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Category: Energy

The Green Skeptic: Scott Edward Anderson’s rational approach to cleantech

Monday, 29 November 2010 17:04 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

With a philosophy straight from the European Enlightenment and with credentials from the heart of the environmental movement, Scott Edward Anderson is a rare voice amongst the crowd of green economy hypesters and cynics. In a style that strongly recalls our own approach to holistic, data-based, rational analysis of the future, Scott advises companies, governments and investors on how to think about cleantech with all the complexity and cold logic that it deserves.

In this edition of the Competitive Futures Podcast, Scott shoots a hole in most of the “green” technologies that are supposed to save us, tells us why China is rapidly outpacing the West on cleantech investments, and why fixing 100 year old buildings is just as important as adopting brand new, shiny silver, nanotech-injected technology when it comes to the long-term future of our energy-efficient, green and clean 21st century economy.

Chris Nelder: Peak oil and the future of corn flakes, cities, and trips to Paris

Wednesday, 03 November 2010 08:52 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Chris Nelder is the author of Profit from the Peak, Investing in Alternative Energy, and the editor of www.getrealist.com. He is one of the world’s experts on the limits of the world’s oil supply, and here he has some major forecasts that all leaders should consider carefully.

  • We already hit peak oil in 2004. The era of cheap oil is ending every day.
  • Like corn flakes? Soon they won’t make economic sense.
  • Air travel as we know it we be for the rich after 2015.
  • Cities need to have a plan to transition back from suburbanization
  • Investors need to forget fiat assets and get into hard goods for the transition.

Paul Denlinger: China’s Strategic Future

Wednesday, 11 August 2010 17:40 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

In this episode of the Competitive Futures Podcast, we interview Paul Denlinger of China Vortex, an author, investor, and executive advisor who specializes in U.S. – China commercial activity. He’s a rare bird indeed, completely fluent in Mandarin and English and totally familiar with the executive leadership mentality of both countries. In this episode, he gives the audience some forecasts about China that you (unfortunately) just won’t be hearing in other media:

  • The crash of 2008 shook China’s faith in the U.S. and sent their strategy away from engagement to the creation of a massive Chinese middle class they hope to drive the world economy
  • China will ramp their use of coal significantly on the way to dominating the world market for renewable energy
  • The markets for many raw materials are being cornered by China today and may leave other countries in the lurch if they don’t act soon

All of this, plus invaluable insight about how the Chinese mentality on the future differs considerably from that in the West.

We hope you enjoy listening to this interview as much as we did making it.

Russia is the new energy power player while America barbecues

Wednesday, 04 August 2010 16:46 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

While the media was arguing about whether Ben Bernanke knows what he’s talking about, while America was discussing the meaning of “double dip” recession, or hockey stick recession, or V-neck, or crew cut, or whatever, while Sarah Palin’s daughter got back with Levi or didn’t because he’s maybe got another girl pregnant or maybe she set it up to sell books or not -  something real and important was happening. As usual, Gregor MacDonald was on top of it:

“Russia has now surpassed Saudi Arabia to become the number one oil producer in the world. This is not an event that happened last month, either. The leap forward emerged as far back as 18 months ago, in October of 2008.”

It is usually a source of alarm when the Russians start taking the upper hand in things, but you would never know it by listening to American media, which is still in a tizzy over whether any major secrets were spilled by the Wikileaks documents showing us that Afghanistan is a tricky place to govern.

Incidentally, I hear that Wikileaks may come out next week with a chilling set of leak documents showing that fire is hot, puppies are cute, and that the trend for the sun setting in the west may continue.

Meanwhile, back in the rest of the evolving world:

It’s clear that Saudi Arabia has been a very different kind of oil producer than Russia, in the past ten years. I would encourage readers to think about, in particular, the period starting in late 2005 through late 2007 when against a backdrop of steadily increasing prices Saudi Arabia production fell by nearly a million barrels per day.

Obviously a major power shift will be going on as a result of this development. The priorities of the Middle East could change rapidly if the sheiks perceive a permanent contraction, and you can read history if you want to see what the Russians tend to do with significant power over their neighbors.

The farce of energy-independent politics

Thursday, 17 June 2010 19:40 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Jon Stewart slays the past eight presidents for platitudes about moving past foreign oil. Lest you think the current president is serious, ask yourself how his administration reconciles his multi-billion dollar national investment in car companies and highways while also pushing the urgency of getting away from oil.

Also, make sure you stay with this video until the end which details the great number of fantastical technologies that will somehow replace the most dense, transportable, efficient form of energy we have ever discovered. And note how these futurist presidents keep kicking the can of energy independence up the road from 1980 to 1985, 2000, 2010, 2025, 2300, the year 5000.

Understanding the future is about not being glib about the difficulty of the challenges that face us, and yet still moving forward.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
An Energy-Independent Future
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Tea Party

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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