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Category: business development

Competition expert Clayton Christensen worries for the future of America

Thursday, 30 June 2011 11:48 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

America’s two reigning experts in competitive strategy, Clayton Christensen and Michael Porter have both come on record to state their worry about the lack of competitive position in the United States.

In this thoughtful video, Christensen talks about the connection between overly-strict immigration policies and the future of innovation in America. The United States, in its zeal to restrict foreign access to America for national security, is also repelling the entrepreneurs who would create new jobs.

What will America do for a living?

Thursday, 30 December 2010 09:17 Written by Eric Garland 5 Comments

There is a great post today on Mish’s blog about the future of job growth in the United States. He’s at odds with Calculated Risk blog on the forecasts for employment in America.

CR forecasts a growth in between two million and three million jobs in the United States in 2011 alone.

Employment forecasts for 2011

Calculated Risk takes the time to point out that this is not necessarily going to be seen as a tremendous recovery:

With over 15 million unemployed workers – and 6.3 million unemployed for more than 26 weeks – adding 2.4 million private sector jobs will not seem like much of job recovery for many Americans. Hopefully I’m too pessimistic.

Mish is skeptical, unable to see what exactly will drive this growth. This chart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that he cites shows how manufacturing jobs have been declining steadily for a decade, in both recession and boom.

Manufacturing jobs from 2000 to 2010

We have been discussing how America, as the world’s largest economy, is in a transition to a “Knowledge Economy.” Clearly we are seeing the decline in jobs that involve actually manufacturing things. Supposedly, we are supposed to move as a nation toward intellectual property law and management innovation consulting and branding. Yet those jobs are not filling the losses from other types of non-farm labor.

Is the Knowledge Economy still a good term for what is happening? What will America do for a living?

Gregor Macdonald on the future of energy, economics, and society

Tuesday, 02 February 2010 12:46 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

For those of you who know Gregor MacDonald, you know you’re in for a treat with this podcast- a full hour of some of Gregor’s latest forecasts on energy, economics and society, insights you simply won’t get anywhere else.

For those of you who haven’t discovered Gregor yet, he is one of the top energy analysts in the world, and in our minds, one of the top analysts of anything, period.

This podcast covers sweeping ground:

  • Why we’re at peak automobiles
  • The end of cheap oil
  • Coal’s role in the development of the world economy
  • The return to human capital and small towns
  • Why waterways are the future
  • Our current period of “late phase economic decadence
  • Why PAKISTAN holds the key to the Copenhagen Protocol

Crazier still, we could have spend ANOTHER hour talking to him and still not exhausted him of insight.

Enjoy.

Competitive Futures Podcast with Gregor Macdonald Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

2009: Collective disaster / 2010: Individual success

Sunday, 03 January 2010 16:59 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Psychologically, many are glad to have 2009 behind us. It is difficult for people to work in conditions where so much seems out of control, ready to collapse at any moment. The moment seems to have passed. The one facet of 2009 that was clear was the willingness, often at great long-term cost, for government policymakers to keep the status quo with our major institutions. For 2010 – 2020, we can use this political reality, and make more solid plans.

This is not to say that we think that everything is back to “normal.” Have a look at our strategic outlook last year on the major drivers of disruption; none of them are fundamentally different.

Disruption will continue to be the theme of 2010 -2020; those megatrends still hold. Still, the likely stability of 2010 is something you can use.

We have one lesson for clients about studying the future: Just because there is a crisis doesn’t make it a crisis for everyone. When you make solid strategies, disruption can become massive opportunity. In the past decade, the music industry has melted down. It is not a catastrophe for Apple, who launched billion-dollar devices that changed the landscape of media, and then followed up by becoming the world’s largest music retailer. The oil crisis of the 1970s took Shell to the top of the petrochemical industry. Look ahead, think differently, make bold decisions and catastrophe for some can mean success for you.

Perhaps last year many were attempting to avoid the collective catastrophe that comes when all of our institutions catch on fire at the same time. This year, choose your own success.

Slides from “Winning the Future” at the New York State Economic Development Council

Saturday, 23 May 2009 08:21 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

It has been a glorious week here on the East Coast of the United States, a welcome reprieve from the grey, damp and interminably depressing winter and spring we endured. I was afforded the wonderful opportunity to drive north, toward my homeland, into the lakes and farmlands of upstate New York, and all for the best of reasons. This past Wednesday I had the chance to speak before the annual meeting of the New York State Economic Development Council on major trends facing states like New York as they plan for their coming decades.

Then again, there are no other states like New York; they are historically, industrially, and culturally unlike any other province on Earth. Present at the birth of the United States, they include one of the world’s most important cities, formed the backbone of the twentieth-century industrial economy, gave rise to several world-class companies (IBM, Kodak, Corning), and most importantly, share a border with Vermont, the single best chunk of land in the world. (With apologies…kinda)

Their future is surely in flux. The financial debacle that has rocked the world happened within their borders and is dragging down their tax revenues as we speak. They seem to accept that the Gilded Age of financial bonus excess may dribble on for a few years, but that a new age of austerity is likely upon us. Their physical infrastructure is significant, but also aging and costly. Despite their world-class university system, young people are seeking opportunities in other lands.

Despite the hyperventilation of those who follow stock indexes as the ultimate measure of global health and happiness, my presentation focused on considerably more positive upside for the Empire State. One of my biggest themes of the year has been SMALL, SMART, and LOCAL. The centrally-controlled, centrally-screwed-up financial system is obscuring more opportunity than it is enabling. Communities are coming together, bartering, printing local currencies, starting new, low-cost social services, educating each other, and creating prosperity.

This is where New York is sitting pretty. The whole place is nothing but a series of communities, small, medium and large, connected by universities, railways, waterways, and interstates. The state could be a hothouse of new experiments in prosperity. Few places on Earth have the mix of agriculture, chemical industry, research, high tech, small retail, tourism, and finance that New York does. Few places boast HUNDREDS of universities.

New York is a state the size of Belgium with a long, proud history and incredible resources to tap. I hope they use the strength of those communities to build a bright future.

WINNING THE FUTURE: Understanding global trends in business and community development

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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