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Category: Aging Populations

General Motors’ new concept car for dense urbanization

Friday, 07 January 2011 10:23 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

General Motors EN-VThough General Motors has had a rough few years, what with bankruptcy, you couldn’t be blamed if you thought that the company was just trying to get through the short term. It may surprise you, then, to hear that the company was actually one of the world’s most reliable sponsors of foresight, constantly scanning science, tech, demographic and ecological trends to inform new products and practices.

The press release for the Electric Networked Vehicle, pictured here at the CES show in Las Vegas, sounds like it was penned directly by a futurist:

Shanghai – By 2030, urban areas will be home to more than 60 percent of the world’s 8 billion people.  This will put tremendous pressure on a public infrastructure that is already struggling to meet the growing demand for transportation and basic services.

General Motors and its strategic partner, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. Group (SAIC), share a common vision for addressing the need for personal mobility through a radical change in personal urban transportation.  They are exploring several solutions for tomorrow’s drivers.  Among the most promising is a new vehicle form called EN-V.

I look at it and think it taps two megatrends – urbanization and aging populations. You can see it equally comfortable to zip around downtown Ho Chi Min City or the adult retirement/entertainment community.

And cripes – LOOK AT IT. This is futurist bait!

The TRILLION dollar gap in pension funds

Thursday, 18 February 2010 07:54 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Old People vs the Riot SquadEnvision, if you will, rioting octogenarians, phalanxes of retired teachers, government office managers and firefighters protesting the sudden cessation of payments from their pension funds.

Imagine some way that American states are going to overcome the apparently one trillion dollar gap in state pension funds while simultaneously dealing with an economy so clearly in transition.

Pause with me, as I add a little extra whisky to the morning coffee. That’s trillion with a T.

The Pew Center for the States sure had a headline for us all today with that report, especially speaking as we are about fiscal “challenges” that are popping up, threatening to return Greece to an olive-based economy, put Spain back in the Conquistador business, and convince us to give California back to Mexico if they agree to keep making the lease payments.

Funeral fun facts

Thursday, 04 February 2010 08:41 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

At the Tastee Diner this morning I had the pleasure of sitting next to a retired man who now makes his extra fun money driving a hearse. Little did I know I would be hearing about strategic trends and secondary implications of the economy’s transition.

Just two days ago, when lecturing at American University, I heard MBA students using the funeral industry as an example of the longer trend in industry consolidation, and simultaneously as an example of profitable opportunities resulting from the global megatrend of aging populations. The professor then spoke up to mention that formal funerals, which regular cost a five-digit sum in America, are sharply down in favor of cremations, around 25% year-over-year.

During breakfast, my new companion informed me that cremations are up, about 25% year over year – and that fewer funeral homes are able to afford their own hearses since their use is becoming comparatively more rare. The cause is assumed to be the lasting effects of the recession.

Twice with the same unusual trend in the same week? Clearly the futurism gods are telling me to look up this development further. And lo, on the Internet you can find voluminous and interesting trends and forecasts for the “celebratory services” industry.

Today, open up the yellow pages, find some unusual businesses and ask yourself what trends they must be experiencing. You will find interesting fodder for your own strategic thinking.

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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