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Category: Information Technology

The telephone: a disruptive technology

Thursday, 18 March 2010 10:43 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

I loved this graphic, picked up on Twitter. (Click to enlarge) Not sure who Bozarth is, but it’s a clever comparison of social media to the original electric social medium, the telephone.

A few observations, picked up from our years of discussing innovative technologies and new social trends with leaders:

  • When people say “It can’t be done,” they usually mean, “We can’t control what will be done with it.” Control, or more accurately the perception of control, is considered FAR more important than creating the forward motion of innovation. Control is almost always the most important value in a large bureaucracy,  more important than revenue generation and even profit.
  • Most new communication technologies are tested out informally before they become official way of doing “work,” and thus are usually classified as “fooling around, wasting time.” Consider that back in 1996, in the days before Competitive Futures, while using the Internet to research competitors for my then-CEO, I was taken aside by a junior manager who accused me of “playing video games at work.” The video game in question, incidentally, was the EDGAR database of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Most every generation underestimates the tech savvy of the generation succeeding it, while simultaneously overestimating the complexity of the next generation of technology. Back in 2000, we did a landmark study of the future of information technology for the construction industry in which we predicted the increased use of cell phones, laptops, GPS, and electronic building plans. Many of the older executives rejected the notion that “construction guys” would be using “the Internet and computers” by 2010. Two assumptions here were faulty: that computer skills were the dominion of the educated, and that “computer” meant “giant, clunky desktop” instead of a smart phone or Toughbook. Today, even the poor kids have Playstation and cell phones, and intrinsically understand electronic menus and text messaging. The generation is more tech savvy, and the tech is simpler.
  • The argument of late technology adopters is usually predicated on the idea that they have a CHOICE as to whether the new technology impacts their business. If history is any guide, you can either adopt major technology shifts or wait to see what your competitors will do with the technology. If this is still a question in your mind, why don’t you ask the music industry what it’s like to deny the inevitable.

As such, Competitive Futures is bullish on the long-term impact of social media. It seems inevitable for a host of technological and sociological reasons.  Pause for a moment to consider its impact on your customers and your internal management.

A video compression standards war

Friday, 05 February 2010 20:37 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Yes, it sounds dorky, but these are the weak signals that portend the coming revolution in telepresence.

Will h.264 prevail? What about Ogg Theora? This may seem like a strange debate for anyone not deeply involved in technology analysis for enterprise-quality video, but consider Cisco’s recent purchase of Tandberg, Logitech’s purchase of strange bedfellow LifeSize – there is a clear megatrend for video becoming a mission-critical technology for running businesses and keeping in touch with friends.

But many chess pieces are about to be moved. Check it out.

Classic futurist bait: digital androids

Monday, 16 November 2009 14:30 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

The future of video conferencing: having a physical representation of you in a room, a mannequin with your face digitally projected onto it.

Creepy? Uh, yes, that’s a word that comes to mind. But people in a few years may look for all kinds of ways to enhance long-distance communications, and this may not be as disturbing.

In the meantime, it’s an interesting technology in a phase of rapid growth.

Disruptive Innovation and the Bankruptcy of Ritz Camera

Monday, 13 July 2009 14:19 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

I was just surfing SlideShare for some competitive intelligence – always a great source of left-of-center information, unusual sources, and stuff that never gets published. I cam across a provocatively titled slideshow about how digital imaging killed the corner camera shop. Even though the market exploded, the model shifted to one where there was no margin for customer service of any sort.

Food for thought for this Monday.

Disruptive Innovation And The Bankruptcy Of Ritz Camera
View more documents from Chris Sandström.

Google Chrome OS: The last few 20th century business models break down

Wednesday, 08 July 2009 14:07 Written by Eric Garland 8 Comments

So Google is coming out with its own operating system, which shouldn’t really surprise anyone. It will likely be lightweight, simple, cool and functional like pretty much everything they do. And also evident is the fact that Microsoft should now be hyperventilating, as this development takes direct aim at its aging business model while also pointing at the future of computing.chrome

Google is now threatening to bust the trust owned by the world’s richest man. You may remember a fantatastic, precient essay by Neal Stephenson entitled “In the Beginning Was the Command Line,” in which the author of Cryptonomicon and Snow Crash pointed out the near absurdity that the world’s wealthiest businessman made his money selling operating systems, as opposed to chemicals or railroads or minerals or something real and industrial. The untold riches in the production of user interfaces really did seem surreal at the time.

If you think about it, though, their business model was strikingly industrial in the Henry Ford, mass market vein. In the Golden Age of Microsoft, computers all hungered for standardization and interoperability if they were to function as something other than an electric paper weight. Whoever could forge that infrastructure could make stupid amounts of money – not unlike the railroad or the telephone. Not only did the infrastructure model pay off for Microsoft, they also harnessed Henry Ford’s mass production model, shipping out millions of individual boxes of “software” to individual users about the globe. It “scaled up” but at massive profit to the manufacturer.

And now you can officially say the 20th century is over. Even Microsoft, a digital age company, has succumbed to the new business models of the future. Google’s new operating system is harnessing all the aspects of the next generation business model. Google OS will be free, perfect for a variety of small, light devices intended to access the internet and cloud-based services. It’s not that you won’t be able to run Microsoft’s operating system and software tools – it’s just that they will no longer be the only game in town. Their competition will need to come from innovation, customization, and service rather than size, exclusivity, and scarcity that stems from limited technologies.

Record companies have learned this the hard way.

Newspapers are learning this the hard way.

Telecom is learning this the hard way.

No doubt, large and unwieldy, Microsoft will learn it the hard way as well.

Now…what about your industry? What will it need to learn? And will you be proactive, or will you be happier learning it the hard way?

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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