

Friday, 04 June 2010 10:48 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

Tell me that when every kid has one of these that education won’t change forever.

Also, let me know how colleges will keep charging $1000 per semester for books when no printing is required.

This is the stuff that makes you say, “Awesome, I think the future just arrived.”

Kno Movie from Kno, Inc. on Vimeo.

Pat Metheny’s Orchestrion: Robots playing music

Sunday, 16 May 2010 11:46 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Often, I think the 21st century may look increasingly like the 19th. Sure, there’s the dominance of coal in the developing world. There’s unprecedented globalization. European disintegration. Resurgence of local agriculture. All this, plus world health is considerably better. Not a bad future, necessarily.

In the musical world, there is a recent event that hearkens back to the 19th century days of the player piano, but will 21st century elegance and complexity. Pat Metheny, one of the top guitarists and composers in the world, has experimented for years with MIDI (Musical Instrument Digital Interface), the technology that allows musicians to connect directly to synthesizers, samplers, and recording devices. This year, his vision has gone steampunk – the Orchestrion project, a centrally-coordinated digital orchestra that triggers actual instruments instead of their synthesized counterparts.

Watch the video – this is an incredibly beautiful sounding vision by a mad professor bent on calling back a more elegant age.

Beats talking about housing and finance for a moment.

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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