It seems that the fundamentals of the banking industry were unsound, and that ultimately this led to a collapse. It’s a question of structural assumptions – what is underpinning our industry? What might change? When could a tipping point come? These heady questions are often left to us futurist-types, but it seems like this week it would be a good idea for everybody.

For example, I would like to propose a betting pool on when the healthcare industry in America will need/receive its bailout. Between the demographics of the Boom generation’s retirement and the massive wasteful spending of our current system, the now $2 trillion industry has been forecast to increase to $4 trillion by around 2020.

My assumption – which I state here – is that this is structurally unsound. The economy as a whole will crack long before we get to $4 trillion. If we don’t change the structure of the industry, it will require one of those bailouts. What year do you figure it might be? 2015? 2023? 2025?

What about your industry? What assumptions are you using to justify the long-term profitability of your company? This isn’t gloom and doom, things might be great for you. But what’s the structural long-term?

This is a good week to ask those questions. The implications of failing to do so seem quite clear.