Archive for July, 2010

Cisco’s futurist discusses “The Internet of Things”

Friday, 30 July 2010 09:59 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

I remember forecasts back as far as 1999 that by 2015 or 2020, the biggest user of the Internet by far would be other machines. Medical diagnostics, vending machines, cars – they numbered in the billions and all would have great reasons to share information – to say “I’m broken,” “I’m out of soda” or “Hey, you have early signs of cancer – go to the doctor.”

Now that we have WiFi throughout the industrialized world and emergent adoption of IPv6 (offering unlimited discrete IP addresses) this future Internet of Things could be right on schedule. Cisco’s chief futurist discusses this in a recent live broadcast, in addition to some basic ideas for how innovative companies use futurists to drive growth and profit.

Exhumation and Maradona: Antics and rotten fruit of the Bolivarian Revolution

Wednesday, 28 July 2010 11:27 Written by Dan Vecchi 2 Comments

Venezuela has become something between a Kundera power struggle with subjective jurisprudence and lack of freedom of speech and a Garcia novel where everything is unbelievable anywhere except for in the state of magical realism. As food shortages in Venezuela are aggravated by rotten food on the Colombian-Venezuelan border—a major blemish on Chavez’s ability to provide rations to the poor even if he had the oil money of the 2005 era—his saber-rattling begins once again. Chavez, with Argentine futbol superstar Diego Maradona at his side, has now severed relations with Colombia after Colombian President Uribe asked the OAS to look into Chavez’s relationship with the infamous left-wing narco-terrorists FARC and ELN. Although out-going President Uribe’s demands overstep his sovereignty, Chavez is not as innocent as he wants to be. He claims that the FARC and ELN should not be defined as terrorist organizations while there are links between Miraflores and FARC rebels. This is all happening as the Venezuelan economy is crumbling on top of the weak foundation on which it is based. In the midst of this, Chavez has exhumed the body of national independence leader, Simon Bolivar (who was more akin to Napolean than to Chavez), due to a Chavez-created conspiracy of a capitalist assassination of the Venezuelan idol 180 years ago.

The absurdity of farce and fiction in Caracas brings way too many questions as to the future stability of Venezuela. Reality has become subjective to the caprice of an authoritarian who has lost his ability to buy his political power. While Chavez’s friends (Morales in Bolivia, Correa in Ecuador, Ortega in Nicaragua, and to an extent the Kirchners in Argentina) may empower some of the poor, Chavez is leading Venezuela—and its poor and its rich—to the slaughter. For this egotistical bullishness, he will become a hero in the quixotic stylings of Ernesto Guevara, who is better remembered for an amorphous philosophy, a motorcycle bildungsroman, and mythical tattoos on Hollywood starlets, rather than the reality of suppression and corruption that appears to have been forgotten by history.

Rebirth of the “made in America” brand

Friday, 09 July 2010 12:28 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

Most consumer purchases in the United States, large and small, involve reading the tag “Made in China.” Everywhere. Everything. Baby toys, shower curtains, plastics of any sort, iPods, furniture – it seems lately that the only thing in America that isn’t made in China is AMERICANS. Maybe we’ll even figure out how to outsource that…

A tip for trend analysis – every major trend has a counter trend. The megatrend of Asian manufacturing is now leading to a powerful counter trend of repatriating operations to America, or at least to make it look like it’s a key component of your brand.

You can see this movement in the “manifesto” commercial for the new Jeep.

Will others competitors follow along?

China, Google, and two notions freedom

Thursday, 08 July 2010 16:55 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Paul Denlinger, a very astute observer of U.S.-China business relations has a fascinating piece up at China Vortex discussing two very different notions of freedom of information that are colliding soon.

One view, ostensibly “American,” is being espoused by Google, Facebook, and their respective CEOs. In short, this view is the early Internet mantra of “Information Wants to Be Free.” Opposing them is the Chinese government, which obviously believes that government should play a role deciding which information goes where in a society.

Read Denlinger’s analysis and decide whether the issue of “information sovereignty” and “individual rights” are as clear as you might think. It just goes to show the incredible role culture needs to play in all of our analyses of the market.

Economic policy and politics need to meet in the middle

Thursday, 08 July 2010 11:12 Written by Dan Vecchi 0 Comments

While economic policy and national politics have always been a couple, sometimes the relationship can be strained by the injection of partisanship. The current crisis requires insight into the actual issues to make policy suggestions. The United States is running a risk by having its economics so colored by bitter partisan divisions, as this is one area where there needs to be solidarity.

In a thought provoking GPS episode, Fareed Zakaria interviews two very different schools of thought on the actions necessary. His conclusions are that we must meet in the middle of the political agendas and look at the economic possibilities. Essentially, his view is that the U.S. government needs to spend more now while also reviewing entitlement programs to make sure each dollar is spent in the most efficient manner – a classic centrist approach.

It is always a risk for a country when political in-fighting colors international economic policy. That is true for Greece, Spain, China, Iceland, and, of course, the United States.

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This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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