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Category: leadership

Michael Porter: Business must recognize its interconnected role in society

Thursday, 10 December 2009 16:36 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

This is a timely and very mature view on the changing role of business in society. Michael Porter, still the world’s leading authority on traditional business strategy, leaps out and asks some fascinating questions of private industry as a whole: does it realize the difference between its narrow self-interest and the broader society to which it is indelibly interconnected?

I particularly like how he distinguishes between multiple levels of not understanding social interconnection and responsibility. One end of the spectrum, you have the Madoffs and “banksters” of the world, pathologically removing value from society and giving absolutely nothing back. Toward the grey zone, you have businesses who may profit while destroying the social and economic fabric of the places around them, throwing on some charitable giving as a band-aid.

This talk is an important signal to private industry. Clearly, the lack of connection between business and society is so great that you not only have the occasional death threat on banking executives for taking bonuses straight from the US federal treasury, you have well-paid, world-famous consultants actually asking the question, “So why do we even have business, anyway?” Seriously, Michael Porter isn’t exactly a Trotskyite radical.

This isn’t connectivity for the sake of feeling good, it is a methodology that will lead you to provide value to your customers and withstand the forces of competition. Superconnection is the future.

Managing by a constant state of emergency

Tuesday, 01 December 2009 13:27 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

A thought drifts through my head as I consider the Dubai debacle and the high-traffic/low-sales results from the semi-sinisterly named Black Friday retail festival:

FLnatcheetos-thumb

Seriously, wasn’t that just a few months ago that everything was green, since the price of oil was driven so high by speculation?

Then September of 2008 arrived and suddenly things were about ethical business. After all, it was that nasty greed that ruined everything – and a lack of transparency! That’s it, now all business needs to be ethical and transparent…and green, too, of course!

Yet today, we’re thinking about just how many world banks were up to their knees in can’t-miss Dubai real estate projects and hoping that the world’s currencies don’t catch fire.

This is why leadership needs to be about long-term structural trends. The media can’t hype up the Boomer retirement, it can’t negotiate with the oil present in Brazil, nor deny that most of the world’s young people live in Latin America, Africa, and Central Asia. When we build our plans around real trends rather than hype, we don’t have to re-write our strategies every few months. Real leaders will find that comforting.

The revolution of algorithmic authority

Monday, 23 November 2009 10:55 Written by Eric Garland 3 Comments

Clay Shirky recently began exploring a significantly important idea in Intelligence 2.0, that of algorithmic authority, a new form of trust that befits the complex informational environment of the 21st century. For those of us who assemble large amounts of data for decision makers, authority is critical, and it is under major stress due to the Internet. Until recently, you could help leaders make the most informed decisions by assembling the most authoritative sources, interpret the implications of that data, and go forth understanding several potential courses of action. Today, we must also add a new dimension – evaluating the validity of the information as the barriers to entry fall in the world of printing and distribution. Shirky’s theory helps us in this regard:

Algorithmic authority is the decision to regard as authoritative an unmanaged process of extracting value from diverse, untrustworthy sources, without any human standing beside the result saying “Trust this because you trust me.” This model of authority differs from personal or institutional authority, and has, I think, three critical characteristics.

First, it takes in material from multiple sources, which sources themselves are not universally vetted for their trustworthiness, and it combines those sources in a way that doesn’t rely on any human manager to sign off on the results before they are published. This is how Google’s PageRank algorithm works, it’s how Twitscoop’s zeitgeist measurement works, it’s how Wikipedia’s post hoc peer review works. At this point, its just an information tool.

Second, it produces good results, and as a consequence people come to trust it. At this point, it’s become a valuable information tool, but not yet anything more.

The third characteristic is when people become aware not just of their own trust but of the trust of others: “I use Wikipedia all the time, and other members of my group do as well.” Once everyone in the group has this realization, checking Wikipedia is tantamount to answering the kinds of questions Wikipedia purports to answer, for that group. This is the transition to algorithmic authority.

Arik Johnson on the organizations of the future

Thursday, 19 November 2009 09:56 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

The most important implications of any strategic trend is usually not that your organization must do something drastic, it is that your organization is obsolete and can’t respond effectively at all.

Case in point: newspapers and the Internet. It’s not so much that newspapers could have done something to maintain their business model of classified advertising, it’s that they need a brand new business model and structure to survive. If that is the major implication of the trends we track as strategic analysts, then we almost must develop skills to help organizations change quickly and painlessly.

On that note, check out this talk from Aurora WDC’s Arik Johnson on the future of organizations, recorded at last month’s Intelligence Collaborative meeting in Washington.

Nokia on our digital lives in 2015

Saturday, 14 November 2009 07:56 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Nokia is the poster child for futures thinking at the corporate level. They pulled off the amazing feat of transitioning their company from logging supplies, rubber boots and toilet paper over to cell phones, spurred by the transformative event of the bankruptcy of the Soviet Union. (How did they pull this off? I detail it in my book “Future Inc.”)

Finland in general, due to their somewhat obscure position in Europe and the humility of being regularly invaded by Swedes and Russians alike for centuries, has become REALLY good at foresight. Thus, it’s no surprise to see Nokia’s vision for our digital lives in 2015 laid out in beautiful graphical scenarios as in the video below.

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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