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Category: education

Alison Wolf: Education does NOT equal economic growth

Wednesday, 29 June 2011 13:51 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Further to our research on the end of the education bubble, we recommend this detailed interview with Professor Alison Wolf, author of Does Education Matter? Myths About Education and Economic Growth. She goes headlong against the orthodoxy of educational institutions, challenging the “great secular faith of our age” that increasing the number of people with educational credentials actually increases economic growth.

This line of inquiry flies in the face of every political speech of the last fifty years and rips to shreds many of the “knowledge worker/creative class” strategies of recent economic development ideas. This is an interesting polemic that accompanies the structural trend analysis that shows how much debt we are incurring to continue a broken system.

Student loans outpace credit cards in the United States

Tuesday, 12 April 2011 10:04 Written by Eric Garland 3 Comments

From the New York Times, college students are graduating with increasing amounts of debt, a sum that totals more than Americans are spending on credit cards for the first time.

American labor policy has been to increase the number of college-educated workers as much as possible since the end of the Second World War. Still, the cost of education has been outpacing wages by a factor of 2.5 since 1980. Given the amount of the cost that is borne by student loans, this number is deceptive as to its real impact. The actual amount of wealth spent on education will also have to include interest payments as well.

We believe that there has been a critical error in policy, such that the American government has equated credentials with critical skills. The American economy could end up with millions of college-graduates with credentials on which they are paying interest, but without the skills required by the emerging world economy.

Youth unemployment, the root of disruption

Tuesday, 14 December 2010 17:45 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

Our educational and economic institutions of the future are more likely to be disrupted in the future by the millions of young people around the world unable to find meaningful employment in a timely fashion. After all, people are much less likely to see institutions as infallible when they weren’t very helpful.

José Manuel Salazar, Executive Director of the International Labor Organization reports that youth unemployment around the world is between 2.5 and 3.0 times higher than those of older, more experienced adults. He gives a variety of reasons, from lack of financial resources to move for work, to the fact that employers in times of strife can choose from more experienced talent.

This trend meets with another trend as we go forward, the increase of the cost of education. In the United States, four-year universities have increased in price between three and four times in real, inflation-adjusted dollars, within 30 years. That means young people coming out with more debt than ever, needing real employment in their fields making good money as soon as possible to begin to offload the heavy yoke of that obligation.

Those young people need work more than ever and aren’t finding it. Why then will they continue to believe that $50,000 per year universities are necessarily the way to success? How many of them are going to be faced with modern indentured servitude, unable to walk away from those debts no matter what the outcome?

The system is frontloading too much risk onto the youth of the industrialized world, and that risk is not resulting in increased returns as it might in other types of investment. Who will blame them if they can imagine a system of learning and work that does not involve a multi-billion dollar educational-financial cartel?

Building minds for the future

Monday, 18 October 2010 09:47 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

There has been increasing discussion of late about the relative failure of United States schools to produce people ready for the competition of the future. In fact, many citizens, politicians and young people are looking even deeper to see that the schools produce a certain degree of failure that almost seems intentional.

The amazing Sir Ken Robinson has been at the vanguard of this issue for some time, realizing early that our entire model needs to be redesigned. Watch this beautiful animation of his vision.

Giant tablet computers for every kid

Friday, 04 June 2010 10:48 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

Tell me that when every kid has one of these that education won’t change forever.

Also, let me know how colleges will keep charging $1000 per semester for books when no printing is required.

This is the stuff that makes you say, “Awesome, I think the future just arrived.”

Kno Movie from Kno, Inc. on Vimeo.

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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