Psychologically, many are glad to have 2009 behind us. It is difficult for people to work in conditions where so much seems out of control, ready to collapse at any moment. The moment seems to have passed. The one facet of 2009 that was clear was the willingness, often at great long-term cost, for government policymakers to keep the status quo with our major institutions. For 2010 – 2020, we can use this political reality, and make more solid plans.
This is not to say that we think that everything is back to “normal.” Have a look at our strategic outlook last year on the major drivers of disruption; none of them are fundamentally different.
Disruption will continue to be the theme of 2010 -2020; those megatrends still hold. Still, the likely stability of 2010 is something you can use.
We have one lesson for clients about studying the future: Just because there is a crisis doesn’t make it a crisis for everyone. When you make solid strategies, disruption can become massive opportunity. In the past decade, the music industry has melted down. It is not a catastrophe for Apple, who launched billion-dollar devices that changed the landscape of media, and then followed up by becoming the world’s largest music retailer. The oil crisis of the 1970s took Shell to the top of the petrochemical industry. Look ahead, think differently, make bold decisions and catastrophe for some can mean success for you.
Perhaps last year many were attempting to avoid the collective catastrophe that comes when all of our institutions catch on fire at the same time. This year, choose your own success.
NN however, has crossed the line. I have listened to them poke the corpse of Michael Jackson for two consecutive weeks. His father, his doctor, “It could have been a murder!” despite the strain of 75 different plastic surgeries. I can take no more. I find now that my exercise is no longer limited by my cardiovascular capacity, but by my ability to withstand the Stupid.