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Archive for August, 2010

Paul Denlinger: China’s Strategic Future

Wednesday, 11 August 2010 17:40 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

In this episode of the Competitive Futures Podcast, we interview Paul Denlinger of China Vortex, an author, investor, and executive advisor who specializes in U.S. – China commercial activity. He’s a rare bird indeed, completely fluent in Mandarin and English and totally familiar with the executive leadership mentality of both countries. In this episode, he gives the audience some forecasts about China that you (unfortunately) just won’t be hearing in other media:

  • The crash of 2008 shook China’s faith in the U.S. and sent their strategy away from engagement to the creation of a massive Chinese middle class they hope to drive the world economy
  • China will ramp their use of coal significantly on the way to dominating the world market for renewable energy
  • The markets for many raw materials are being cornered by China today and may leave other countries in the lurch if they don’t act soon

All of this, plus invaluable insight about how the Chinese mentality on the future differs considerably from that in the West.

We hope you enjoy listening to this interview as much as we did making it.

Russia is the new energy power player while America barbecues

Wednesday, 04 August 2010 16:46 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

While the media was arguing about whether Ben Bernanke knows what he’s talking about, while America was discussing the meaning of “double dip” recession, or hockey stick recession, or V-neck, or crew cut, or whatever, while Sarah Palin’s daughter got back with Levi or didn’t because he’s maybe got another girl pregnant or maybe she set it up to sell books or not -  something real and important was happening. As usual, Gregor MacDonald was on top of it:

“Russia has now surpassed Saudi Arabia to become the number one oil producer in the world. This is not an event that happened last month, either. The leap forward emerged as far back as 18 months ago, in October of 2008.”

It is usually a source of alarm when the Russians start taking the upper hand in things, but you would never know it by listening to American media, which is still in a tizzy over whether any major secrets were spilled by the Wikileaks documents showing us that Afghanistan is a tricky place to govern.

Incidentally, I hear that Wikileaks may come out next week with a chilling set of leak documents showing that fire is hot, puppies are cute, and that the trend for the sun setting in the west may continue.

Meanwhile, back in the rest of the evolving world:

It’s clear that Saudi Arabia has been a very different kind of oil producer than Russia, in the past ten years. I would encourage readers to think about, in particular, the period starting in late 2005 through late 2007 when against a backdrop of steadily increasing prices Saudi Arabia production fell by nearly a million barrels per day.

Obviously a major power shift will be going on as a result of this development. The priorities of the Middle East could change rapidly if the sheiks perceive a permanent contraction, and you can read history if you want to see what the Russians tend to do with significant power over their neighbors.

Retail on the verge of unprecedented strategic change

Monday, 02 August 2010 10:19 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

When people think of “radical futures” the words “nanotechnology” or “genomics” are usually not too far behind. Throw in a few comments about “transhumanism” and “the end of biology” and you’ve got a classic futurist-y look at the next twenty years. One concept people rarely think about when they hear of radical future transformation:

Retail.

That’s why Doug Stephens from Canada’s Retail Prophet is such a refreshing speaker on the future of business. He is to our knowledge the only speaker who talks about the upcoming changes in the world and what they mean for the business of retail. It’s counterintuitive when you think about how important that sector is to our economy and how little we discuss its future.

Below are clips from one of Doug’s recent speaking engagements. Look for more interviews from him when Competitive Futures re-launches its Podcast with a new iPhone/iPad application in a couple of weeks.

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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