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Category: National Security

Paul Denlinger: China’s Strategic Future

Wednesday, 11 August 2010 17:40 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

In this episode of the Competitive Futures Podcast, we interview Paul Denlinger of China Vortex, an author, investor, and executive advisor who specializes in U.S. – China commercial activity. He’s a rare bird indeed, completely fluent in Mandarin and English and totally familiar with the executive leadership mentality of both countries. In this episode, he gives the audience some forecasts about China that you (unfortunately) just won’t be hearing in other media:

  • The crash of 2008 shook China’s faith in the U.S. and sent their strategy away from engagement to the creation of a massive Chinese middle class they hope to drive the world economy
  • China will ramp their use of coal significantly on the way to dominating the world market for renewable energy
  • The markets for many raw materials are being cornered by China today and may leave other countries in the lurch if they don’t act soon

All of this, plus invaluable insight about how the Chinese mentality on the future differs considerably from that in the West.

We hope you enjoy listening to this interview as much as we did making it.

Failed states are great for the Chinese economy

Tuesday, 06 July 2010 09:19 Written by Eric Garland 10 Comments

Go to your newsstand and pick up a copy of Foreign Policy magazine’s July/August 201o issue entitled “The Committee to Destroy the World.” It’s a fascinating, broad analysis of all those countries who don’t play by the rules set out by industrial powerhouses – and why they don’t. If you sweat about the failure of American pension funds, Icelandic treasury bills, or German austerity, then cast also an eye toward North Korea, Zimbabwe and Iran for contrast.

One particular item of interest – failed states aren’t all bad, according to the magazine. They make for cheap and pliable partners for China when it comes to natural resources. We reported on this trend back in 2007 with our STEEP Report series, how China’s massive investment in infrastructure requires a broad range of partners, most of whom then become warmer to the rest of the Middle Kingdom’s strategic goals.

Click on the image for a map of China’s investments in natural resources.

Spanish intelligence services: financial crisis is a conspiracy

Monday, 15 February 2010 15:22 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Usually, it’s the job of tin-pot dictators like Chavez and Ahmedinejad to trot out their intelligence services and declare that the world is out to get them.

But when the Spanish intelligence service says the country is under attack from speculators in a clear conspiracy, it’s a sign of something deeply interesting. First, it’s a telltale sign that people high in the Spanish government are concerned that greater instability is on the way from the sovereign debt crisis, and they are attempting to control the narrative.

For those of us practicing future intelligence, this is a call for us to examine the broader political trends at play. Most views of the future take the Euroland to be a stable economic entity for all scenarios. Generally, a meltdown of the single currency and a brushfire war between Belgium and Portugal are considered far out.  At the very least, most people consider the continued operation of the EU to be a given – after all, it has resulted in one of the most successful, peaceful, prosperous times in the history of the continent, especially after the tumult of the early 20th century.

Still, it may be that the success of Euroland has required all countries to play a part for which they are ill-suited. Spain still has 20% unemployment. Greece’s debt is out of control. In the days before the single currency, each country would have been free to fail, unsupported by the largesse of France and Germany. Today, they have been supported through their use of a stable, global reserve currency. Like so much, this may be borrowed equity, and borrowed time.

Imagine a future for your business, and indeed your nation, in a world where Europe re-fragments. It may be less far-out than previously thought.

The next 100 years of national security

Thursday, 22 January 2009 13:40 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Stop what you’re doing right now and read through this slide deck from David J. Williams, author of the science fiction novel (soon-to-be-classic) The Mirrored Heavens. David started life as a futurist of some repute for companies around the globe, and then made the logical transition into writing a trilogy of novels on the future of global security.

While many thinkers are grappling with the “Long War” of asymmetrical warfare against terrorists, Williams is going straight for the implications of this transition and what’s likely to come next. Essential reading.

David J Williams on the Future Of War
View more presentations or upload your own. (tags: scenarios national)

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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