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Category: Globalization

Spanish intelligence services: financial crisis is a conspiracy

Monday, 15 February 2010 15:22 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Usually, it’s the job of tin-pot dictators like Chavez and Ahmedinejad to trot out their intelligence services and declare that the world is out to get them.

But when the Spanish intelligence service says the country is under attack from speculators in a clear conspiracy, it’s a sign of something deeply interesting. First, it’s a telltale sign that people high in the Spanish government are concerned that greater instability is on the way from the sovereign debt crisis, and they are attempting to control the narrative.

For those of us practicing future intelligence, this is a call for us to examine the broader political trends at play. Most views of the future take the Euroland to be a stable economic entity for all scenarios. Generally, a meltdown of the single currency and a brushfire war between Belgium and Portugal are considered far out.  At the very least, most people consider the continued operation of the EU to be a given – after all, it has resulted in one of the most successful, peaceful, prosperous times in the history of the continent, especially after the tumult of the early 20th century.

Still, it may be that the success of Euroland has required all countries to play a part for which they are ill-suited. Spain still has 20% unemployment. Greece’s debt is out of control. In the days before the single currency, each country would have been free to fail, unsupported by the largesse of France and Germany. Today, they have been supported through their use of a stable, global reserve currency. Like so much, this may be borrowed equity, and borrowed time.

Imagine a future for your business, and indeed your nation, in a world where Europe re-fragments. It may be less far-out than previously thought.

Gregor Macdonald on the future of energy, economics, and society

Tuesday, 02 February 2010 12:46 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

For those of you who know Gregor MacDonald, you know you’re in for a treat with this podcast- a full hour of some of Gregor’s latest forecasts on energy, economics and society, insights you simply won’t get anywhere else.

For those of you who haven’t discovered Gregor yet, he is one of the top energy analysts in the world, and in our minds, one of the top analysts of anything, period.

This podcast covers sweeping ground:

  • Why we’re at peak automobiles
  • The end of cheap oil
  • Coal’s role in the development of the world economy
  • The return to human capital and small towns
  • Why waterways are the future
  • Our current period of “late phase economic decadence
  • Why PAKISTAN holds the key to the Copenhagen Protocol

Crazier still, we could have spend ANOTHER hour talking to him and still not exhausted him of insight.

Enjoy.

Competitive Futures Podcast with Gregor Macdonald Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Douglas Rushkoff on the future of value creation- why the web broke everything (but it’s a good thing)

Saturday, 18 April 2009 08:15 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

I am glad to see Douglas Ruskoff weigh in on our current situation. He’s a fantastic thinker, humanistic and often contrarian, the author of many books including the recent Get Back in the Box: Innovation from the Inside Out, which is about the foolishness of senseless innovation. If I read Rushkoff correctly, he sees economics as a distinctly human, connected enterprise, and the absolute opposite of where our commercial leadership has taken us.

He presents some major, major ideas:

  • The recent goal of business has been to make every company a holding company, one whose purpose is the acquisition and/or management of debt as opposed to a group of competent people who do things for other people
  • People at all levels have become more interested in the perceived value of assets (homes, shares of companies, CDOs) than the actual value that they might ever produce
  • Most of these ideas are supporting people who may not even be in the system – long-gone investors, maybe even dead guys
  • The monetary system is not about encouraging trade, but often preventing trade
  • The American Revolution came about because England forbid people from providing each other with services
  • LOCAL CURRENCIES used to be very popular and could be again
  • We were probably better off economically in the Late Middle Ages (the Black Death notwithstanding)

We need to revisit our total concept of value creation. It’s great that Rushkoff is lending a hand.

The volcanic disruption of local currencies

Tuesday, 07 April 2009 04:56 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

This article from USA TODAY should be on its front page in all red letters.

A small but growing number of cash-strapped communities are printing their own money.

Borrowing from a Depression-era idea, they are aiming to help consumers make ends meet and support struggling local businesses.

The systems generally work like this: Businesses and individuals form a network to print currency. Shoppers buy it at a discount — say, 95 cents for $1 value — and spend the full value at stores that accept the currency.

Workers with dwindling wages are paying for groceries, yoga classes and fuel with Detroit Cheers, Ithaca Hours in New York, Plenty in North Carolina or BerkShares in Massachusetts.

detroitcurrencyIt is not possible to overestimate this disruptive nature of this trend.

This has nothing to do with a drycleaner exchanging his services for some computer repair. This is about the nation-state shifting in importance back to the city-state, or at most the regional economy. The economic vitality that normally comes from nations is being choked by the decadence of bankrupt financiers and the inaction of feckless bureaucrats. In response, the people who actually provide the wealth of nations are walking away.

This is a statement to Messieurs Obama, Sarkozy, Brown, Hu et al. that if you can’t make a functioning international currency system, we will not take part. The printing of local currency is the sign of a revolution brewing – a bloodless revolution that is far more radical.

Watch this trend very closely. If it continues, it will change the logic of globalization for the next decade or more.

Globalization’s cheerleaders – how can you still be right?

Monday, 02 March 2009 14:17 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

fergusonprofileNiall Ferguson is without question one of the great public intellects of the world. His books on empire, war, currency, and civilization show an incredible range and depth of perspective in the man. I don’t agree with all of his ideas, but they must be considered. He has been especially prolific on world finance these days. His book The Ascent of Money is a best-seller, and has been made into a great television program as well.

In preparation for my next book, and in consideration of the incredible change unfolding daily, I am returning through the writings of many of the propronents of this Gordian knot of failure in which we find ourselves. A couple days ago, I picked a copy of Why Globalization Works, a 2004 book by Financial Times economic correspondant Martin Wolf. The author’s goal is to give an impassioned defense of global free-trade capitalism, showing the benefit to all involved, demonstrating the suffering of those who do not participate, and silencing definitively those who oppose it. The enemy to trade and progress, it seems, are misguided liberal optimists who imagine some vague and muddy local economy, one which the author sneers at on virtually every page.

However, what is immediate evident about the work is the highly detailed use of statistics on most every page, a really elegant technocratic argument that shows the plus-side of global free trade. Here’s where our friend Mr Ferguson comes in:

“No one has summarised more coherently the recent, voluminous research… Elegantly and persuasively, Wolf marshals the facts.” Niall Ferguson, Sunday Telegraph

I’m assuming here that Ferguson put his name on the front of the dustjacket because he believed in the books central argument – that communists in favor of centrally-planned economies are wrong, and free trade is right and holy. My problem is that my head has been filled with this screeching question while reading it: Who in the hell is still arguing for centrally-planned Soviet economies?

Many of the arguments about globalization and free trade were that speculative, uncontrolled global financial schemes were quite dangerous – and lo, behold, they are. Many of the arguments were that the only organizations able to straddle nation-states were corporations, groups not necessarily designed to make conservative fiscal policy decisions, and holy Moses, they aren’t. The advocates of runaway global finance ignored their critics and derided them as throwback socialist cranks, even those critics who believed in free trade, but had issues with the uncontrollable howling chaos of it all.

Perhaps I’m being unfair to Mr Ferguson, who seems to understand better than most what is happening to us. But media seems to be rife with people who six months ago told us Bear Stearns was fine and stocks were a great buy.

I would just like some of the people who cheerled the management of this system to come clean and pause for a moment to explain what they didn’t understand about globalization before setting themselves up as experts in the “next economy.”

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This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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