We are watching with great interest the revolutionary impulses sweeping Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and perhaps more nation-states to come. This is a major development, though not unpredictable. There is much to be said, so we’ll take it in chunks.
First, the megatrend view: This is a story of aging populations and their bureaucracies versus swelling youth populations. China, Japan, Korea, the United States, Australia and most of Europe feature the largest populations of senior citizens in history. Moreover, their children’s generation, especially Gen X (born 1965 – 1980) is not sufficiently big enough to counterbalance their representation in government and business. The demographic counterbalance of youth exists, not in their industrialized countries, but in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. Old versus young, 20th century versus 21st, Cold War versus Assymetrical War, Core versus Gap, North versus south.
All of these tensions are at play in the countries where all the young people of the planet reside. The old are saddling the young with debt and stifling bureaucracies. The regimes critical to geopolitical balance in the Cold War still remain in power. Their benefactors were the northern industrial countries selling arms to the global south.
Old men and women don’t revolt. Young men and women with college educations do.
Whatever comes to pass in the Middle East this month, whether Mubarak goes swiftly or takes the Iranian stance, these tensions will only get more intense.
What do you think it means?
This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.
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