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Category: Business

Corporate profits: business-as-usual in America, with a twist

Monday, 25 April 2011 10:39 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

This chart says some interesting things about the post-2008 business world in America. Specifically, it screams that if you are involved in business, the world probably looks very different than it does if you are a teacher, a carpenter, a senior depending on fixed income, or a new grad looking for work.

Over the past 30 years, there have been ups and downs, but if you are a publicly traded large company, you can definitely expect more than five percent return on your capital, and often you can expect much more than the average investor. But what really interests us is that in the post-2008 world of crazy gloom and doom and bailouts – the profit margins look like we’re in a golden age.

Corporate profit trendsAsk the average American, the consumer on whom this success is supposedly based: Are we in a golden age? Does it feel like we’re in a golden age?

Most systems depend on there being a shared sense of meaning. Post-War American success was shared by a broad range of people on the socio-economic spectrum, many of them recent immigrants. The notion of free markets succeeding over a communist enemy provided a certain cohesion to the narrative of what was happening. Are we getting richer? Well, we have a better system and we’re all prospering.

What does this system say about us? Does it make sense? Does it speak to a variety of people?

Peak conglomeration?

Friday, 14 January 2011 09:30 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

One of the most important trends in corporate governance and business strategy in the last decade has been the feverish drive toward conglomeration. Banking, telecom, heavy industry, energy, pharmaceuticals, and funeral homes have been on the path of combining into ever large corporate entities. This has a broad reaching impact for everybody – workers, other companies, governments, and the investors who provide public capital.

There’s a fascinating piece from CNBC, which features some insight from Reformed Broker’s Josh Brown. It seems that for years, the business media has accepted that giantness is always a great strategic move. Here, there is some real discussion (!) about whether it makes sense to have a single corporate culture attempting to compete intelligently in a broad variety of businesses.

Brown’s point is cogent – sometimes conglomeration a good idea (Berkshire Hathaway) and sometimes…it’s just a whole lot of people with the same letterhead.

The future is watching the Cosby Show and Cheers

Thursday, 13 January 2011 10:57 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Back in the ancient days of, say, 1996 – back when we were erecting large stone monoliths in honor of the various tree gods in exchange for their mercy during the winter months – there was this strange superstition that one should pay authors and musicians and filmmakers for individual copies of their work. You got to “own” these copies and you were able to listen or read or watch anytime you wanted. Some people even got rich from this business of selling copies of artistic work.

Bizarre, isn’t it?

Now we have a host of digital music services that offer unlimited music for fractions of a penny per listen. But even stranger, we now even have things like Grooveshark which work like the original, gangster, Wild West, lawless version of filesharing circa 2000 – only prettier and easier to use. I’m listening to it now. It is positively baffling how well it works and how free it is.

We have entered into an age like no other, in which a human being born today will essentially have unlimited entertainment from the artistic output of a number of centuries available anywhere he/she goes, and for free.

Future generations will be able to spend a year watching situation comedies from the year 1985 – in real time – commercials and all – available for free in some far off Burbank computer server. Next year, do you want to do nothing but listen to Dixieland jazz and Glenn Miller-era swing? No reason not to. When you have finished, you can read every book published in Scotland in 1820 while listening to Creedence Clearwater Revival. Don’t forget to tune in for our free streaming marathon of Greek and Albanian soap operas! Followed by 2000 straight hours of the Manga Channel, a specially curated webzone for people who love extreme tentacle-centered Japanimation.

And not a dollar will change hands.

Let the implications of that development sink in. It means a lot for how future generations will act.

Is the West radically misunderstanding the future of business?

Friday, 15 October 2010 13:46 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

Forget what we have to say on the subject, take it from the CEO of financial giant HSBC: The world’s economy is shifting with terrible swiftness toward China and India. Now, you’ve heard that opinion expressed a million times – but what Michael Geoghegan is saying is that this is NOT an incremental transition, as many leaders still perceive it.

We still meet executives who believe that a global outlook is a luxury – nice if you have one, but you can live without it. It is hard to imagine understanding the message presented here and persisting in that worldview.

Rupture! from Michel Cartier

Wednesday, 31 March 2010 12:06 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

I have no idea how I managed to miss this incredible video for so long:

Are You Ready for the 21st Century ? from Michel Cartier on Vimeo.

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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