One of the great economic tensions right now in the Great Transition is between national organizations and smaller bureaucracies at the edge. For example: the economy melts down from an incredibly predictable housing bubble crash after a decade of equity destruction and flat GDP growth. Banks should fall, currencies should be scrambled. At the last minute, national governments step in, flood new printed money into the market, force stronger megabanks to buy weaker ones and – WHEW – everything can go back to normal.
The problem is, not everybody is a national government or a megabank with cellphone access to the Secretary of the Treasury. That’s when we see the smaller organizations at the edge begin to suffer the long term effects of this Transition.
We’ve spoken quite a bit about states, provinces, and smaller countries. Now, cities, municipal corporations, are on the chopping block. Harrisburg, capitol of Pennsylvania, is considering Chapter 9 bankruptcy as it considers its inability to meet the debt payments on critical infrastructure investments.
Today, it seems that a little backwoods village out west called Los Angeles is out of cash, may miss payments to vendors, and is in bad need of emergency financing.
Nation-states have rights that smaller units do not. Nations – provinces – cities – neighborhoods – individuals. If systems don’t work from the individuals on up, we predict an increase in bureaucratic peccadillos that nobody can solve through talent and hard work alone.
This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.
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