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Category: Economic Development

Competition expert Clayton Christensen worries for the future of America

Thursday, 30 June 2011 11:48 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

America’s two reigning experts in competitive strategy, Clayton Christensen and Michael Porter have both come on record to state their worry about the lack of competitive position in the United States.

In this thoughtful video, Christensen talks about the connection between overly-strict immigration policies and the future of innovation in America. The United States, in its zeal to restrict foreign access to America for national security, is also repelling the entrepreneurs who would create new jobs.

Alison Wolf: Education does NOT equal economic growth

Wednesday, 29 June 2011 13:51 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Further to our research on the end of the education bubble, we recommend this detailed interview with Professor Alison Wolf, author of Does Education Matter? Myths About Education and Economic Growth. She goes headlong against the orthodoxy of educational institutions, challenging the “great secular faith of our age” that increasing the number of people with educational credentials actually increases economic growth.

This line of inquiry flies in the face of every political speech of the last fifty years and rips to shreds many of the “knowledge worker/creative class” strategies of recent economic development ideas. This is an interesting polemic that accompanies the structural trend analysis that shows how much debt we are incurring to continue a broken system.

Long-term strategies: China dominating innovation while U.S. fields armies

Thursday, 03 February 2011 11:02 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Mish’s Global Economic Analysis has a wonderfully-juxtaposed view of two countries’ long-term economic strategies. He lays in stark terms, the implications of China’s current drive toward “indigenous innovation” as the next wave of its development strategy, versus the United States’ long-term obligations to the two nation-states currently occupied by its military.

Indigenous innovation is a massive and complicated plan to turn the Chinese economy into a technology powerhouse by 2020 and a global leader by 2050. The landmark document that launched the campaign carries the bureaucratic title “The National Medium- and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Science and Technology (2006-2020)” (now known in the West as the MLP). Bland as the title may be, the MLP describes itself as the “grand blueprint of science and technology development” to bring about the “great renaissance of the Chinese nation.”

If you care about the global economic future whatsoever and if you only read one document this year, this one should be it.

Meanwhile, where is the United States’ attention going? Barack Obama’s speech the other night said we are going to win the future through all pulling together and using all kinds of clean energy and competing. But while all that great stuff comes to pass, Mish points out that the United States is still stuck fielding armies in 140 countries. This isn’t a condemnation of such a military strategy, it’s just a question: Since China isn’t stuck doing things like this, are they free to pursue other strategy and execute them well?

What will America do for a living?

Thursday, 30 December 2010 09:17 Written by Eric Garland 5 Comments

There is a great post today on Mish’s blog about the future of job growth in the United States. He’s at odds with Calculated Risk blog on the forecasts for employment in America.

CR forecasts a growth in between two million and three million jobs in the United States in 2011 alone.

Employment forecasts for 2011

Calculated Risk takes the time to point out that this is not necessarily going to be seen as a tremendous recovery:

With over 15 million unemployed workers – and 6.3 million unemployed for more than 26 weeks – adding 2.4 million private sector jobs will not seem like much of job recovery for many Americans. Hopefully I’m too pessimistic.

Mish is skeptical, unable to see what exactly will drive this growth. This chart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that he cites shows how manufacturing jobs have been declining steadily for a decade, in both recession and boom.

Manufacturing jobs from 2000 to 2010

We have been discussing how America, as the world’s largest economy, is in a transition to a “Knowledge Economy.” Clearly we are seeing the decline in jobs that involve actually manufacturing things. Supposedly, we are supposed to move as a nation toward intellectual property law and management innovation consulting and branding. Yet those jobs are not filling the losses from other types of non-farm labor.

Is the Knowledge Economy still a good term for what is happening? What will America do for a living?

Storm Cunningham: Revitalize the world for a living

Saturday, 11 December 2010 15:54 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

For a decade, our friend and colleague Storm Cunningham has been ahead of the curve on all things green and sustainable – so far ahead, in fact, that his work in restoration and revitalization almost has nothing to do with those overused marketing tropes. Storm’s work declares that if you want a better, healthier, more prosperous world, you don’t sustain what already doesn’t work, you restore places and make them vital. You don’t need to achieve elaborate engineering and magical green algae juice jetfuel to make the world a better place – just start by improving things, right where you, in all ways ecological, economic and social. This can be fixing up houses, improving school systems, restoring aquifers to being healthy parts of the ecosystem – anything that is the opposite of the entropy that plagues our post-industrial world.

In this talk for TedxMidatlantic, Storm has four huge, important messages for the future:

  • Sustainable development is at least 200 years too late.
  • We, and future generations, can make the world healthier, wealthier and more livable, for a living.
  • The process of revitalizing our ecosystems and communities is finally becoming a rigorous discipline with the proper tools and education.
  • Restoring the world can also restore peace.

Yup, huge messages. When you’re done with this talk don’t forget to pick up copies of Storm’s two great, in depth books on this emerging discipline The Restoration Economy and reWealth.

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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