Is empire cyclical, doomed to birth, consummation, establishment, decline and desolation? Or are there other futures for large regimes? Can large complex systems create new kinds of future, or are the winds of fate far too strong? Can we predict decline, change it, improve things, create order out of chaos?
Nobody is better at exploring the large questions than Niall Ferguson. This lecture is long and well-considered, not a candidate for viral videohood. Given the subject, that is perfect.
While the media was arguing about whether Ben Bernanke knows what he’s talking about, while America was discussing the meaning of “double dip” recession, or hockey stick recession, or V-neck, or crew cut, or whatever, while Sarah Palin’s daughter got back with Levi or didn’t because he’s maybe got another girl pregnant or maybe she set it up to sell books or not - something real and important was happening. As usual, Gregor MacDonald was on top of it:
“Russia has now surpassed Saudi Arabia to become the number one oil producer in the world. This is not an event that happened last month, either. The leap forward emerged as far back as 18 months ago, in October of 2008.”
It is usually a source of alarm when the Russians start taking the upper hand in things, but you would never know it by listening to American media, which is still in a tizzy over whether any major secrets were spilled by the Wikileaks documents showing us that Afghanistan is a tricky place to govern.
Incidentally, I hear that Wikileaks may come out next week with a chilling set of leak documents showing that fire is hot, puppies are cute, and that the trend for the sun setting in the west may continue.
Meanwhile, back in the rest of the evolving world:
It’s clear that Saudi Arabia has been a very different kind of oil producer than Russia, in the past ten years. I would encourage readers to think about, in particular, the period starting in late 2005 through late 2007 when against a backdrop of steadily increasing prices Saudi Arabia production fell by nearly a million barrels per day.
Obviously a major power shift will be going on as a result of this development. The priorities of the Middle East could change rapidly if the sheiks perceive a permanent contraction, and you can read history if you want to see what the Russians tend to do with significant power over their neighbors.
Paul Denlinger, a very astute observer of U.S.-China business relations has a fascinating piece up at China Vortex discussing two very different notions of freedom of information that are colliding soon.
One view, ostensibly “American,” is being espoused by Google, Facebook, and their respective CEOs. In short, this view is the early Internet mantra of “Information Wants to Be Free.” Opposing them is the Chinese government, which obviously believes that government should play a role deciding which information goes where in a society.
Read Denlinger’s analysis and decide whether the issue of “information sovereignty” and “individual rights” are as clear as you might think. It just goes to show the incredible role culture needs to play in all of our analyses of the market.
While economic policy and national politics have always been a couple, sometimes the relationship can be strained by the injection of partisanship. The current crisis requires insight into the actual issues to make policy suggestions. The United States is running a risk by having its economics so colored by bitter partisan divisions, as this is one area where there needs to be solidarity.
In a thought provoking GPS episode, Fareed Zakaria interviews two very different schools of thought on the actions necessary. His conclusions are that we must meet in the middle of the political agendas and look at the economic possibilities. Essentially, his view is that the U.S. government needs to spend more now while also reviewing entitlement programs to make sure each dollar is spent in the most efficient manner – a classic centrist approach.
It is always a risk for a country when political in-fighting colors international economic policy. That is true for Greece, Spain, China, Iceland, and, of course, the United States.
My latest interview with Pam Atherton of A Closer Look Radio, covering the superconnection between peak oil, European fiscal crises, local economics, and even the iPad. It’s all about institutions in transition and what you will do to assure your future success.