I have no idea how I managed to miss this incredible video for so long:
Are You Ready for the 21st Century ? from Michel Cartier on Vimeo.
I have no idea how I managed to miss this incredible video for so long:
Are You Ready for the 21st Century ? from Michel Cartier on Vimeo.
For the first time ever man is becoming a majority urban creature. It’s hard to overestimate this change. Since the Fertile Crescent in 10,000 B.C., cities were only a fraction of human population, even if they were the centers of technology and culture. Humans throughout history have been mostly villagers, mountain people, hunter/gatherers.
In 1800 only 3% of humans lived in cities. Most people never saw a city, and the vast majority didn’t trust city folk when they came to town. They earned nasty terms like “city slicker” and “vilain,” which is just old French for “city slicker.”
By 1900, in the midst of the Industrial Revolution, only 6% resided in urban areas. Plenty of economic opportunity was to be had in the fields and in the mines of the countryside. Manufacturing and intellectual work still represented a minority of the jobs available.
Now in 2009, more than half of humanity lives in cities. Upward of 88% of all economic activity happens in cities – and this is increasing. Job opportunities in the countryside are disappearing as the knowledge economy makes physical capital less valuable and makes innovation the main driver of competitiveness.
Not all cities are created equal. Amsterdam, San Francisco, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Paris are monuments to culture, economic vitality, and learning, blessed by sufficient infrastructure and social stability. The urban future also means Lagos, Nigeria, Mexico D.F., Cairo, Egypt, Manila, Philippines, Calcutta, India, and more – cities of five, ten and twenty million inhabitants with critical sanitation problems, insufficient water, crumbling roads, and few jobs for the refugees from even deeper rural poverty.
For this reason Competitive Futures took a closer look at the future of what is likely to be our most common environment, the urban area. Enjoy.
It is impossible to fix any problem while continuing to use the mindset that created that problem. This is an old saw, used to extoll the virtues of examining your assumptions.
Naturally, if you want the opposite of the Wall Street-speculator-growth-at-all-costs model, you need to talk to people who remember lots of past and have been around to see lots of future – Native Americans. I have the great honor of working with Mr. Jack Soto, director of the Washington Internship for Native Students (WINS) program at American University on issues of tribal leadership and the future. Jack’s program brings native students from around the continent to Washington to connect them with the mechanistic workings of Washington.
In this podcast, we go deep into the difference in perspective between US corporate, suburban culture and the constant rebirth going on in the native communities, what it means for their nations, and what we can learn from each other about the recreation of communities.
And we’re not diving into the typical, “Native Peoples Are More Holistic” claptrap. During the hour, we get into the deep background in complex business transactions that most tribes have, their process of constantly recreating nations and governments to suit evolving reality, casinos and their effect, Jack Abramoff (“Live and Learn“), why natives aren’t really environmentalists, and much more.
Enjoy.
Competitive Futures Podcast with Jack Soto, Washington Internship for Native Students Play Now | Play in Popup | Download
Seth Godin stands conventional wisdom on its head:
The Prius was developed after the marketing thinking was done. Jones Soda, too. In fact, just about every successful product or service is the result of smart marketing thinking first, followed by a great product that makes the marketing story come true.
This makes quite a statement about the inherent value of products and services. Is something only ever as good as we are convinced it is? Is perception now 110% of reality?
Due to a highly interesting debate on Twitter, I’d like to recast the spontaneous debate between Mr. Keen and myself regarding the potential use of Web 2.0 technologies.
For the record, Keen does not say that Web 2.0 is doomed to fascism, he says it’s “fucked.” He believes that as economic realities get more dire, fascist elements could seize Web 2.0 as a tool to whip up frenzy. It is not certain that Web 2.0 will lead to fascism, but he believes that social media could be even less democratic than the media used in the pre-web industrial era, media that was dominated and guarded by experts and official sources. His typical argument, well expressed in his books and articles, is that most people on social media can hide behind anonymity, whereas professional sources are incentivized to stay professional and accurate. I am paraphrasing, but his argument seems to be that Web 2.0 risks being seized by fascists, capitalizing on that anonymous, vituperative, snarky spirit in some corners of the Internet to whip up sentiments for nationalism. A provocatively-titled piece in the Daily Beast called The Internet is Bad For You explores this risk.
My retort is that fascism worked much better with few sources of official media, broadcasting owned by central sources and manipulated by the concentrated power of elites in a nationalistic government. While Web 2.0 surely can be used as a tool for fascist elements in society, I think they had a better deal when it was really expensive to own radio and television towers. Web 2.0 allows nearly infinite social networks, and while many of these could be angry, nationalistic, and sympathetic to fascism, the structure of the technology works against its fundamental logic of conformity. Fascism worked well with single arguments, uniforms, flags, and national anthems. Web 2.0 leads more to a giant jumble of micro-niches, groups that only ever really come together to watch clips of British talent shows and similarly democratic events. The rest of the time, it’s herding cats.
Keen is right, though – the real risk is poverty and injustice. Prevent that, and the fascist gangs should remain at bay.
This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.
For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co