• Home
  • About
    • About Competitive Futures
    • About Eric Garland
    • News
  • Case studies
    • Competitive strategy
    • Economic development
    • Opportunity assessment
  • Services
    • Research
      • Technology foresight
      • Future customer profiles
      • Competitor positioning
      • Investment due diligence
    • Training
      • Future Intelligence course
      • Real Forecasting
  • Media
    • Best practice reports
    • Books by Eric Garland
    • Articles by Eric Garland
    • Podcast episodes
    • STEEP Reports
    • Presentations
  • Blog
  • Contact

Category: politics

Ferguson – America will run deficits until 2080

Tuesday, 04 January 2011 09:26 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Perhaps you did or did not make it through the entire lecture and Q&A with Prof Niall Ferguson in yesterday’s post. Either way, you may have missed the key forecast that underlies all of his thinking about the future of the American economic system:

The U.S. is poised to run major budget deficits in addition to its current debt through 2080.

Take a second to think about that.

This morning’s papers, in advance of the Republican takeover of the House of Representatives, are reporting the upcoming “serious budget cuts” to be proposed by the new house members. It makes for good copy – after all, things might soon be different!

Let’s look at the actual projections from the Congressional Budget Office.

US Budget Deficit through 2080

Ferguson points out that there is not currently the political will to reverse this trend since it involves the sweeping entitlements of Medicare and Medicaid. These two programs alone will, by 2080, equal the entire size of the United States government in 2010, never mind military and education and all the rest. Ferguson is not bullish on the notion that future generations of politicos will stare into the eyes of retiring Baby Boomers and say, “sorry, no pensions for you, and you can buy your own healthcare.”

So America, despite its headlines, will still engage in deficit spending unless something very drastic and unexpected comes to pass. That’s an important long view to have as the politicians take to the airways.

Will Vermont secede from the United States?

Sunday, 31 January 2010 13:36 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

There is an interesting development at the intersection of political trends and economic trends. We have been recently covering the economic fissures in some of our largest states. California, Arizona, Illinois and Michigan teeter on the brink of financial crisis, and this in turn menaces the integrity of the United States Constitution. Letting California’s bonds go to junk will have long-reaching impacts – but if the Federal government begins distributing bailouts selectively, there are bigger legal problems at stake. Other states will have recourse to ask for money from the Federal government, making the relationships of the 50 states complicated indeed.

What’s another option for states? Leaving altogether. Now that’s a new trend in these parts.

The state of Vermont has had a secessionist movement dating back over 200 years, back to the time when it was an independent republic. It’s mostly been a topic of discussion over an excess of beer in pubs – until recently. Now, Time magazine reports that seven separate candidates are running for the state senate on a secessionist platform – plus a candidate for Lieutenant Governor. One of the points they raise is that the state is a net positive to the federal government, only receiving 75 cents in services for each dollar collected in taxes. Thus, a way to balance the books for Vermont is to cease paying US Federal taxes, and to move out on its own. And they are forecasting:

By 2020, they foresee Vermont producing at least 75% of its own electricity and heat, using wind-, solar-, biomass- and hydro-power. They want to establish a Bank of Vermont owned by the people of Vermont — freed from the arbitrary controls of central bankers — as well as a local alternative currency, with Vermont pension and operating funds invested not in Wall Street but in locally owned financial institutions.

A trend to follow.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1957743,00.html#ixzz0eDTTVcS3

American political spending tops $1 billion – what it means for business

Wednesday, 09 December 2009 11:28 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Throughout the past decade, Competitive Futures has been forecasting an increased role in “government relations” and lobbying for many major industries. The pharmaceutical industry has increasing reliance on governments, who are far and away their biggest customer. The increased prevalence of Asian manufacturing has made trade regulations a bigger factor in competition. Of course, this has finally gone into overdrive this year, as governments have begun buying majority stakes in a variety of critical industries.

It should be no surprise then that political advertising in America hit $1 billion this year. Competition is becoming increasingly about policies and who is making them, less about any notion of a free and functioning market.

In addition to competitive intelligence, you need political intelligence to complete your view of strategic scenarios.

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

Get trend updates sent to your mailbox

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Sign up for the CompFutures Trend Report

Trends we’re tracking

Tags

agriculture analysis bailout bailouts banking banks business development business models California China competitive intelligence debt disruption Economic Development Economics economy education Energy Entrepreneurialism Facebook finance financial crisis forecasting forecasts foresight future Futurism Greece healthcare intelligence leadership Media mergers mindsets music oil petroleum psychology publishing Retail scenarios social media social networks strategy urbanization
Podcast powered by podPress v8.8.10.12