Category: automotive

General Motors’ new concept car for dense urbanization

Friday, 07 January 2011 10:23 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

General Motors EN-VThough General Motors has had a rough few years, what with bankruptcy, you couldn’t be blamed if you thought that the company was just trying to get through the short term. It may surprise you, then, to hear that the company was actually one of the world’s most reliable sponsors of foresight, constantly scanning science, tech, demographic and ecological trends to inform new products and practices.

The press release for the Electric Networked Vehicle, pictured here at the CES show in Las Vegas, sounds like it was penned directly by a futurist:

Shanghai – By 2030, urban areas will be home to more than 60 percent of the world’s 8 billion people.  This will put tremendous pressure on a public infrastructure that is already struggling to meet the growing demand for transportation and basic services.

General Motors and its strategic partner, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. Group (SAIC), share a common vision for addressing the need for personal mobility through a radical change in personal urban transportation.  They are exploring several solutions for tomorrow’s drivers.  Among the most promising is a new vehicle form called EN-V.

I look at it and think it taps two megatrends – urbanization and aging populations. You can see it equally comfortable to zip around downtown Ho Chi Min City or the adult retirement/entertainment community.

And cripes – LOOK AT IT. This is futurist bait!

Assuming a bright future – pensions drag down General Motors

Thursday, 08 April 2010 09:38 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

One of our more accurate predictions at the end of 2008 was the soon-to-be-discovered catastrophe of unfunded pensions. As 2010 develops, we see that many of the current hotspots in the ill-defined “financial crisis” are tied to this one issue of having overvalued the future at the expense of the present.

California is sitting on around $500 billion (!) in liability. The state of Illinois is short $78 billion for it’s pensions. Now, here comes The New General Motors, still losing billions after a taxpayer bailout. The Government Accountability Office has recently released a report about how pensions will likely drag the ailing manufacturer down starting in 2012 or so. (h/t to Megan McArdle at The Atlantic for quality analysis here – also, the comments section is a stitch)

What happens in 2012? The bulk of the Boomers start cashing in those defined-benefit pension plans, heading to the doctor’s more often, and generally turning 65 at the rate of 7000 per day. Aren’t forecasts useful? This is why we call it a megatrend – it will impact car companies, state governments, universities, national governments, baseball teams, travel agencies – everybody.

Nothing is more dangerous than a business decision based entirely on, “sunny, bright scenarios of fantastic success at 8% returns for all of our investors, forever!”

Low energy consumption is the new hotness

Wednesday, 07 April 2010 09:26 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Two events in Europe point to a significant industrial trend: Using lots of energy simply isn’t hip.

First, an experimental plane just launched from Switzerland without any fuel on board – the Solar Impulse.

Second, Daimler (having lost weight and colored its hair and bought a new wardrobe following its breakup with Chrysler) and Renault-Nissan signed an alliance in Brussels to make small, energy-efficient engines destined for a variety of innovative, small vehicles destined for city living.

Meanwhile, General Motors failed to find a buyer for Hummer, the symbol of energy-guzzling American military triumphalism.

None of this is “green” business – it’s purely in line with the emerging reality of energy scarcity.

The 2012 Pelosi GTxi SS/RT Sport Edition – Strategic Scenarios in a Time of Political Intervention

Wednesday, 10 June 2009 09:14 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

If you have a certain nostalgia for 1980s Soviet advertising, or if you’re interested in the current state of the semi-nationalized automobile industry, you’ll get a chuckle out of this “scenario,” an ad for the 2012 Pelosi GTxi SS/RT Sport.

It’s funny, and yes, it contains some fairly partisan political jabs. That kind of material is something I would studiously avoid in a professional context – especially this blog. That said, we’re not in ordinary times. I would say that the current level of government involvement now means that political analysis of industry developments is more important than ever.

As I have said previously, the government is no longer simply regulating industry or financing it through monetary policy – it is now managing companies with the taxpayers as stockholders who have a right to see their investments protected. This will necessarily require an analysis of politicians and their goals. This may mean our competitive analyses will lay bare political feelings in our own organizations. That was the risk of the U.S. Government’s bailout policies, a dramatically-increased politicization of the American – and global – business environment. And here we are.

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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