August Jackson: social network analysis for intelligence (part four of four)
by Eric Garland
The thrilling conclusion, in which we talk about social network analysis from a real-life perspective and why it represents a powerful holistic world view.
August Jackson: social network analysis for intelligence (part three of four)
by Eric Garland
August Jackson shares how studying the link between people, companies, and technologies makes social network analysis a very powerful strategic tool.
August Jackson: social media analysis for intelligence (part two of four)
by Eric Garland
August keeps on a roll, telling you how to run a network analysis yourself, how to pick good sources (not necessarily LinkedIn!) and how this type of thinking represents a more holistic way to see your markets.
August Jackson: social network analysis for intelligence – (part one of four)
by Eric Garland
Sure, your teenager may hear the word “social networks” and think of a great way to coordinate a social life. August Jackson, Competitive Intelligence and Strategy Professional, Tech Pundit and Social Software Evangelist working for Verizon, knows that social networks are the key to advanced competitive intelligence analysis and extremely relevant, accurate business forecasts.
In part one of this four part interview, August gives us the nearly fifty year background of this analytical discipline, how we can better understand competitors, partners and customers alike, and why you should NOT start with software but make your first attempts at this work just with your brains and pen and paper.
A wry point of view on the level of major media
Because, sometimes, you need a more advanced form of information to make good decisions about the future.
TIME Announces New Version Of Magazine Aimed At Adults
Rebirth of the “made in America” brand
by Eric Garland
Most consumer purchases in the United States, large and small, involve reading the tag “Made in China.” Everywhere. Everything. Baby toys, shower curtains, plastics of any sort, iPods, furniture – it seems lately that the only thing in America that isn’t made in China is AMERICANS. Maybe we’ll even figure out how to outsource that…
A tip for trend analysis – every major trend has a counter trend. The megatrend of Asian manufacturing is now leading to a powerful counter trend of repatriating operations to America, or at least to make it look like it’s a key component of your brand.
You can see this movement in the “manifesto” commercial for the new Jeep.
Will others competitors follow along?
Shadow inventory and other things you never read about
We don’t believe in conspiracies, nor do we believe the future is impossible to see. Rather, the information is there, hiding, waiting to be researched and analyzed.
Many executives fall into a cognitive trap – that if something is important enough to affect their business, then the business media will call it to their attention. Our experience says that this is not so. You need to do your own research and reach your own conclusions.
Take this graphic showing how long it would take to sell both existing and “shadow” real estate inventory. “Shadow inventory” is that which sits on a balance sheet, but yet is never offered to the market, and there’s tons of it out there now that neighborhoods and commercial developments are succumbing to foreclosure. This graphic says that we’ve got nearly ten YEARS worth of inventory, assuming we keep things the way they are for a decade.
How many of your colleagues know about this? Do you know how this fact might affect the much vaunted “recovery?” If it’s not your industry, would you come across this information by accident?
Likely, you need customized research. If you’re interested, we can help.
“This isn’t about growth, it’s about fragility”
by Eric Garland
We couldn’t love Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work any more here at CompFutures. His book The Black Swan has become an instant classic for its application of scenario planning to financial markets, showing us that humility and constant skepticism are our constant allies when thinking about future. His work shows us that past performance is not necessarily future reality, and that we probably aren’t as smart as we think we are when making predictions about an ultra-complex, superconnected world.
Plus, he called the financial crisis well before 2008. It’s a small group of contrarians who got that one right. (Ahem.)
For a while, Taleb was in a self-imposed media blackout, terribly weary of having expressed the same ideas time and time again about how “eternal growth” isn’t the only scenario nations and companies should expect. Black swans, he contended in endless interviews, were still on the horizon, circling with plans to challenge the orthodoxies of Keynesianism, Hayekian free markets, or any other old fashioned 20th century notions.
With the new round of economic stimulus, bailouts, and other such faith-based superstitious economic rituals, Taleb is back on the scene to discuss why, contra Krugman, debt-based stimulus packages are making us less safe, giving us growth wrapped in a dangerous package of fragility.
A wonderful, weary, frank interview.
Why don’t we listen to doom scenarios more?
by Eric Garland
A couple years after the world financial system quite predictably melted down, it seems some of the more mainstream journalists are becoming interested in what we call “wildcard scenarios.” Kevin Drum sat down with Reuters’ Felix Salmon and learned:
We should all be more worried about the potential of a mass casualty event — an epidemic, a gigantic earthquake, a massive hurricane, etc. — to annihilate the insurance industry and take out the rest of the financial system as a side effect. The AIDS epidemic nearly did it, Felix says, and missed only because most of its victims weren’t insured. A really big hurricane hitting Long Island could do it, though.
Yes indeed, why don’t we think more about low-probability, high-impact scenarios? It’s not because these are new concepts, oh no. Herman Kahn from RAND Corporation introduced scenario analysis in a modern context to deal with the possibility of nuclear war. He made his entire reputation by bringing leaders unwanted outcomes (notably, destroying the planet) and walking them backward (“backcasting“) toward ways to avoid negative consequences (such as everybody dying). We’ve had fifty years to absorb Kahn’s messages.
Why don’t we think more about wildcard scenarios? It’s not that they haven’t become popular in the business world. Shell’s scenario group supposedly got on the right side of the oil crisis of the 1970s and built the next forty years of success on their understanding of probable outcomes. Those responsible published heavily and built wonderful speaking careers telling others about how to think in terms of scenarios.
Heck, I even wrote a book about how anyone, from a high school kid up to a CEO, can use trend analysis, scenarios and implications for anything. Why didn’t I end up on Oprah’s couch, telling everybody how to save the world with scenario analysis? Now available to the masses in non-jargony language and using the future of beer as a case study! Fun for the whole family!
Let me ask you the reader – how prevalent is scenario thinking in your organization? How many of your senior leaders are willing to entertain the possibility – however slight and “wildcard-y” – that the world may turn out in a way that could make their decisions the wrong thing to do?
And, a better question, what percentage of executives would take such intellectual exploration – hypothetical, mind you! – as a direct challenge to their authority?
How many public relations and communications staffers would find conjecture about potential futures, turning up unfiltered on social media ,as a direct challenge to the message they are trying to craft?
These are the cultural questions of bureaucracy we in the intelligence and strategy world need to deal with before turning out anymore 1500-page analyses of potential world events. We should save the toner cartridges until we deal with how organizations actually work.
Social media, authority and intelligence
We finally have video and audio of last week’s Intelligence Collaborative event at which I discussed the impact of social media on what passes for authoritative information, and thus on decision making.
About Eric Garland
Eric is one of the world's pre-eminent thoughtleaders in forecasting and strategy. He helps leaders of business and government make critical decisions about their futures.Connect with us
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