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Category: business models

Pam Atherton: Don’t build a large audience! and other observations on the future of the media

Monday, 06 December 2010 14:34 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Pam Atherton is one of our favorite human beings here at Competitive Futures. She talks for a living. She knows Weird Al Yankovic. She lives in New Mexico, an inherently cool place to be. And she knows a ton about the past and future of radio. Pam is the host of a wonderful, eclectic radio program entitled A Closer Look Radio. She has had me on as a guest regularly since the release of Future Inc, and as punishment, I have insisted on interviewing HER about where the media is going in the next twenty years.

Her insights on future trends in media are, as expected, fantastic, not to mention useful for business people, intelligence analysts, and everybody else:

  • We’re exiting the era of absolutely everybody producing media and thinking it’s of equal quality. Whether it sounds elitist or not, Andrew Keen is right.
  • Why podcasts and long-form journalism will return intellectual depth to the media ecosystem.
  • Market research is usually wrong, and sends the media professionals in the wrong direction when creating content.
  • As counterintuitive as it sounds, the era of the big audience is over – business people should cultivate small, committed audiences with which they have actual engagement.

Between Google’s Grab for Groupon and Facebook Marketplace – what is the future of small retail?

Wednesday, 01 December 2010 15:08 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Six billion dollars seems like a lot to pay for a website that gives out coupons and whose assets may not be much more than a brand presence, some code, and a few databases. Yet that seems exactly what Google plans to do.

Add to this the emergence of Facebook Marketplace, which may or may not be a genius application, but it will have at least 500 million potential customers.

According to Doug Stephens, our favorite retail futurist, if you are smaller than Google, Facebook, or Walmart your choices are pretty limited at this point. Not that all hope is lost.

Here is Doug’s very simple advice on how to deal with this megatrend:

Any specialty retail business that stands on selection, price or convenience as its point of competitive differentiation will be toast… if not today then very soon.

Between Amazon, Facebook Marketplace, EBay ,Google Boutiques, Wal Mart and a host of others, the price, convenience and selection markets are cornered.  And they’re already scaled beyond the point where you could ever dream of catching up so throw away any notions you have about trying.  It’s a fight you can’t win.  And frankly if you think you’re winning at it, you’re losing.

Here’s what’s left for you to compete on – service, shopping experience and product quality.  Choose at least one of these and dominate in it.

But by dominate, I don’t just mean be good at it.

I mean be extraordinary.  Be remarkable to the point where you become famous for it. Hire it.  Train it.  Instil it in your people and reward them when they do it.  Communicate it at every marketing touch point.  Get so good at it other businesses come to you to learn how to do it.  Treat it like a religion.  Write a book on it.  Be so ridiculously excellent at it that no competitor would bother trying to beat you at it.  Put it on a T-shirt.  Be it! Own it! Tweet it! Crush it! Live it!

A positive reaction to a megatrend – words to live by.

Facebook will be worse than an abandoned shopping mall

Tuesday, 25 May 2010 10:09 Written by Eric Garland 4 Comments

Facebook will be worse than an abandoned shopping mall, and Twitter is doomed – or so sayeth my favorite comic, Patton Oswalt. (While it may seem to strange to cite standup comics for business insight, I submit that there’s nothing more comical than most of mainstream business television right now.) As such, I thought that his announcement that he is joining Twitter contained some cutting analysis on the future of social networks and the stability of their business models in an era of ultra-easy product substitution:

So, I’m joining Twitter this Saturday.

And, eventually, whatever replaces it.

I was on Friendster. It collapsed. I jumped on MySpace, and now it’s pretty much an abandoned shopping mall. I still get about 30 Friend Requests and 15 messages in my Inbox every day, but they’re all mailing list bullshit for bands I’ll never listen to, or porno-bots promoting some young Eurasian hottie. Even the comments are clearly all bot-generated. An abandoned mall still had trash, heating and cleaning services drop by, I guess.

I’ll still update my calendar and galleries here, but that’ll be about it.

Don’t feel bad, MySpace. Facebook is also, clearly, on the way out. Constant spam ads, weird privacy wormholes — yuck. Any social networking site, like a great punk band or TV show, has entropy and collapse built into its biography.

Remember how fun Friendster was for those three or four months?

His scenarios, however, are my favorite:

And Twitter will collapse, too. What will replace it? Here are my 3 predictions:

BlipBlap: Basically Twitter, but only 17 characters allowed, and no vowels. Xclnt!

Wh1ff: The first-ever “scent site” — you update your status from an “odor board” of 170 different scents. “(Snnnnnnfff) Patton had chili for lunch and he’s somewhere humid.”

DanzaQuip: Every single status update on this site is first sent to Tony Danza’s personal e-mail. He then decides which ones to post, and is the only one who can respond or comment. (*This site will replace the U.S. Post Office in 2027)

Really, is it any stranger than a prediction that 400 million people would voluntarily post embarrassing photos online in an ultra-complex social web of their coworkers and former elementary school classmates?

iPad: does anyone need another computer?

Thursday, 01 April 2010 09:15 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

I answered that question in the negative out of pure instinct, but when you hear that Lulu is already signed on for a publishing distribution deal for iPad, you think – oh yeah, once again Apple doesn’t make devices, they make new business models. And exceedingly few companies are comfortable in that game.

Andy Ihnatko at the Chicago Sun-Times is just flat -out ebullient, in way that transcends fanboy excitement:

In fact, after a week with the iPad, I’m suddenly wondering if any other company is as committed to invention as Apple. Has any other company ever demonstrated a restlessness to stray from the safe and proven, and actually invent things?

Good question: Is your company restlessly invented new things?

Rupture! from Michel Cartier

Wednesday, 31 March 2010 12:06 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

I have no idea how I managed to miss this incredible video for so long:

Are You Ready for the 21st Century ? from Michel Cartier on Vimeo.

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This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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